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SKIVT-L  June 2019, Week 5

SKIVT-L June 2019, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 30 Jun 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (257 lines)

Expires:201906302000;;303286
FPUS51 KBTV 300706
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019


VTZ006-302000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.TODAY...Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
mid 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms until midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in
the mid 50s. North winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming
light and variable. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Warmer with highs in the upper 70s. Light
and variable winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph in the
afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper
70s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201906301100;;312397
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    62  60  93 CALM      29.77F FOG              
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    58  58 100 CALM      29.82S FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    60  58  92 CALM      29.79S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     59  59 100 MISG      29.76S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      57  56  97 CALM      29.80R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG       60  60  99 CALM      29.78F VSB 1/2          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    60  60 100 CALM      29.79F FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       60  60 100 CALM      29.78R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    62  61  96 CALM      29.77F FOG              
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    58  58 100 CALM      29.79R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      58  56  93 CALM      29.79S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     59 N/A N/A S1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W24         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  59  88 W1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  61  88 W6          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  63  94 E3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;304627
FXUS61 KBTV 300733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of showers and thunderstorms will be seen today
across the North Country. Temperatures today will be significantly
cooler than the past several days with highs mainly in the mid
to upper 60s. The shower and thunderstorm activity will taper
off from northwest to southeast this afternoon with partly to
mostly clear conditions developing by Monday morning. However,
it's looking increasingly likely for some patchy dense fog
across much of the region tonight given all the recent rainfall.
Monday will usher in the return of drier and warmer weather as
temperatures climb back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. This
period of drier weather will continue through Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms then look possible late weak heading into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 314 AM EDT Sunday...We are patiently awaiting the arrival of
the upper level low to the North Country this morning. Water vapor
imagery from early morning satellite shows an abundance of dry air
currently overhead with moisture associated with the very dynamic
upper level low north of the international border. Looking at the
plethora of model data available, none of them are encapsulating the
magnitude of the dry air over the region. This will likely impact
the timing of shower and thunderstorm activity this morning as both
the NAM and GFS were painting strong showers already beginning to
enter the St. Lawrence Valley. Based on the current scope of
everything, it seems the showers really won't materialize until
closer to 8 AM instead of 5 AM. However, with the dry air in place
aiding in the clearing of skies a bit, fog has begun to form across
much of the region given the light winds, high dewpoints and recent
rainfall. Once we start to get into the shower activity and diurnal
heating come early morning hours, the fog should quickly lift across
the region.

The forecast from this morning into this afternoon still looks to be
quite tricky. The dynamics associated with the strong upper level
low will be causing significant height falls across the region.
Instability will try to rebound this afternoon but it's looking
unlikely that several, if any, locations can even make it into the
70's today. The impressive thing to note: even with the cooler
temperatures at the surface, temperatures aloft are even colder
which actually prevents us from having any CIN by this afternoon
while CAPE values increase to upwards to 500 J/kg. This really isn't
the typical summer time thermal profile for the North Country when
temps can't even make it to 70 degrees but it does support the
development of some thunderstorms throughout the day. Freezing
levels still remain around 8500 ft which is low but not crazy low
but given the unstable environment overhead, it wouldn't be
surprising to see some small hail or graupel with some of the
stronger thunderstorms. Gusty winds look less likely than yesterday
just due to the amount of moisture expected between 15,000 ft.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off from northwest to
southeast late this afternoon into the evening hours as the upper
level low tracks quickly to the southeast. One question at this time
is to how quickly the low-level and mid-level moisture exits the
region behind the departing upper level low. This will strongly
impact the fog potential across the North Country tonight. If
moisture exits quickly, widespread fog looks likely while if the
moisture is slower to exit, fog will likely be limited to the more
favorable locations withing the Adirondack and Green Mountains.

Monday looks to be the perfect summer day across the North Country
with temperatures rebounding nicely into mid 70s to lower 80s. Deep
layer ridging will be building in throughout the day which should
usher in a plethora of dry air and bring mostly sunny skies to the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Sunday...A cold front will move through Monday 
night through early Tuesday morning, resulting in a quick round
of overnight scattered showers. Convergence along the boundary 
will be weak as the front washes out after crossing the 
Canadian Border into the North Country. Upper-level lift is also
lacking as the front moves through, with little in the way of 
height falls expected. Overall will be quite an uneventful 
frontal passage, and have generally lowered PoPs as the boundary
moves through with models indicating weaker lift than initially
expected. Some higher terrain areas will have the best chance 
for some light showers overnight, but thinking much of the area 
will be limited to a few sprinkles or even stay dry.

Tuesday will be mainly dry as broad ridging begins to build in.
Can't rule out stray pop up afternoon shower, but overall should
be a quiet weather day. Temperatures will begin a warming trend
Tuesday under the building ridge, with high temperatures
expected to reach the low to mid 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Sunday...Looking towards the middle and end of
the week, it's safe to say the dog days of summer will have 
arrived. A strong upper-level ridge will build over the central 
and eastern United States, and surface high pressure will be 
anchored over the southeastern portion of the country. This 
pattern will direct warm, moist Gulf of Mexico sourced air 
through the Ohio River Valley and northeastward into New 
England. 850 mb temperatures will peak in the 16-18C range 
Thursday, which will be supportive of temperatures near 90 
degrees towards the end of the work week. This pattern will also
favor moisture influx into the North Country, priming the 
atmosphere for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday still looks 
mainly dry as the better influx of moisture won't start until 
Wednesday night/Thursday. But by Thursday and Friday 
afternoons, precipitation chances significantly increase amid 
the very moist, unstable environment. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...A break in shower and thunderstorm activity
will be observed through 09Z/10Z with mainly just mid to high
clouds over the area. With the recent rainfall, it wouldn't be
surprising to see a few areas fog in. As a matter of fact, KSLK
has been bounding back and forth with a scattered 300 and broken
300 ft deck. It's probably just a matter of time until they stay
down at IFR ceilings and possibly IFR visibilities. Elsewhere,
once moisture finally works back into the region toward sunrise,
we will see ceilings drop to 1500 to 2500 ft across all terminals.
The chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will exist again
on Sunday with the highest likelihood of thunderstorm actually 
during the morning hours. Sunday night looks to be foggy with
KSLK and KMPV likely tanking to IFR visibilities and ceilings by
this time tomorrow night as skies clear and winds become light
and variable. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Clay

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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