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SKIVT-L  May 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L May 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 7 May 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (231 lines)

Expires:201905072000;;077959
FPUS51 KBTV 071008
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
604 AM EDT Tue May 7 2019


VTZ006-072000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
604 AM EDT Tue May 7 2019

.TODAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph this morning, becoming light and variable. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers until
midnight, then mostly clear after midnight. Patchy frost after
midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 30 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Patchy frost in the morning. Sunny. Highs in the lower
50s. North winds around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds
around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 50s. East winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s.

$$


Expires:201905071100;;079001
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 07 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 59 49 69 S15 30.00R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 52 41 66 SE5 30.06R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 52 46 80 CALM 30.01S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 53 38 56 MISG 30.02R
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 49 37 61 SE3 30.05R
MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 56 49 74 S8 30.03F
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 52 44 74 SE8 30.06S
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 43 39 86 CALM 30.09S
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 56 49 76 NW3 30.01R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 51 42 72 SE9 30.02R
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 51 46 83 CALM 30.08S
ISLAND POND* N/A 50 N/A N/A N2 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 43 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 50 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 46 N/A N/A W25 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 55 48 76 S14G20 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 52 46 82 S20 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 59 52 77 S10 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;071078
FXUS61 KBTV 070729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Tue May 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers are expected by late morning into mid afternoon,
mainly across central and southern counties as a cold front crosses
the area. Conditions trend cooler and drier behind the front tonight
into Wednesday as Canadian high pressure builds southward. Inclement
weather with periods of light rain returns by Thursday into Friday
before fair and milder weather return by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast largely remains on
track for today as a well advertised cold front crosses the
area. Latest hi-res guidance indicates that the front will pass
through mainly dry across far northern counties by late morning
to early afternoon with a higher threat of showers across
central and southern counties generally along and south of a
KOGS-KSLK-KBTV-K1V4 line as overnight decaying convection across
the lower Great Lakes tracks east-northeasterly. QPF from this
feature to remain light, ranging from only a few hundredths
along the intl. border and generally less than a quarter inch
elsewhere save the higher terrain of the southern Greens where
scattered totals to near 0.40" are possible. High temperatures
to average considerably cooler today given ample clouds and
proximity of the frontal boundary - mainly 50s.

Quiet weather returns by tonight into Wednesday as the front pushes
well south and Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Skies
to trend partly cloudy this evening, then mostly clear overnight
into Wednesday as large-scale drying and subsidence evolve. With
light winds and good radiative effects low temperatures will trend
on the chilly side tonight with most areas bottoming out in the 30s
and a few upper 20s in favored northern mountain hollows. As such,
some patchy frost will be likely in areas outside the Champlain and
lower CT River Valleys. Highs on Wednesday once again mainly in the
50s, though light winds and strong spring sunshine should make the
seasonably cool readings actually feel fairly nice.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Tuesday...We start out with ridging at all
levels Wed ngt with trof/shortwave in Plains slowly lifting NE
into Canada with surface low moving into the Great Lakes. Much
of the upper level support and warm/moist air advection is
across Great Lakes Wed ngt with potential climological pattern
of some early warm air advection showers moving across northern
NY Thursday morning with a majority holding off til late
Thursday-Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface low slowly moving northeast across
Great Lakes Thu Ngt - Fri with persiestent warm air advection
pattern across our area with PWATS 1-1.5 inches for some decent
rainfall Thu ngt-early Friday morning.

We get into brief warm sector/dry slot on Friday awaiting
upstream shortwave to kick cold front through late Friday-Friday
night with more showery rainfall ending favorably by Saturday
morning. Early model rainfall consensus appears to range from
3/4 to 1 inch in southern VT with 1-2 inches possible in
NY/Northern VT.

A few weeks ago that would have caused problems but drying
ahead of this system, river levels returning to near normal and
no snowmelt should make this rainfall manageable. Additionally,
as we've recently have seen with past events that model QPF this
far in advance has appeared overdone, thus will need to wait
and see and currently thinking is lowering amounts.

Lake Champlain lake level has been on a nice but slow recession,
currently at 100.6 feet. Upcoming rainfall should stabilize that
recession or perhaps temporarily reverse, although slightly, that
trend. No expectations for the lake to approach 101 feet at this
time.

Clearing on Saturday with departing system and some shortwave
ridging between exiting system and another trof/shortwave dropping
into the northern MS river Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday which
will deliver a surface low across OH River Vly and south of New
England Monday but upper support traveling across area may bring a
few showers if tapped into enough moisture.

Thus...weekend looking good for now with Highs around 60 on Saturday
and in the 60s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Cold front to cross the area today with
a 2-4 hour window of showers, focused mainly along a KSLK-KBTV
line southward per most recent hi-res model data. Cigs mainly
BKN/OVC VFR, though a period of MVFR likely at selected
terminals later this morning into early afternoon near and
immediately behind the frontal passage. Winds light
south/southwesterly through 10-14Z, shifting north/northwesterly
in the 14-18Z time frame as the front passes. After 00Z front
clears well south with skies scattering out and winds trending
light.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
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April 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
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February 2004, Week 3
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
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July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
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June 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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