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SKIVT-L  May 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L May 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 6 May 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (206 lines)

Expires:201905062000;;027659
FPUS51 KBTV 061032
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EDT Mon May 6 2019


VTZ006-062000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
628 AM EDT Mon May 6 2019

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the
upper 60s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then cloudy with a chance
of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Light and variable
winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 60s. 

$$


Expires:201905061100;;027594
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      48  45  89 E3        29.91R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       42  40  92 S3        29.97R VSB<1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  44 100 MISG      29.94R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       41  40  97 CALM      29.96R VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      44  43  96 S3        29.92R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      47  46  97 CALM      29.93R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       46  45  96 W3        29.93R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      47  46  97 CALM      29.92R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      44  44 100 S5        29.95R FOG              
BENNINGTON     FOG       47  45  93 CALM      29.91R VSB 1/4          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A S1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A S7          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  46  93 S7          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  46  93 SE8         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  48  93 S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;019558
FXUS61 KBTV 060718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Mon May 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief ridge of high pressure building over the region will provide 
partly to mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures in the 60s and 
70s today before a cold front brings another round of rain showers 
tonight through Tuesday. Dry and unseasonably cool conditions are 
expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then our next system 
approaches Thursday with more rain on tap to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...Shortwave energy passing southeast of the
region will pull clouds away from the region today with morning
clouds across central/eastern areas giving way to increasing
sunshine through the day. 925mb temps of +12-15C and good mixing
will support highs well into the 60s area-wide with some low 70s
likely across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Late in the
day mid/high clouds will begin to increase from west to east
associated with a cold front which will pass through the region
tonight through Tuesday. Due to relatively weak mid-level flow of
only 20-30kts at 850mb the front will be slow to traverse the region
with showers working into northern New York tonight, but not into
Vermont until Tuesday morning. Overall not looking at a washout as
the best upper dynamics pass north of the border but a general tenth
to perhaps quarter inch of QPF is likely. Lows tonight will be mild
under increasing cloud cover in the mid 40s to low 50s, and highs
Tuesday cool in the 50s to locally 60s in southern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...Cold front clears south by Tuesday 
evening with high pressure nosing down from southern Canada over
time through the overnight hours and into Wednesday. As such, a
dry forecast will be maintained for these periods under light 
northerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Post-
frontal temperatures trend seasonably cool with lows Tuesday 
night mainly in the 30s and corresponding highs on Wednesday in 
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...After a cool and chilly night on 
Wednesday a trend toward more inclement weather then returns by 
later in the work week as our cool and wet spring pattern looks 
to continue. The main features during this period will be low 
pressure driving northeastward into the Great Lakes states which
will push a distinct warm front into the region along with 
ample clouds and rainfall, especially by later Thursday into the
first half of Friday. Some timing differences with this feature
remain in the globals this morning, but consensus is good on a 
solid 24 hour rainfall on the order of 0.75 to 1.5 inches by 
Friday afternoon when surface occlusion pushes through. This 
seems reasonable given ample isentropic lift with the warm front
and persistent showery weather in the warm sector during which 
precipitable water values will range from 1.0 to 1.5 inches. 

By next weekend somewhat better weather returns under weak high
pressure though admittedly there remains inconsistency in model
solutions at this time range. Saturday for now looks to be the 
better day under partly cloudy skies and highs returning to 
somewhat more normal values from the mid 50s to lower 60s. On 
Sunday the GFS wants to drive another cold front through the 
area while the Euro lacks this feature. For now will keep a 
lower-end 20/30 PoP until we can get a better handle on things 
offering temperatures near seasonal norms in the lower to mid 
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Outside of some LIFR fog/stratus at KSLK
overnight, conditions should be VFR through the period with high
clouds moving east of the region tonight and just some fair
weather clouds expected through the day. Winds will be light
south/southwest less than 9 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Friday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
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