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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 2

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 8 Jul 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (213 lines)

Expires:201907082000;;307863
FPUS51 KBTV 080756
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
353 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019


VTZ006-082000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
353 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds,
becoming northwest around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable winds,
becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 60. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:201907081100;;314221
ASUS41 KBTV 081030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      53  49  86 NE3       30.02R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       46  46 100 CALM      30.08R VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      46  45  96 CALM      30.05S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  47 100 MISG      30.03R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      47  46  93 CALM      30.06R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      49  46  90 SE6       30.03S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       48  48 100 CALM      30.04R VSB 1/2          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      55  52  92 SE5       30.01S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      47  47 100 SW3       30.04S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      51  47  86 CALM      30.00S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W2          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  54  72 SE6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  54  82 S8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  55  94 E5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;308714
FXUS61 KBTV 080813
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
413 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place through the middle of the week and will
keep the weather dry with each successive day a degree or two warmer.
The next chance for rain comes through Thursday into Friday as a
frontal system tracks through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Monday...High pressure is in firm control over
the region today and we'll see mostly quiet weather across the 
North Country through the next two days. With yesterday being so
dry, I've pulled most of the fog out of the forecast. Saranac 
Lake is already 7 degrees below the crossover temp and fog 
hasn't developed at the ASOS nor is fog visible on satellite as 
of 330am. The exception is across the Saint Lawrence River and 
the NAMnest depicted this nearly to the hour exactly. So I used 
the NAMnest visibility grid to add in fog over the Saint 
Lawrence while removing it elsewhere.

This afternoon a smoke plume should ride over the North Country
and may have a damping effect on max temps but the larger 
impact will be to any outdoor users who plan on hiking any of 
the taller mountains. Based on HRRR Smoke forecasts, the smoke 
plume will be fairly highly concentrated around 6,000 feet with
significantly less concentration at 1000 feet. So I'm thinking
that any elevations from around 3800 feet and higher will have 
the potential to be affected by the smoke plume.

Temps will be near seasonal today but seasonably warm tomorrow 
as highs warm into the mid to upper 80s with lows Monday night 
in the 50s except for the colder hollows which will drop into 
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Monday...Quiet weather continues into the short term
period for Tuesday night through Wednesday as surface high pressures
shifts east off the Atlantic seaboard and the upper level ridge axis
tracks into the Northeast. The result will be a continuation of dry
and seasonably warm conditions with humidity on a slight increase
but still comfortable with dewpoints solidly in the upper 50s to low
60s. Overnight lows will range from the 50s to low 60s, and while
925mb temps around +22C support the chance for some areas to be
close to 90 on Wednesday, increasing moisture in the 300-500mb layer
will likely ease temps back a bit into the mid 80s for most
locations under filtered sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Monday...Conditions become more unsettled and quite
uncertain going into the latter part of the work week as models
differ in the amplitude and strength of the aforementioned upper
ridge in place over the northeast ahead of an upper trough which has
its origins in the Pacific Northwest this morning. The ECMWF
solution offers a stronger ridge and less amplification of the
approaching trough holding off precipitation chances until Thursday
night, while the GFS is more aggressive with the strength of the
trough and has an earlier arrival time of early Thursday morning. A
quick glance at the current RAP analysis shows the ECMWF may have
initialized the trough better on the West Coast so have leaned
slightly towards that solution, but the system has the whole CONUS
to track over so I can't rule out the GFS completely yet. Have
focused the highest PoPs for Thursday night through Friday when
models do agree the trough will pass with a surge of PWAT's possibly
up towards 2" supporting the idea of a period of moderate rain.

Saturday at this point looks to be the better day of the weekend
with a brief ridge of high pressure building in behind the departing
trough, but for Sunday the flow aloft turns zonal with several weak
shortwave troughs potentially passing just north of the border
supporting some chances for showers. Temps through the period look
to be slightly above normal with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows
in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR expected through the TAF period at 
all sites with some possible brief LIFR ceilings in low stratus
at SLK/MPV. Radiational cooling will be strong tonight but with
another day of dry air I think the scope of fog will be limited
so I've opted to remove prevailing fog. Winds will be light and
variable to nearly calm at all sites overnight becoming light 
northerly after daybreak.


Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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