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SKIVT-L  March 2019, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2019, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 22 Mar 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (263 lines)

Expires:201903222000;;736379
FPUS51 KBTV 220749
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019


VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
346 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Rain, snow. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs
in the mid 30s. East winds around 10 mph, becoming north with gusts
up to 25 mph this afternoon. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches.
Breezy with lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.SATURDAY...Snow in the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of
snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 6 to
10 inches. Breezy with highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to
25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 20. West winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Lows
around 20. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 10 above.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.

$$


Expires:201903221100;;742839
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 36 33 89 SE5 29.58F
MONTPELIER LGT SNOW 32 32 100 NE5 29.60F FOG WCI 27
MORRISVILLE LGT SNOW 33 33 100 N5 29.59F FOG WCI 29
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 33 33 100 MISG 29.59F
LYNDONVILLE* LGT SNOW 32 32 99 N6 29.60F WCI 26
MIDDLEBURY* LGT SNOW 32 32 99 N3 29.55F
RUTLAND* FLURRIES 35 31 85 CALM 29.52F
SPRINGFIELD MIX PCPN 32 32 100 CALM 29.54F
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 34 34 100 E7 29.60F WCI 28
NEWPORT* LGT SNOW 32 32 100 E6 29.61F WCI 26
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 38 32 79 CALM 29.45F
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A NE2 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 32 N/A N/A NE1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 28 N/A N/A E20 N/A WCI 15

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 34 34 100 E6 N/A WCI 29
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 34 34 100 N8 N/A WCI 27
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 37 34 87 NW8 N/A WCI 31

$$


Expires:No;;736276
FXUS61 KBTV 220745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A late season winter storm will affect the area through
Saturday morning with valley rain and snow, and heavier mountain
snows. Mainly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday
before a cold front ushers in much colder air for Monday into
Tuesday of next week. By later in the work week temperatures
moderate considerably.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All Winter Storm Warnings and winter Weather Advisories remain
in effect for through Saturday morning...

As of 345 AM EDT Friday...Mainly a persistence forecast in
regard to the overall weather theme over the next 42 hours as
deepening coastal low pressure lifts northeast through the
region. Still a complex evolution of this system as competing
upper closed lows consolidate over time while current surface
center near KACY transfers energy further east near the
benchmark which will take over as the primary. A such most of
the forecast effort overnight was to tease out small scale
details in p-type/PoP/wind fields. Our idea of increasing
coverage of valley rains or mixed rains/snows and higher
elevation snows today still looks good with highest
probabilities of accumulations generally above 1000 feet. The
devil lies in the details of course and given p-type will be
heavily governed by near surface temperatures any dynamical wet
bulb cooling processes could cool values just enough to cause
some variability at times in the valleys. Similar to last night
I leaned on the colder side of guidance and have a hard time
buying MET/MAV guidance showing temperatures rising into the
lower 40s for example at KBTV on developing northerly flow this
afternoon. Used a multi-model blend including some raw model
output and 20% of our prior official data to yield highs ranging
through the 30s today depending on locale.

By later this afternoon and especially into this evening the now
consolidated and fairly deep surface low center will be pushing into
the Gulf of Maine or near the Maine mid-coast. This will allow back
side deformational processes to blossom while winds trend
north/northwesterly and increase steadily under a tightening
pressure gradient. Surface temperatures will begin to slowly cool
allowing a transition to all snow over time. As the night progresses
the snowfall will take on an orographic character as the surface low
begins to pull slowly away and become heavier at times. Our
messaging continues to highlight this period (600 pm to 800 am) as
the most impactful when the combination of moderate to locally heavy
snow and gusty winds lead to difficult travel and isolated power
outages. Our storm total snowfall was modified slightly to show a
sharper orographic character but the overall idea remains the same
with advisory areas seeing 2-7" and warning areas receiving a
general 6-12". The northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks and spine
of the Greens should see the heaviest totals from 10-18". Low
temperatures again a blend of guidance similar to that used for
today's highs - upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...On Saturday occluded surface low
pulls away fairly quickly given the lack of downstream blocking
and progressive nature of the upper flow pushing in from the
west/northwest. Steadier light snows early taper off by mid-day
if not sooner with skies trending partly to mostly sunny from
mid afternoon onward. Highs will be on the chilly side from the
upper 20s to mid 30s under an abating but still gusty northwest
wind.

Quiet weather then returns for Saturday night into Sunday as surface
high pressure builds to our south and synoptic flow trends
southwesterly over time. Low temperatures to bottom out in the upper
teens to mid 20s (near normal) with highs on Sunday returning,
albeit briefly, to milder levels in the 40s. By later in the day on
Sunday a strong polar front will approach the region from the north
along with increasing clouds and chances for rain/snow shower
activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...A cold front moves southward from
Canada into the region Sunday night rather quickly and is south
of the CWA late Monday morning. Precipitation will be light and
scattered and mainly across northern counties with a mix of rain
and snow showers early on depending on elevation before
trending to all snow early Monday morning. QPF will not be
significant with up to a tenth of an inch of precip with an inch
or so of snow in the north to a trace in the south. Mountains
could be a bit more with a few inches of snow possible. High
temps will be in the 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold and dry as a Canadian airmass
moves south under high pressure and northwest flow aloft. Skies will
be mainly sunny but highs will in the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue and a
bit milder on Wed with highs mostly in the 30s. The coldest morning
looks to be Wed with lows from 5 to 15.

An upper level ridge moves across the region late Wed and into Thu,
which will bring a reprieve from the cold as temperatures return to
seasonal levels by Thursday with highs in the 40s near to near
50.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Precipitation will overspread the TAF
sites during the overnight hours from south to north. Near-
surface temperatures are initially in the mid-upr 30s, likely
limiting snow to SLK/MPV, with a rain/snow mix at the remaining
TAF sites. Conditions will generally trend MVFR after 09Z with
HIR TRRN OBSCD. Winds through early-morning Friday generally
S-SE, but shifting NWLY Friday morning, including around 13Z at
BTV. As this occurs, enough cooling occurs to allow most of the
precipitation to transition to wet snow areawide. Will also see
a trend toward more widespread IFR cigs/vsby through the
daylight period Friday. N-NW winds will increase to around
10-12kts areawide Friday afternoon with a few gusts 20-25kts,
with periods of moderate to heavy snow possible. Anticipate
increasing impacts to aviation ground ops toward the end of the
TAF period (late aftn-eve Friday).

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until noon EDT Saturday for VTZ003-004-
     006-016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Saturday for VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for VTZ007-008-
     010-012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until noon EDT Saturday for NYZ029>031-
     034.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Saturday for NYZ026-027-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Saturday for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Verasamy/Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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February 2002, Week 1
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