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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 5 Jul 2019 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (272 lines)

Expires:201907052000;;156550
FPUS51 KBTV 051034
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019


VTZ006-052000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
631 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Light and variable
winds, becoming south around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers until midnight,
then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after
midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Humid
with highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming
northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Less humid with lows in the mid 50s. North winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Less humid with highs in the lower 70s. North winds
around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201907051100;;156389
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 05 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    73  62  68 E3        30.10S                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      60  58  92 CALM      30.19S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      58  56  93 CALM      30.15S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     59  58  96 MISG      30.15S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      58  57  97 CALM      30.20R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      69  62  77 S3        30.13S                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    67  62  84 SE13      30.16S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      61  59  93 CALM      30.18R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      69  64  85 SE3       30.09R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      64  60  89 S5        30.15F                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      63  58  83 N3        30.16S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     68 N/A N/A W20         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  64  73 S12G18      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     73  66  78 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     73  64  73 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;148676
FXUS61 KBTV 050721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures continue today with increasing humidity 
levels, along with the chances for showers and thunderstorms, 
especially northern New York. As a slow moving cold front approaches 
the area on Saturday, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms 
are likely, along with localized heavy rainfall. Isolated flash 
flooding is possible in areas that see training convection on 
Saturday. Much cooler and less humid conditions return for Sunday 
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 302 AM EDT Friday...Water vapor shows mid/upper level ridge 
shifting toward eastern New England, while developing south/southwest
flow aloft occurs over the Ohio Valley into northern New York. 
00z pw analysis from RAOB data shows a ribbon of enhanced values
in the 1.75 to 2.10 range across the mid Atlantic into western 
NY, which will continue to advect into our cwa today ahead of 
approaching cold front. This leading edge of deeper moisture, 
along with a weak short wave will interact with increasing 
levels of instability to produce a threat of showers/storms 
across northern NY today. Soundings at MSS/SLK continue to show 
CAPE profiles in the 1500 to 2000 j/kg range with pws values 
increasing to 1.6 to 2.0 inches. Still some uncertainty on areal
coverage of precip this aftn/evening, so kept pops in the chc 
30-40% range, but idea of isolated heavy downpours is likely 
with the stronger convective cores. Soundings continue to 
support high EL near 40kft, along with moderate CAPE profiles, 
indicating a favorable environment for precip loading and the 
localized wet microburst, especially with nearly dry adiabatic 
lapse rates from sfc to 850mb. Storm motions are very slow today
at 5 to 15 knots, depending upon location and timing, which 
combined with favorable rain processes, could produce an 
isolated flash flood threat, mainly across northern NY this 
aftn. Have mention heavy rainfall possible in forecast. 
Otherwise, threat slowly shifts toward the CPV during the late 
aftn/evening hours, but with the loss of daytime heating areal 
coverage/intensity of convection should be decreasing. Have 
shown this trend in grids. Progged 925mb temps are similar to 
the previous couple of days generally in the 21-23c range, but 
more clouds today will limit heating some, with highs generally 
in the mid 80s to near 90f, except lower 90s possible near VSF. 
Also, humid values will increase, especially slv where sfc dwpts
will climb into the lower 70s, resulting in heat index values 
in the l/m 90s. These higher dwpts will continue to advect into 
the cpv later this aftn/overnight with increasing humidity 
values. 

A warm and muggy night is anticipated with a chance of 
showers/storms lingering, along with some areas of haze. Given the 
very muggy conditions, cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm or 
two, so have kept pops in the schc to chc range. Lows will range 
from the mid 60s to lower 70s. 

Saturday...an approaching cold front will produce several rounds of 
showers and storms, with localized heavy rainfall likely and 
isolated damaging winds possible. WPC continues to place our cwa in 
slight risk for exceeding flash flood guidance, while SPC has bumped 
most of our cwa into marginal for severe, with damaging winds as the 
primary threat. Latest trends have system coming thru in several 
pieces with pre-frontal trof arriving between 15-18z, followed by 
actual sfc cold front btwn 21z-00z Sat. Pre-storm environment will 
be characterized as moderate CAPE and low shear, but shear 
increases during the late afternoon hours associated with ribbon
of stronger 850 to 700mb winds. This environment indicates 
multiple cell/clusters of disorganized storms are likely with 
localized heavy rainfall likely, especially with pw values near 
2.0, warm cloud layer near 12kft, and approaching dynamics to 
enhance deep layer lift. Initially the 925mb to 700mb jet is 
parallel to pre-frontal trof, so training of convective is 
likely, given vector analysis, but as sfc boundary approaches 
winds shift to more of northwest direction and storm motions 
will improve. Thinking the greatest threat for isolated flash 
flooding will be in poor drainage urban areas or where training 
storms occur over complex trrn, given the very high precip rates
anticipated. The severe threat is small, but an isolated 
microburst or two is possible within the stronger convective 
cores, especially with EL btwn 40-45 kft. Temps mainly in the 
80s on Saturday with very humid conditions expected with dwpts 
in the upper 60s to l/m 70s. Pops will be in the likely to cat 
(60- 80%) range on Saturday with heavy rainfall wording in 
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...CUpper shortwave/trough and cold front
progresses south of area Saturday night with showers/thunderstorms
mainly gone by this time with a cooler/drier airmass as high 
pressure across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi river 
valley shifts east for Sunday and beyond. Sunday morning lows in
the 50s/60s with slowly dropping dewpoints in M-U50s but drier 
air continues with Highs on Sunday in the 70s and dewpoints 
dropping into the 40s/lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...Mother Nature's AC will be here Sunday
night with lows in the 50s and even some upper 40s. Surface 
ridge maintains control through the period slowly shifting east 
offshore by late Wednesday into Thursday with Upper Level ridge 
building once again for mainly dry conditions until Wed ngt-Thu.
Therefore rising heights each day and airmass moderating a few 
degrees each day, thus Sunday will be the coolest day and 
moderating into the mid 80s by Tuesday and dewpoints in the 50s.

Wed night-Thu...Upper level ridge departs with another northern 
stream shortwave and cold front dropping down Wed ngt but manily Thu 
at this time for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail overnight
into Friday, as mid/upper level clouds overspread our western
taf sites. The combination of clouds and VAD 925mb winds of 15
to 20 knots should limit fog/br production, maybe a brief window
of mvfr vis 3-5sm at slk/mpv. Otherwise, the threat for showers
and storms increases across our western taf sites on Friday with
mvfr vis/cig possible in the heavier activity btwn 15z-00z.
These storms will slowly spread toward the cpv by late aftn and
weaken with the loss of instability. As low level moisture
increases on Friday Night some areas of br/hz are possible,
especially slk/mpv with mvfr vis. Light and variable winds
overnight will become 5 to 10 knots with some localized gusts to
15 knots during peak heating in aligned south to north valleys. 

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop across northern New York
today with a few stronger storms capable of producing very
heavy rainfall in a short period of time. This increases the
risk of isolated flash flooding. The threat for additional 
showers and thunderstorms increases across northern New York and
Vermont on Saturday with localized heavy rainfall likely. 
Isolated flash flooding is possible on Saturday where multiple 
rounds of thunderstorms train over a particular, especially
across complex terrain or around urban areas with poor 
drainage. Given the warm rain processes and available moisture 
in the atmosphere, rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are 
possible in the strongest storms.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Banacos/SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Taber
HYDROLOGY...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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November 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 4
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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