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SKIVT-L  June 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 20 Jun 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (262 lines)

Expires:201906202000;;775281
FPUS51 KBTV 200829
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
425 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019


VTZ006-202000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
425 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Showers likely this morning,
then showers this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance
of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers, mainly until midnight. Locally heavy rainfall
possible until midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and variable
winds, becoming north around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Highs in the upper 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201906201100;;780037
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    69  64  84 SW3       29.67R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    65  63  93 S7        29.75R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       60  60 100 S3        29.70S VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  64  97 MISG      29.69S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    64  62  96 SE3       29.74S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    66  64  93 SW3       29.67F                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    65  63  93 SE9       29.70S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    66  63  90 CALM      29.72S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      67  65  96 CALM      29.67R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    62  62 100 CALM      29.72S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    69  63  81 SE3       29.69S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     64 N/A N/A NE2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A W9          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  64  94 SW3         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  64 100 S10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  64  94 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;776033
FXUS61 KBTV 200845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
445 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for moderate to heavy rainfall will exist this
afternoon and tonight over a good part of the North Country.
Localized flooding is possible. Cooler and drier weather is
expected for Friday and Saturday. A warming trend begins on
Sunday and continues into early next week. Dry weather will
continue on Sunday...then the chances for showers and some
thunderstorms will increase early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...Potential for moderate to heavy 
rainfall exists this afternoon and tonight across much of the 
North Country...generally from the northern Adirondacks eastward
across the Champlain Valley and remainder of Vermont. 
However...overall impacts may be limited to minor flooding of 
smaller rivers and streams, ponding of water on roadways, and 
minor field flooding. The bottom line is most of the area should
receive one to two inches of rain with amounts closer to three 
quarters of an inch out across the Saint Lawrence Valley. This 
covers the today through Friday morning period with the best 
potential for the heavier rain coming this afternoon and 
tonight. There has been a bit of a northward shift of where 
heavy rainfall might occur. Main upper trough will remain west 
of the area today but a lead shortwave trough coming out of the 
Ohio Valley will work its way up across our area today. This 
will help to generate a low pressure system over the southern 
Adirondacks with a frontal boundary extending northeast across 
Essex County New York...Addison County Vermont...and up into 
Essex County Vermont. This boundary will become the focus for 
more concentrated precipitation this afternoon and evening... 
especially as higher precipitable water values spread northward 
today. We should see values around 1.75 inches which will help 
enhance the potential for heavier precipitation. Composite 
analysis also suggests that if any instability were to develop 
it will be down across portions of Rutland and Windsor 
counties... and especially points south. Have thus included the 
mention of thunder in these areas for this afternoon and 
evening. With all the cloud cover and deeper moisture moving 
into the region high temperatures today will generally be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Lead shortwave moves out of the area tonight and with upper
trough axis progressing across the region later tonight...we
should begin to see a well defined back edge to the
precipitation develop later tonight across the Saint Lawrence
Valley. This back edge will progress quickly eastward Friday
morning and most of the precipitation will be east of the area
by midday on Friday as north to northwest flow aloft becomes
established. There could be some lingering showers in the
mountains Friday afternoon with highs generally in the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...We are in the deep cyclonic N to NW
flow behind the upper low in the Canadian maritimes Friday 
night with cold air advection through the column. It appears 
there may be a weak short wave in the flow as well. This 
combined with a little low level moisture and upslope flow is 
enough to keep a slight chance of a mainly mountain shower or 
sprinkle going into the overnight hours. Expect low temps to be 
in the mid 40s to mid 50s under partly cloud skies.

Saturday looks to be a partly sunny day across the North Country 
with some isolated showers possible mainly across northeast VT. One 
last short wave with a cold pocket moves through the region and when 
combine with daytime heating will generate some weak instability and 
resulting chance of showers. 850 temps get up to about 9-10C so high 
temps will range through the 70s.  Expecting a bit of a NW breeze of 
15 to 25 mph as well.

Saturday night should be quite similar to Friday night with clear 
skies and light northwest flow and low temps in the mid 40s to 
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...The NW flow aloft continues on
Sunday with the upper level ridge still to the west but with 
rising heights and dry column it should be a nice day across the
North Country. Temps should warm into the upper 70s to low 80s 
as 850 temps rise to 11-12C and push temps to around 80. It 
looks like the ridge aloft will move remain off to our west for 
much of Monday into Monday night. The ridge finally breaks down 
with an approaching trof on Tuesday. This is a bit slower than 
previous forecasts so it may be warmer and drier for Monday. If 
we stay sunny current forecast of lower 80s could turn into mid 
80s but we'll see. Models start diverging on the solutions for 
Tue-Thu with the approach of another upper trof with the EC/CMC 
more or less on the same page with a deeper slower closed system
and the GFS less amplified and a bit faster. For now keeping 
chances of showers and slight chance of thunder through the 
period until we get closer. It appears that we'll continue to 
see seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s 
and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through
12z...but KSLK will have VLIFR conditions due to low ceilings
and fog. Expecting widespread precipitation to move from
southwest to northeast across the region which will produce
ceilings in the 500-1500 foot range from about 18z through the
remainder of the period. Visibilities will lower into the 3 to 5
mile range during this same time period. Winds will generally be
10 knots or less through the period.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...Still looking at a general 
widespread one to two inch rain event. Axis of highest amounts 
was initially over southern Vermont...but as low pressure and 
surface boundary set up across portions of the northern 
Adirondacks in New York and extended into Vermont from Addison 
County northeast up into Essex County Vermont. Heavier rain may 
be concentrated across this area this afternoon and evening 
before boundary shifts east. Southern areas will have the best 
potential to see some thunderstorms and this could enhance 
rainfall totals across this area as well. Overall mainstem 
rivers are not expected to reach flood stage...but the East 
Branch of the Ausable and Otter Creek might be two to watch. 
Otherwise impacts related to the one to two inch rainfall 
include sharp rises on smaller rivers and streams which could 
lead to localized flooding...minor field flooding...and ponding 
of water on roadways.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Evenson
HYDROLOGY...Evenson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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