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SKIVT-L  June 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 17 Jun 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (227 lines)

Expires:201906172000;;200840
FPUS51 KBTV 170732
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019


VTZ006-172000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
328 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable
winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows
in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable
winds.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and
variable winds.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and
variable winds.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.

$$


Expires:201906171100;;208562
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 52 48 86 CALM 29.97R
MONTPELIER FOG 45 45 100 CALM 29.99S VSB<1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 46 45 96 N5 29.97R VSB 1/2
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 48 48 100 MISG 29.94R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 48 47 96 CALM 29.97R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 49 49 99 CALM 29.97R
RUTLAND* FOG 53 53 100 CALM 29.96S VSB<1/4
SPRINGFIELD FOG 53 52 96 CALM 29.95S VSB 1
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 54 53 95 CALM 29.97R
NEWPORT* FAIR 47 47 100 CALM 29.98R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 60 56 86 CALM 29.95R
ISLAND POND* N/A 43 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 45 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 46 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 50 N/A N/A NW24 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 59 52 77 NW1 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 50 72 NW9 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 59 50 72 NW1 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;201810
FXUS61 KBTV 170758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure across the northern Great Lakes will bring
a pleasant start to the work week with temperatures warming into
the 70s to near 80 today and Tuesday, along with modest humidity
levels and light winds. A slight chance of daytime showers
exists on Wednesday, followed by the potential for a more widespread
rainfall on Thursday. Drier weather returns for Friday and next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 124 AM EDT Monday...Surface cold front has pushed offshore
into the Gulf of Maine and extends swwd across sern MA and into
the NYC metro area at 05Z. Light north winds prevail across the
North Country and skies have largely cleared in the wake of the
front. With 2-m dewpoints holding in the upper 40s to lower
50s, dewpoint depressions are small, and anticipate some pre-
dawn fog development in the favored valleys of central/ern VT,
and also across nrn NY. Temperatures at daybreak across Vermont
and northern New York will generally range from the mid 40s to
lower 50s...warmest across the Champlain Valley and the valleys
of Rutland/Windsor counties.

The near-term period features tranquil weather overall, with
modest 1017mb sfc anticyclone over the northern Great Lakes the
controlling weather feature as it shifts slowly ewd. Winds are
quite weak below 5kft over the next 24-36 hrs, and will see N-NW
winds at just 4-7 mph today, and generally light and variable
tonight into Tuesday. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures
will moderate with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s along
with low humidity. Lows tonight will mainly range from the upper
40s to lower 50s, except a few lower 40s across the northern
Adirondacks and Vermont's Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures
moderate a bit further into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Tuesday. With a shortwave trough translating ewd along the
remnant frontal zone across srn New England, it appears we'll
have a bit more cloudiness on Tuesday, with partly sunny
conditions across s-central VT. May also see an isold shower or
two across s-central VT or the higher terrain of Essex County NY
during Tuesday afternoon. There is some modest instability
present (100-200 J/kg) per 00Z NAM forecast soundings, but
shallow instability layer with equilibrium level temps warmer
than -10C suggest the potential for any lightning is quite low.
Went with 20-30% PoPs in these areas later Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise PoPs NIL thru the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 358 AM EDT Monday...Any lingering showers over southern
areas should quickly come to an end Tuesday evening no
precipitation expected for the remainder of the night. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 50s to around 60.

Wednesday morning will be dry...but the threat of convection
will increase in the afternoon. High temperatures will climb
into the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points expected to be
in the 50s. CAPE values as high as 500 J/kg should result and
this will be sufficient instability to enhance the potential for
showers. Composite analysis has a weak surface boundary up near
the Canadian border...but no real forcing along it. Best forcing
mechanism will be the terrain. This combined with the
instability should be enough for a slight chance or chance of
showers in the afternoon. Deep layer shear is weak and thus the
convection will be pulse in nature. Given that the instability
and forcing are not real strong either...will keep precipitation
as showers for now and not mention any thunder at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 358 AM EDT Monday...As we lose the instability Wednesday
evening threat of showers will also decrease. Developing
southwest flow aloft will keep warmer overnight temperatures
across the area with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Upper
trough moving out of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
will result in increasing chances for showers on
Thursday...especially during the afternoon and night. Higher
precipitable water values will advance into the region and could
see some higher precipitation amounts with this system.
Eventually the trough exits the region to the east on Friday and
northwest flow aloft develops over the region. Looking at
cooler and drier weather for Friday and Saturday...but as upper
ridge axis moves toward the region on Sunday we will see warmer
low level temperatures and Sunday will have high temperatures at
or slightly above seasonal normals with dry weather continuing.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Early morning fog with periods of LIFR the
main aviation weather concern at MPV/RUT/SLK/MSS through 11-12Z
this morning. Not anticipating any fog at PBG/BTV. Otherwise,
VFR areawide with just scattered high cloudiness expected. Winds
generally light N-NW around 5 kts as sfc high pressure builds
ewd from the Great Lakes region. Will see local lake breeze
development at PBG later this morning into the afternoon hours
with localized winds NE-E during the mid-day hours. Light and
variable winds and mostly clear skies again tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Banacos

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