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SKIVT-L  June 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 15 Jun 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (227 lines)

Expires:201906152000;;103523
FPUS51 KBTV 151032
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019


VTZ006-152000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
629 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 70s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.TONIGHT...Showers. Lows in the mid 50s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. Light and variable winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and
variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable
winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201906151100;;103432
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    60  48  64 S10G20    29.97S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    52  48  86 CALM      30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    49  47  93 CALM      30.00S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     50  49  96 MISG      30.00R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    49  48  97 SE6       30.04R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    57  48  72 S6        30.01F                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    51  47  86 SE10      30.05R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      47  45  93 CALM      30.06R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    60  51  71 S7        29.95S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    52  50  94 S5        30.00S                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    49  46  90 CALM      30.06S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A S29         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  52  82 S10G18      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  52  82 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  50  72 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;095401
FXUS61 KBTV 150718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy south to southwesterly winds will develop today south of
a cold front approaching from southwestern Quebec and
southeastern Ontario. Much of the day will be dry with
temperatures climbing into the 70s, but will begin to see some 
showers develop near the cold front this afternoon across 
northern New York, and during the evening hours across northern 
Vermont. Showers will be widespread through midnight or so, with
rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter inch generally
expected. For Sunday, the cold front will settle just to our 
south, with a chance of showers remaining across central and south-
central Vermont. Partly sunny and generally dry conditions are 
expected further north. Dry and seasonable conditions are
expected Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 129 AM EDT Saturday...May see a few light rain showers
early this morning associated with approaching mid-level
shortwave trough and jet exit region. Appears potl for light 
shower activity will generally exit east of VT by 12Z, and 
included just a 20 PoP or so for the pre-dawn hours based on 
mosaic composite reflectivity trends and upstream observations. 
Will see partly sunny conditions for the balance of the daylight
hours, along with moderately strong S-SW gradient flow. Should
become breezy for a time late this morning through early this
afternoon with steep low-level lapse rates, especially from the
Champlain Valley wwd across nrn NY. Looking at sustained winds 
15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph. Likewise, partial sun will
result in warmer temperatures than yesterday, with highs mainly
into the low-mid 70s. 

Limited low-level convergence south of approaching surface cold
front will keep shower chances low until 21Z or so. At that
time, should see developing showers across nrn NY, with activity
moving ewd into wrn/nrn VT between 00-03Z. Indicated the highest
PoPs areawide around 03Z tonight (around 80%), with most of the
shower activity diminishing after 06Z. Rainfall amounts 
generally 0.10-0.25" associated with the frontal passage 
overnight. Winds will also diminish after sunset with weakening 
gradient flow and more stable PBL conditions as shower activity 
develops. Overnight lows mainly 55-60F with mostly cloudy 
conditions. 

On Sunday, surface cold front settles to our south and becomes 
quasi-stationary across far srn VT/MA. Will see lingering 
chances for showers across south-central VT, and greater 
cloudiness across the far srn portion of our forecast area. 
North of MPV, appears shower chances are quite low (20 PoP) and 
should see partly sunny conditions for much of nrn VT and nrn 
NY. High temperatures on Sunday will range from 70-74F across 
nrn areas, with a few upper 60s across south-central VT with 
sunshine a bit more limited near the frontal zone. Winds will 
also be lighter on Sunday, mainly NW at 4-8 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...Aforementioned frontal boundary will
track southeastward across the North Country Saturday night with
rain showers most prominent across northern New York and
central/northern Vermont through midnight before the front begins to
wash out and showers become more scattered across southern Vermont
early Sunday morning. On Sunday the boundary stalls across southern
Vermont and through southeastern New England with the best chance
for scattered showers mainly south of the forecast area. Clouds will
persist through most of the day with perhaps some breaks of sun
across northern areas during the afternoon. Despite the cloud cover
temps will rise to near normal values with highs ranging through the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...Lots of uncertainty exists in the pattern
for next week as the forecast area will be on the northern periphery
of a frontal zone draped across the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England states while several weak pieces of shortwave energy will
move through the area on a fast zonal flow aloft. Leaning on a
GFS/CMC blend thinking we'll be mainly on the dry side of the
boundary with the best chance for showers being Monday night and
Tuesday when the strongest shortwave trough looks to swing through.
Otherwise, temps look very seasonal with highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s under partly cloudy skies each day.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR areawide through 21Z today with
variable mid-level clouds expected (Ceilings mainly above 6kft).
Main issue for the daylight hrs will be developing gusty S-SW 
winds, highest between 14-21Z. Will see sustained winds 
increasing to 12-17kt with gusts 22-30kt possible, likely 
highest at BTV and MSS with valley channeling. Winds gradually 
diminishing toward early evening with a cold front approaching 
from sern Ontario. Will see scattered rain showers near the
front...developing across nrn NY between 21-00Z, and across VT 
00-04Z. During this time frame, will see ceilings drop into the
MVFR range for several hours, with HIR TRRN OBSCD. May see some
areas of 3-5SM vsby as well with -SHRA and areas of BR during 
Saturday night. 

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA mainly
MPV and RUT.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. 
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. 
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. 
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. 
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. 
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos

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