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SKIVT-L  May 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L May 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 2 May 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (218 lines)

Expires:201905022000;;814118
FPUS51 KBTV 020914
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
509 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019


VTZ006-022000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
509 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019

.TODAY...Cloudy. Rain likely this morning. Highs in the upper 40s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.FRIDAY...A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 60. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:201905021100;;816877
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 02 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    41  39  93 NW5       30.09R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  40  39  97 CALM      30.13R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  41  39  93 N7        30.12R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  41 100 MISG      30.10S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       39  38  98 CALM      30.13R VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    47  46  97 CALM      30.08R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    47  47 100 CALM      30.07R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    45  43  93 CALM      30.10R                  
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   41  41 100 CALM      30.10R                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   38  38 100 CALM      30.12S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  46  90 S3        30.06S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     37 N/A N/A NE3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A NE2         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A SW20        N/A  WCI  30          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  41 100 SW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  39 100 NW6         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  39 100 N16         N/A  WCI  30          

$$


Expires:No;;809232
FXUS61 KBTV 020742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary across the North Country this morning 
will serve as the focus for additional rainfall again Friday and 
Friday night after a dry, yet cloudy and cool day today. Drier 
conditions are expected across the region Saturday along with more 
seasonal temperatures, followed by continued drying across northern 
areas and a chance for showers across southern Vermont on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Thursday...A nearly stationary to stalled frontal
zone continues to try and work into the region this morning with a
weak surface low and associated rainfall exiting east of the area.
Observed rainfall across the region over the past 12hrs was quite a
bit less than we had forecast with most stations reporting from a
tenth to 3 tenths, which is about half of what we thought we'd see.
This is good news though as we really don't need anymore rain right
now and should keep river/lake levels steady. For today, we'll be
in-between systems with weak low pressure exiting to our east this
morning while another low riding along the stalled frontal zone
won't approach until early Friday morning. A weak upper ridge builds
over the region today with soundings showing some significant drying
aloft, but also a strong subsidence inversion developing below 4000
feet which will trap in an abundance of low level moisture. Based on
forecast soundings, feel there's little chance of seeing any sun
today, which will keep temps on the cool side of normal again, only
topping out in the low 50s from the Champlain Valley westward, and
mid/upper 40s east of the Green Mountain Spine.

For tonight, thick cloud cover will act to keep temps right around
normal in the 40s, and while not specifically forecast at this time,
I could see some areas of fog developing as winds will become light
to nil. Early Friday morning our next system arrives as another weak
low will ride northeast from the Ohio Valley along the aforementioned
stalled frontal zone over our region. Widespread light rain 
will develop from west to east after sunrise and persist through
the day before tapering off towards sunset. A light southerly 
flow working into the region will help to bump temps up a bit 
from previous days, but only into the mid/upper 50s which will 
still be below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Thursday...Relatively sharp precipitation gradient
associated with a cold front will exist over the area early 
Friday evening. Cold front is rather progressive so the showers 
will be ending from west to east through the first half of the 
night with dry weather expected overnight. Plenty of cloud cover
will persist and this will keep low temperatures in the 40s 
Friday night. Westerly flow aloft will exist over the area on 
Saturday and dry weather is expected. There should still be 
cloud cover over the area...but some sunshine is expected with 
high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Thursday...Trends in the data suggest bulk of
precipitation associated with a shortwave trough moving east-
northeast out of the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday should
remain south of the area. With a general west to east flow aloft
over the area there should be a sharp north to south gradient across
the area during this time period. Areas near the international
border should be dry transitioning to a slight chance over central
sections and a chance of showers for our southern areas. Rainfall
amounts will be less than a quarter inch from this system. Highs on
Sunday will be in the upper 50s over southern areas with lower 60s
elsewhere. Dry weather is expected for all areas Sunday night with a
fast moving cold front moving into the area later on Monday for a
chance of showers for all areas. Highs on Monday should be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s and we should see a repeat of those readings on
Tuesday with high pressure over the area and relatively dry weather.
A frontal system moves into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
for another chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mix of MVFR/IFR currently across the 
region will trend to widespread IFR due to low ceilings by 
08-09Z as a strong subsidence inversion sets up. This inversion 
looks to hold strong through day with little improvement 
in flight category expected until perhaps after the noon hour 
where ceilings might rise to MVFR. Visibility will be a 
challenge to forecast overnight as several locations seeing some
MVFR BR right now, and expect through the night more locations 
will see the same, likely bouncing from VFR to MVFR at times. 
After sunrise, expect vsby to increase to VFR for all sites. 
Winds will mainly be NNE less than 8kts, except for a brief 
period of gusts to 20kts at KMSS through 08Z. 

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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