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SKIVT-L  June 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 19 Jun 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (257 lines)

Expires:201906192000;;726924
FPUS51 KBTV 191048
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019


VTZ006-192000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
645 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Patchy dense fog this morning. A chance of showers. A slight chance
of thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance
of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms, mainly until
midnight. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. A slight chance of
thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in
the afternoon. Highs around 70. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper
70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201906191100;;726467
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    62  57  83 E3        29.83F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      55  53  93 CALM      29.87F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  52  93 MISG      29.87R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      55  53  92 CALM      29.90F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    65  61  86 S5        29.86S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      57  56  96 S5        29.88R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    55  55 100 CALM      29.89S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      62  57  82 SE5       29.83S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      57  55  93 CALM      29.87F                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      63  60  90 CALM      29.87S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     52 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W12         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  61  88 SE7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  63  94 S13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A    N/A N/A N/A S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;722174
FXUS61 KBTV 190839
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
439 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and tranquil weather comes to an end this morning. Surface 
trough crosses the region this afternoon and will give way to 
scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms as weak low 
pressure passes south of the region. A more widespread moderate 
to locally heavy rainfall is expected Thursday afternoon and 
night before drier weather returns for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday...Another weak low pressure system
will pass to our south today, tracking from western New York
towards the west coast of New England. A second weak low
pressure system passes from near the Ontario-Quebec border
towards Montreal. As these 2 lows pass on either side of our
region, a surface trough moves across our forecast area. Will
have some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon. Best chance seems to be from the Adirondacks
eastward. After 18z CAPE will creep above 1000 J/kg in the
Champlain valley. At this point looks like just general thunder.
Any convection will wane after sunset with loss of daytime
heating. Tonight should be quiet once again, areas that have
showers today could see some fog development overnight with very
light flow regime in place. Thursday looks slightly more
interesting than today. Both aforementioned lows will finally
continue to push eastward on Thursday and a surface cold front
will cross our forecast area. Some stronger shortwave energy
(currently over the plains) will traverse the area as well.
Shower and thunderstorm activity should be a bit more widespread
Thursday afternoon, but still not expecting any severe storms
with instability parameters just showing some minor CAPE again.
Thursday will also be cooler than Wednesday, so perhaps not a
lot of surface instability with temperatures topping out in the
70s. About a tenth of an inch to a half an inch of rainfall is
expected during the daytime hours on Thursday, with additional
precipitation into the overnight Thursday night. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Wednesday...Shortwave trough moves across the area
Thursday night and we will have a fairly large precipitation shield
over the area at the start of the period. There will be a northwest
to southeast gradient to the precipitation with lowest chances
northwest and highest chances southeast. Precipitable water values
will still be over 1.5 inches so a burst of heavier precipitation
will be possible for the first half of Thursday night. Precipitation
should quickly come to an end Friday morning and north to northwest
flow aloft becomes established over the area. Cold air advection
will lead to high temperature on Friday in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Wednesday...North to northwest flow aloft persists
over the area Friday night through Saturday night. Other than a few
showers possible over the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont on
Saturday...much of the period will be dry with highs on Saturday in
the upper 60s to mid 70s...which is a few degrees below normal.
Upper ridge axis approaches from the west on Sunday and we will
begin to have warmer 925 and 850 millibar temperatures moving into
the region. With values in the +18C to +20C range at 925 millibars
on Sunday...can see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and maybe
some of the larger valleys approaching 85. There will be a good deal
of sunshine and the air mass is rather dry based on forecast
soundings. These elements will help promote the potential for warmer
temperatures. Upper ridge axis flattens a bit as it moves into the
region on Monday. Even warmer low level temperatures will advect
into the region...but clouds and increasing moisture in the low
levels will temper the ability to be even warmer than Sunday. Thus
still looking at highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and with the
higher dew points enough instability will develop to enhance the
potential for some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Forcing is
weak as upper trough and its associated cold front remain well
upstream of the area. The most interesting day of the extended
period looks like it might be Tuesday. Composite analysis shows
meteorological parameters becoming more favorable for organized
convection. The upper trough that was upstream of our area on Monday
now moves eastward out of the Great Lakes. Height falls associated
with the trough are noticeable and at the same time we are seeing
deep layer shear increasing over the area with 30 to 50 knots of
wind noted at 850...700...and 500 millibars. Cold front and pre-
frontal trough move into northern New York Tuesday afternoon and
interact with increasing instability over the area. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew points in the 60s to help create
the increasing instability. With all of these parameters coming
together over the area Tuesday afternoon the potential for organized
convection will exist. Granted it is quite a ways away...but
definitely something to keep an eye on in the extended forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail at most 
sites through the period. Exception will be possible IFR at MPV
and SLK due to patchy fog 07z-12z Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly 
clear skies expected tonight with perhaps a few mid clouds from
time to time. Building cumulus are expected beyond 14Z 
Wednesday with increasing chances for showers towards 18Z. Winds
will be light and variable.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...This morning's 24-hr QPF output from
global models largely maintain a similar picture showing a 
swath of moderate to locally heavy rainfall along a developing 
warm front Thursday evening into the overnight hours. The GFS, 
NAM and Canadian all show this zone setting up across our far 
southern counties into portions of central and southern New 
England while the Euro suggests an axis slightly further north 
into the Dacks/central VT. Blended QPF progs minimizing Euro 
input suggest 12-16 hour rainfall totals will average in the 
1.25 to 1.75 inch range across Rutland and Windsor Counties 
during the period with locally higher amounts. The threat of 
widespread flooding appears low at this time given this area 
should largely lie on the cooler side of the boundary with a 
general lack of deeper convective activity and excessive 
rainfall rates. However both the GEFS and NAEFS ensemble river 
flow forecasts show several rivers approaching action stage on 
Friday so we'll continue to monitor the situation closely over 
the next 48 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Neiles
HYDROLOGY...JMG

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