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SKIVT-L  June 2019, Week 2

SKIVT-L June 2019, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 9 Jun 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (235 lines)

Expires:201906092000;;805060
FPUS51 KBTV 091028
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019


VTZ006-092000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
623 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

.TODAY...Sunny, warmer with highs in the lower 80s. Light and
variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. West
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 50. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 

$$


Expires:201906091100;;805187
ASUS41 KBTV 091030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 09 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      51  42  71 CALM      30.31R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      42  40  92 CALM      30.38R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      40  39  97 CALM      30.35R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     42  41  96 MISG      30.35R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      41  38  89 CALM      30.37R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      45  41  85 CALM      30.32R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      50  39  66 SE13      30.33R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      44  42  93 CALM      30.36R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      50  45  83 SE5       30.30R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      44  41  91 S6        30.35R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      45  42  89 CALM      30.31R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     39 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     41 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  45  67 SE8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  48  76 S8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  48  82 S8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;797904
FXUS61 KBTV 090752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northeast will provide another sunny and warm 
day to the North Country today and through most of Monday before a 
cold front swings through the region with widespread rain showers 
Monday evening through mid-day Tuesday. High pressure returns for 
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then unsettled weather 
develops again for the end of the week and potentially into the 
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 326 AM EDT Sunday...If you liked yesterday, you'll love today
as surface high pressure now centered off the New England coast
combined with a building upper ridge over the Northeast will provide
another spectacular day across the North Country. A few mid clouds
drifting over the ridge across northern Vermont this morning will
give way to full sunshine this afternoon and a developing southerly
return flow will usher in a well above normal airmass with 925mb
temps near +20c this afternoon supporting widespread highs in the
low/mid 80s. Dewpoints creep up just slightly from yesterdays very
low values, with afternoon humidity quite comfortable in the 20-30%
range.

Dry conditions persist tonight as the ridge drifts eastward off the
New England coast with clear skies in the evening giving way to some
increasing high clouds through the night. This should help limit
temps from falling as much as the previous few nights, but will
still be very comfortable ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. An
upper trough digging into the Great Lakes and associated cold front
will approach late in the day Monday with showers developing across
northern New York around the evening rush hour. High temps will once
again reach into the 80s for most areas, except across the
Adirondacks and southern St. Lawrence Valley where precipitation
arrives first. More on this system below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Sunday...Widespread rainfall expected Monday
Night into Tuesday morning with qpf in the 0.50 to 1.0 range,
with some localized higher amounts possible. Overall guidance in
good agreement with mid/upper level trof swinging across the
central Great Lakes and advecting an axis of deeper moisture
into our cwa. Models continue to support pw values in the 1.75
to 2.0 range with warm cloud layer values up to 12,000 feet and
strong low level moisture advection on se 850mb jet of 40 to 50
knots. All these parameters support warm rainfall processes on
Monday Night into Tuesday, ahead of sharp sfc boundary. Expect
rain with pockets of moderate to locally heavy rainfall for a 3
to 6 hour window during this time period. The fast progressive
mid/upper level flow, combined with sharp/well defined back edge
will result in precip quickly ending on Tuesday morning btwn
12z-18z. Rainfall generally in the 0.50 to 1.0 range, but some
trrn influenced on se low level flow will result in localized
amounts up to 1.5 or so. Not anticipating any hydro related
issues, given recent 3 to 4 day dry spell. Have removed mention
of thunder in most of the area, as soundings show moist
adiabatic profiles and cape <100 j/kg, while Showalter values 
only approach 0. These lack of instability will limit higher 
rainfall rates. Temps mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday 
Night and warm only in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday with 
rain ending from west to east during the morning hours. 


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Sunday...1025mb sfc high pres builds across the
cwa on Tuesday Night into Weds with clearing skies and lighter
winds in the bl. Thinking with the expected rainfall on Monday
Night/Tues and temps reaching cross over values, areas of fog
will be possible by Weds morning. Still some questions on cloud
cover and amount of bl mixing, as sfc high pres is just south of
our cwa and we remain in a little west/northwest gradient
overnight. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures are
anticipated on Weds, with highs generally in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. 

Another period of unsettled weather is expected for late week
into next weekend, as deep full latitude trof impacts the
eastern Conus. The general idea of showery wx with below normal
high temps and above normal lows looks reasonable given the
large scale synoptic setup. Still some uncertainty with
evolution of pops/qpf on Thurs/Friday time frame, as deeper
tropical moisture may slide to our southeast, while stronger
dynamics and better lift with mid/upper level trof may impact
areas to our north and west, leaving our cwa in btwn the two
areas of heaviest rainfall. Still chc to likely pops are
expected with development of trof and embedded short wave
energy, but with an unphased system the higher pws shift off 
the east coast. On Friday, have noted a weak pocket of 
instability develops before upper level trof moves directly 
overhead and associated sfc cold front swings thru. So a rumble 
of thunder is possible, but too much uncertainty on degree of 
instability will not mention in fcst at this time. Temps with 
clouds/showery wx will remain mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs and lows upper 40s to mid 50s during the extended 
period. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR will persist through the period with 
FEW-SCT120 skimming along the international border for a few 
hours overnight before trending back to SKC after 12Z. Winds 
light and variable except SE around 8kts at KRUT overnight trend
SSW 5-10kts at all terminals after 14-15Z.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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