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SKIVT-L  March 2019, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2019, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 22 Mar 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (263 lines)

Expires:201903222000;;736379
FPUS51 KBTV 220749
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019


VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
346 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Rain, snow. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs
in the mid 30s. East winds around 10 mph, becoming north with gusts
up to 25 mph this afternoon. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches.
Breezy with lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Snow in the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of
snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 6 to
10 inches. Breezy with highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to
25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 20. West winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Lows
around 20. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 

$$


Expires:201903221100;;742839
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  36  33  89 SE5       29.58F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  32  32 100 NE5       29.60F FOG     WCI  27  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  33  33 100 N5        29.59F FOG     WCI  29  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  33 100 MISG      29.59F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  32  32  99 N6        29.60F WCI  26          
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW  32  32  99 N3        29.55F                  
RUTLAND*       FLURRIES  35  31  85 CALM      29.52F                  
SPRINGFIELD    MIX PCPN  32  32 100 CALM      29.54F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    34  34 100 E7        29.60F WCI  28          
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  32  32 100 E6        29.61F WCI  26          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    38  32  79 CALM      29.45F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A NE2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     32 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A E20         N/A  WCI  15          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  34 100 E6          N/A  WCI  29          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  34 100 N8          N/A  WCI  27          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  34  87 NW8         N/A  WCI  31          

$$


Expires:No;;736276
FXUS61 KBTV 220745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A late season winter storm will affect the area through 
Saturday morning with valley rain and snow, and heavier mountain
snows. Mainly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday 
before a cold front ushers in much colder air for Monday into 
Tuesday of next week. By later in the work week temperatures 
moderate considerably.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All Winter Storm Warnings and winter Weather Advisories remain 
in effect for through Saturday morning...

As of 345 AM EDT Friday...Mainly a persistence forecast in 
regard to the overall weather theme over the next 42 hours as 
deepening coastal low pressure lifts northeast through the 
region. Still a complex evolution of this system as competing 
upper closed lows consolidate over time while current surface 
center near KACY transfers energy further east near the 
benchmark which will take over as the primary. A such most of
the forecast effort overnight was to tease out small scale
details in p-type/PoP/wind fields. Our idea of increasing 
coverage of valley rains or mixed rains/snows and higher 
elevation snows today still looks good with highest 
probabilities of accumulations generally above 1000 feet. The 
devil lies in the details of course and given p-type will be 
heavily governed by near surface temperatures any dynamical wet 
bulb cooling processes could cool values just enough to cause 
some variability at times in the valleys. Similar to last night 
I leaned on the colder side of guidance and have a hard time 
buying MET/MAV guidance showing temperatures rising into the 
lower 40s for example at KBTV on developing northerly flow this 
afternoon. Used a multi-model blend including some raw model 
output and 20% of our prior official data to yield highs ranging
through the 30s today depending on locale.

By later this afternoon and especially into this evening the now 
consolidated and fairly deep surface low center will be pushing into 
the Gulf of Maine or near the Maine mid-coast. This will allow back 
side deformational processes to blossom while winds trend 
north/northwesterly and increase steadily under a tightening 
pressure gradient. Surface temperatures will begin to slowly cool 
allowing a transition to all snow over time. As the night progresses 
the snowfall will take on an orographic character as the surface low 
begins to pull slowly away and become heavier at times. Our 
messaging continues to highlight this period (600 pm to 800 am) as 
the most impactful when the combination of moderate to locally heavy 
snow and gusty winds lead to difficult travel and isolated power 
outages. Our storm total snowfall was modified slightly to show a 
sharper orographic character but the overall idea remains the same 
with advisory areas seeing 2-7" and warning areas receiving a 
general 6-12". The northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks and spine 
of the Greens should see the heaviest totals from 10-18". Low 
temperatures again a blend of guidance similar to that used for 
today's highs - upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...On Saturday occluded surface low 
pulls away fairly quickly given the lack of downstream blocking 
and progressive nature of the upper flow pushing in from the 
west/northwest. Steadier light snows early taper off by mid-day 
if not sooner with skies trending partly to mostly sunny from 
mid afternoon onward. Highs will be on the chilly side from the 
upper 20s to mid 30s under an abating but still gusty northwest 
wind.

Quiet weather then returns for Saturday night into Sunday as surface 
high pressure builds to our south and synoptic flow trends 
southwesterly over time. Low temperatures to bottom out in the upper 
teens to mid 20s (near normal) with highs on Sunday returning, 
albeit briefly, to milder levels in the 40s. By later in the day on 
Sunday a strong polar front will approach the region from the north 
along with increasing clouds and chances for rain/snow shower 
activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...A cold front moves southward from 
Canada into the region Sunday night rather quickly and is south 
of the CWA late Monday morning. Precipitation will be light and 
scattered and mainly across northern counties with a mix of rain
and snow showers early on depending on elevation before 
trending to all snow early Monday morning. QPF will not be 
significant with up to a tenth of an inch of precip with an inch
or so of snow in the north to a trace in the south. Mountains 
could be a bit more with a few inches of snow possible. High 
temps will be in the 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold and dry as a Canadian airmass 
moves south under high pressure and northwest flow aloft. Skies will 
be mainly sunny but highs will in the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue and a 
bit milder on Wed with highs mostly in the 30s. The coldest morning 
looks to be Wed with lows from 5 to 15.

An upper level ridge moves across the region late Wed and into Thu, 
which will bring a reprieve from the cold as temperatures return to 
seasonal levels by Thursday with highs in the 40s near to near
50.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Precipitation will overspread the TAF
sites during the overnight hours from south to north. Near-
surface temperatures are initially in the mid-upr 30s, likely
limiting snow to SLK/MPV, with a rain/snow mix at the remaining
TAF sites. Conditions will generally trend MVFR after 09Z with 
HIR TRRN OBSCD. Winds through early-morning Friday generally 
S-SE, but shifting NWLY Friday morning, including around 13Z at 
BTV. As this occurs, enough cooling occurs to allow most of the 
precipitation to transition to wet snow areawide. Will also see 
a trend toward more widespread IFR cigs/vsby through the 
daylight period Friday. N-NW winds will increase to around 
10-12kts areawide Friday afternoon with a few gusts 20-25kts, 
with periods of moderate to heavy snow possible. Anticipate 
increasing impacts to aviation ground ops toward the end of the 
TAF period (late aftn-eve Friday). 

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until noon EDT Saturday for VTZ003-004-
     006-016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT 
     Saturday for VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for VTZ007-008-
     010-012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until noon EDT Saturday for NYZ029>031-
     034.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT 
     Saturday for NYZ026-027-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT 
     Saturday for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Verasamy/Banacos

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April 2010, Week 5
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April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
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