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SKIVT-L  March 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L March 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 15 Mar 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (281 lines)

Expires:201903150800;;399354
FPUS51 KBTV 150529
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
124 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019


VTZ006-150800-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
124 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 40. South winds 15 to 20 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A chance of rain showers. A chance of snow showers after
midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 17. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 10 to 15. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 10 to 15. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 

$$


Expires:201903151100;;409571
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  49  43  80 S17G28    29.65F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    40  39  97 S7        29.80R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  41  38  89 VRB3      29.75F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  39  82 MISG      29.78S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    40  37  87 E5        29.79F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    43  40  88 S5        29.72F                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    45  41  86 E14G23    29.75R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    43  39  86 CALM      29.82S                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  49  46  88 S17G30    29.63F                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    41  38  89 S13G18    29.73F                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    57  46  66 VRB6      29.76S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A S3          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     41 N/A N/A W3          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A SW32G63     N/A  WCI  32          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  45  93 S30G40      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  39  87 S30         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  41  87 S20         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;402638
FXUS61 KBTV 150729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty south to southwesterly winds will bring warm conditions
today, with valley temperatures reaching the upper 50s to lower
60s. The warm temperatures, along with light precipitation with
an approaching front this morning, will contribute to snowmelt
and rises along area waterways with potential breakup of ice 
cover. Rising river levels and possible ice jams may result in 
localized flooding today into Saturday. Temperatures will return
to more seasonable mid-March levels for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Friday...Core of strongest swly 850mb winds
(55-65kts) will cross nrn NY and VT between 09-12Z this morning,
in advance of weak frontal bndry shifting ewd across wrn NY and
wrn PA. Pre-frontal showers will generally cross the region and
exit east of VT by 14-15Z. The quick movement of the showers 
combined with downslope 850mb flow in the Champlain Valley will
keep expected precipitation rather light, consistent with
previous forecasts. Also, despite precipitable water axis with
values of 0.9-1" in advance of the front, low-level convergence
is relatively weak with just a modest wind shift across the 
upstream frontal zone. Generally looking at rainfall <0.1" in 
the Champlain Valley, and 0.10" to 0.25" elsewhere this 
morning...likely highest in the northern Adirondacks before 
dawn. 

Though light rainfall will not contribute much to hydro threat,
still looking at potential river ice breakup starting later
today and continuing into tonight and Saturday due to 
significant thawing degree hours and snowmelt. See the Hydro 
section below for further details. Temperatures are remaining 
quite mild in most areas early this morning; south winds 
10-20mph in the Champlain Valley has kept BTV in the upper 40s 
through the pre-dawn hours. Similar temperatures are also in 
place across nrn NY. A few sheltered valley locations east of 
the Greens remain in the upper 30s with stable PBL conditions 
and absence of mixing. In the wake of the shower activity this 
morning and ahead of the weak cold front, anticipate a period of
partly sunny conditions and more widespread low-level mixing, 
which will help push valley temperatures into the upper 50s to 
lower 60s early this afternoon. Went closer to warmer GFS-MOS 
temps, as NAM seems unduly influenced by diabatic cooling 
effects from the underlying snowpack. Winds will peak during the
daylight hours, generally 15-25 mph, with gusts 30-35 mph 
possible for nrn NY and the Champlain Valley at times. Winds 
gradually veer SWLY tonight and diminish closer to 10 mph for 
tonight. Modest low- level CAA will bring temperatures back down
into the low- mid 30s for early Saturday morning lows. Also, 
another low-level trough and modest moisture from the Great 
Lakes will help generate some mainly orographic shower activity
late tonight into the day Saturday. Vertical profiles should be
cold enough for snow in most locations. May see 1-3" across the
northern Adirondacks and up to 1-2" for the northern Green Mtns
from 06Z tonight through Saturday. Accumulating snow will 
mainly be limited to elevations above 1000', as valley 
temperatures on Saturday climb to near 40F. Breezy conditions 
will also be widespread on Saturday with steepening low-level 
lapse rates; 10-m winds generally westerly 10-20 mph with gusts 
to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Friday...The arrival of drier air from the 
northwest and subtle height rises in the wake of a departing 
shortwave will allowing any lingering snow showers to diminish 
Saturday night.  Ongoing cold air advection with resultant 
low-level instability will allow for gusty (10-20 mph) 
westerly/northwesterly winds to continue through the night. Lows
will fall into the teens to low 20s. 

Sunday will be colder with a brisk breeze, and dry as high
pressure builds. Highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Friday...Very quiet weather to begin the next 
week in the absence of any major synoptic systems.  In the 
upper-levels, broad cyclonic flow will remain over the North 
Country through at least mid-week, which will keep the door open
for weak shortwaves to traverse the region and spark a light 
snow shower here or there. This far out, it's difficult to 
accurately time these features, but the very dry nature of the 
continental air mass overhead will ensure that any snow showers 
that do materialize will be light and generally unimpactful with
little to no accumulation. Temperatures Sunday night through 
Tuesday will be below-normal, with highs expected to be in the 
upper 20s/low 30s, and lows in the single digits/teens. 

Southerly flow will commence midweek, allowing for a warming
trend for the second half of next week. Wednesday through Friday
will see highs near or just above seasonal norms. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Pre-frontal rainband moving across nrn NY
and VT early this morning will bring intervals of MVFR ceilings
and vsby through 15Z. Thereafter, should see most locations
return VFR with SCT-BKN035-050. A low-level jet in place during
the pre-dawn hours brings LLWS all sites except BTV through 
11-12Z. At BTV, sfc winds generally south 15G25kt through 18Z, 
then gradually becoming southwesterly this afternoon with 
passage of a weak front. Winds will remain southwesterly tonight
at all TAF locations, but generally weaken to 5-10kts. Also for
tonight, will see development of mountain rain/snow showers.
With SW flow, it appears KSLK will have favored orographic
ascent for intervals of MVFR conditions in snow showers after 
01Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect from 8 am today through 8 pm 
Saturday for the entire forecast area except Grand Isle County 
VT. No significant changes in expectations. While forecast 
rainfall associated with pre-frontal showers this morning 
continues to look modest (0.15 inches to 0.35 inches, highest 
over the Adirondacks), the snowmelt associated with temperatures
warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s today will likely prove
problematic in the form of ice jam potential. Runoff from 
melting snow and light rainfall will result in rising river 
levels by several feet today. We feel pretty strongly that river
ice will begin to breakup later in the day today and continue 
tonight/Saturday as most main stem rivers rise several feet. Not
looking for open water flooding, but areas where any existing 
or developing ice jams develop will result in the potential for 
localized flooding. River ice thickness ranges up to 12 inches 
to 18 inches in spots, and the cold start to March has 
maintained the overall integrity/hardness of the ice quite well.
The forecast thawing degree hours range from 500-600 across 
central and eastern VT, and generally 600-800 from the Champlain
Valley westward across northern NY. This is generally 
sufficient for ice breakup/movement, and would anticipate the 
ice jam threat to start late in the day today. It appears river 
levels will crest later tonight into Saturday morning, so the 
threat of ice jams will continue into Saturday. 

While the exact locations of any upcoming ice jams is
unpredictable, any areas with existing ice jams that have been 
frozen in place will be especially vulnerable to localized 
flooding. River levels can change suddenly during the breakup of
river ice. Any observed flooding affecting roadways should be 
reported to local law enforcement.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday 
     evening for VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday 
     evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 1
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