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SKIVT-L  June 2019, Week 5

SKIVT-L June 2019, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 29 Jun 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (255 lines)

Expires:201906292000;;250816
FPUS51 KBTV 290704
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019


VTZ006-292000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
302 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely this morning, then a chance
of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west with gusts up to 25 mph
this afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
until midnight, then showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the upper 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 50s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Warmer with highs in the upper 70s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower
80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201906291100;;259655
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  65  62  90 SE6       30.00F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  62  61  96 S3        30.08F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      63  60  90 N3        30.03F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  64 100 MISG      30.01F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    63  59  88 W5        30.05F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    65  61  88 E3        30.02F                  
RUTLAND*       HVY RAIN  65  64  97 VRB3      30.06S FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  65  64  97 CALM      30.05S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    68  64  85 S6        29.99F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    64  58  83 SW7       30.03F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  65  63  93 S5        30.04F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     64 N/A N/A W5          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     61 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A SW20        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  63  88 SE6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  63  88 SE9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  61  77 N1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;252303
FXUS61 KBTV 290740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are on tap for the North Country today as 
a stalled frontal boundary begins to slide eastward as a cold front. 
Temperatures today will once again climb to near 80 degrees ahead of 
the cold front. A brief break in rain may be seen late this 
afternoon into the evening. A strong upper level low will take aim 
at the region this evening through Sunday which will bring more 
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon. Drier weather 
finally returns on Monday with deep layer ridging building across 
the region. Tuesday and Wednesday are now also trending drier but 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as 
temperatures warm well into the 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...Shower activity has begun to re-develop
across central and northern New York this morning along a quasi-
stationary front. A weak and low amplitude shortwave embedded within
the upper level flow has also assisted in the increase of shower
activity across the region. The overall thought is that this
activity will continue through the next several hours with the
potential for more development further north toward the
international border. The aforementioned front will begin to work
its way eastward as a cold front this afternoon and be the focus for
the development of additional showers and thunderstorms. There will
be some destabilization of the boundary layer ahead of the front
with surface based CAPE values increasing toward 1000 J/kg. However,
the ongoing shower activity today will be a major limiting factor as
cloud cover will cause temperatures to struggle to warm into the mid
to upper 70s. If the shower activity depicted on both the NAM and
GFS pan out, overall thunder potential will be limited to mainly
southern portions of the state.

A brief break in rainfall may be seen late this afternoon between
the departing front and an approaching closed upper level low.
Pretty impressive height falls at 500 mb, especially for this time
of the year, will be observed as the upper level low tracks directly
across our forecast area overnight into Sunday. This strong dynamics
associated with the height falls will be more than enough to re-
invigorate showers and thunderstorms across the region. Due to the
timing of the system being during the overnight hours, instability
will be rather meager with maybe 300 to 500 J/kg of present. This
should limit the strength of the thunderstorms as updrafts will
struggle to support long-lived storms. However, with the position of
the upper level low, we could see rain showers pivot around the
feature which could lead to some decent rainfall amounts across some
locations where training rain showers occur.

These showers will continue into Sunday but the potential for
thunder will continue to wane as temperatures at the surface on
Sunday struggle to warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. However, very
cold temperatures at 850 mb (5-7 degrees C) will support convective
showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder. As the upper level low
continues to track southeast on Sunday, we will see rain chances
finally begin to taper off from northwest to southeast. Overall,
total rainfall from this morning through Sunday afternoon will range
from around a half of an inch to three quarters of an inch. There
could be some locally higher amounts closer to 1.25 inches in areas
that see thunderstorm activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...Precipitation will quickly depart
the North Country Sunday night into early Monday morning as the
upper-level trough axis moves east of the area and H5 heights
begin to build. Will need to watch for the potential for some
fog development in climatologically favored areas Sunday night
after the recent rainfall, particularly in northern NY where
skies will trend clearer the earliest. In terms of temperatures,
Sunday night will be the coolest night in the near future with
lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Monday continues to
look like a fantastic summer day with plenty of sunshine and
near to slightly above seasonal temperatures. Shortwave ridging
building in will suppress the development of any precipitation
throughout the day. 925 mb temps between 17 and 19C within a
well-mixed boundary layer will support surface temperatures in
the low 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...A cold front will move through
Monday night accompanied by a quick line of showers. Behind the
front, deep northwesterly flow will exist over the area Tuesday
through Wednesday. Generally expecting dry weather during this
time frame, although will have to watch closely for the
development of any shortwaves within the fast flow aloft, which
could bring some showers. At this point however, not seeing any
such features so have kept PoPs generally under 30 percent.
Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, but
temperatures will quickly warm to well above normal starting
Wednesday. 

The latter half of the week will feature large-scale ridging 
building over much of the central and eastern CONUS, which will 
bring above normal temperatures to much of the nation. Highs in 
the North Country will be in the 80s for this time frame, with 
potential for some valley locations to touch 90. In addition to 
the warmer temperatures, southwest low and mid-level flow will 
direct Gulf moisture through the Ohio River Valley and up into 
New England. The moisture influx combined with the high 
temperatures will create an environment ripe for thunderstorms, 
particularly Thursday and Friday afternoons/evenings. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across the North
Country at the moment but expecting some 2500 ft ceilings to
develop across northern New York terminals between 08Z and 10Z
based on upstream observations. Shower activity is beginning to
re-develop which looks to bring some scattered to numerous
showers to the region between 09Z and 15Z but drier air will
limit the areal coverage so visibilities and ceilings shouldn't
drop too much in the shower activity. With warmer temperatures
once again expected today, some gusty southerly winds could
develop. These gusty winds will be short lived (between 18Z and
23Z) as mixing will shut off quickly around sunset. The next
round of showers and thunderstorms will start moving toward KMSS
by 06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Clay

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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