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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 3 Jul 2019 06:50:05 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201907032000;;044380
FPUS51 KBTV 030735
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019


VTZ006-032000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
333 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable winds,
becoming northwest around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows around 60. Light and variable winds. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Light and
variable winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. 

$$


Expires:201907031100;;052026
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      64  60  87 CALM      29.83R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      58  57  97 CALM      29.90R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      57  54  89 CALM      29.86R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     57  57 100 MISG      29.83R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      57  55  95 CALM      29.87R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      61  60  97 CALM      29.85R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      61  60  97 SE8       29.86R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       60  59  96 CALM      29.85R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      64  63  95 CALM      29.82S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      57  57  98 CALM      29.85R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      60  59  96 CALM      29.86R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     55 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A W17         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  64  83 SE5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     68  64  88 SE9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  66  94 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;044364
FXUS61 KBTV 030734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
334 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue 
to build across the North Country today. This will result in mainly 
dry conditions with temperatures warming into the mid and upper 80s. 
An isolated shower or rumble of thunder is possible across the 
eastern Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley this afternoon, but 
the threat quickly dissipates by early evening. The heat continues 
for Thursday with some humidity and chances for afternoon thunderstorms
returning for Friday as a cold front approaches. Showers and 
storms will linger into Saturday, before cooler and drier air 
arrives for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Water vapor shows deep dry layer
overhead as ridge both aloft and at the surface continues to 
build across our cwa. A very weak disturbance approaching the 
Ottawa Valley, along with a slight uptick in mid level moisture 
can be detected on the water vapor loop this morning. This 
combined with developing lake breeze convergence on lee side of 
the dacks may provide just enough low level forcing to produce a
few very isolated showers/storms late this morning/early this 
aftn. Have noted several convective allowing models showing this
potential, so have continued with schc to very low chc wording 
in the fcst. Unlike yesterday if any isolated activity develops,
generally movement should be nw to se based on 0 to 6 km mean 
layer flow from the nw at 20 to 30 knots. Interesting most cape 
profiles are highest during the late morning hours with values 
near 1000 j/kg, but as mixing develops drier air advects to the 
sfc and dwpts drop into the mid/upper 50s most locations and 
cape decreases, along with our shower/storm activity. The best 
chc for activity will be eastern dacks into the central/southern
CPV btwn 16-20z today. The threat should dissipate by 21-22z 
this aftn/evening. Progged 925mb temps btwn 21-22c are a degree 
or two warmer than yesterday, so highs generally lower 80s 
mountains to upper 80s UHI's of the CPV/SLV and lower CT River 
Valley. Tonight any cloud development should quickly dissipate 
by sunset with light winds and clear skies anticipated 
overnight. Temps will once again drop back into the mid 50s 
mountains to mid 60s warmer valleys with trrn driven winds of 2 
to 5 mph. Fog potential looks limited due to dry air and most 
locations several days removed from precip. However a few 
isolated areas of patchy fog is possible eastern/central VT btwn
08-11z.

Mid/upper level ridge directly overhead, along with sfc high pres 
will result in dry conditions with warm temps. Progged 925mb temps 
are 22-23c, which places our high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s. 
Thinking 92f or so at BTV with 86f at slk. Sfc dwpts are slightly 
warmer on Thursday with values in the upper 50s to l/m 60s, will 
result in some slightly higher heat index values. Otherwise, no 
forcing aloft and deep dry layer in place, will keep forecast dry at 
this time. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...Eastward progression of mid-level 
ridge axis to coastal New England will allow for increasing 
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms during the period. 
Northward moisture surge in the sfc- 850mb layer on western 
periphery of the ridge brings increasing clouds and the chance 
of a few showers late Thursday night across the St. Lawrence 
Valley. Appears conditions remain dry further east Thursday 
night. Overnight lows mainly in the mid-upper 60s, except a few 
lower 60s in the northern Adirondacks and across eastern VT. 

While there isn't any particularly strong low-level convergence on 
Friday, modest height falls in wswly mid-level flow will increase 
chances for daytime showers and thunderstorms. As boundary layer 
dewpoints surge to near 70F across the St. Lawrence Valley (with 
SSWLY winds 10-15 mph), should see SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg 
develop across nrn NY. Combination of lower dewpoints/instability 
across VT will keep thunderstorm potential a bit lower from the 
Champlain Valley ewd. Have indicated PoPs 40-50% across nrn NY 
Friday afternoon, and generally 15-30% across VT. Despite the 
chances for precipitation, similarly very warm temperatures are 
still anticipated with partly sunny conditions, with valley highs 
generally 85-90F. Appears heat index valleys will peak near 95 
degrees across the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday afternoon for a 
period of 1-2 hours. Close to heat advisory criteria in the St. 
Lawrence Valley and will add mention to the Hazardous Weather 
Outlook accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface cold front moving NW-SE 
from sern Ontario and swrn Quebec across the North Country will 
bring likely period of rain showers (60-70% PoPs areawide) late 
Friday night and into the day Saturday. May see a few embedded 
thunderstorms, but overall severe threat is low given marginal 
mid-level lapse rates and early morning FROPA during what is 
typically a diurnal minimum in convective activity. Should see 
low temperatures 65-70F during Friday night. Will see 
temperatures about 10 degrees cooler for highs on Saturday 
compared to forecast conditions Friday afternoon, with Saturday 
afternoon temps generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with 
some late day partial sunshine possible. Thereafter, high 
pressure anchored across the Great Lakes should bring a pleasant
stretch of weather Sunday through Tuesday. North to 
northwesterly low-level flow during the period will provide low 
humidity levels, and high temperatures will be in the upper 70s 
on Sunday, and lower 80s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Aviation concern early this morning will
be patchy fog at slk/mpv. Latest obs and satl trends show
developing fog at slk with vis jumping around btwn 1/2sm and
4sm the past hour, but expect them to trend toward lifr by 07z.
Meanwhile, fog development at mpv will be btwn 07-08z, as sfc
obs show a 2 to 3 degree spread btwn temp/dwpt and cross over
temps just being reached now. A brief period of mvfr in br
possible at rutland around sunset, due to vcsh shower during the
evening hours, but confidence in ifr conditions is low due to se
flow of 4 to 7 knots. Conditions will quickly become vfr at all
sites by 12z with some fair wx cumulus clouds developing by late
morning/early aftn as convective temps are reached. An isolated
shower is possible in the VC of the BTV/PBG taf sites btwn 16z-
20z today. Light south winds of 4 to 8 knots anticipated. 

Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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