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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 20 Jul 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (249 lines)

Expires:201907202000;;339987
FPUS51 KBTV 200746
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019


VTZ006-202000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
343 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Hot with highs in the lower 90s.
West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. West winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Heat index values in the mid
90s until midnight. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Humid with highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201907201100;;346759
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      72  69  90 SE3       29.79R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      68  67  96 S3        29.86R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      72  69  90 CALM      29.81R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     68  67  96 MISG      29.78R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    72  68  89 CALM      29.84R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      76  72  87 SW6       29.83S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      72  69  90 NW3       29.82R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      77  73  88 S5        29.77S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      75  71  87 W7        29.81R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    73  71  93 CALM      29.85R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     72 N/A N/A S1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     68 N/A N/A W36         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     75  72  88 S5          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     81  70  69 W9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     77  72  83 E3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;343071
FXUS61 KBTV 200843
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
443 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat advisories remain in effect for today through Sunday due 
to hot and humid conditions. Temperatures today will warm into
the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.
On Sunday, a front will move through bringing some relief from 
the heat for northern portions of the forecast area. High
temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s. Isolated to 
scattered thunderstorms are possible starting Saturday afternoon
through Sunday. More seasonable weather returns by early next 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Saturday...Little changes made to previous 
forecast regarding the heat and humidity for today. Heat 
headlines are in effect areawide for heat indices in the mid to 
upper 90s with a few locations reaching the low 100s. Expect 
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in 
the low to mid 70s. The main forecast challenge for today will 
be the potential for convection this afternoon. The main driver 
for this convection will be a piece of shortwave energy which is
associated with the decaying MCS currently located over 
Michigan. Taking a blend of the high-res guidance, chances look 
best for convection across our northern zones, but can't 
pinpoint any particular location as guidance is all over the 
place. Guidance has been poor on the evolution of this complex 
both model to model and run to run. At the moment have 
maintained general chance for thunderstorms later this afternoon
and evening across northern New York and northern Vermont 
extending into the Northeast Kingdom. Any convection that does 
develop has the potential to produce strong wind gusts and 
possibly hail given convectively favorable environment. The best
timing for these storms will be during the late afternoon/early
evening.

Overnight lows will remain uncomfortably warm once again with
locations remaining in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A front will
approach the area sometime on Sunday. There are still some
differences in timing for the front and therefore the extent of
convection/precipitation potential possible during the daytime on
Sunday. Currently thinking best chances for precipitation will be
during the late morning/afternoon hours. Highs on Sunday remain in
the upper 80s across northern zones with low 90s across
central/southern VT. A heat advisory remains in effect for western
Addison, Rutland and Windsor counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 440 AM EDT Saturday...Any lingering precipitation will 
wind down during the overnight as the frontal boundary exits the
region and hangs up just to our south. Note that the 20/00z NAM
shows a weak secondary front sliding southward during the 
evening hours, which may result for a few showers, especially in
the northern mountains. Have lowered PoPs quite a bit from the 
previous forecast, now mainly slight chance to very low chance, 
as much of the guidance shows isolated activity at best. 
Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s/lower 60s, making for a 
more comfortable night with lows in a similar range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Saturday...A nearly stationary front will be 
draped just to our south Monday into Tuesday, separating cooler,
drier air from the muggy airmass we've currently got in place. 
A wave of low pressure will slide along the front during the 
Monday-Tuesday time frame, pushing moisture back north as flow 
turns to the south/southwest. PWATs surge back above 1.5 inches 
as precipitation spreads across the region from west to east 
Monday afternoon, continuing overnight into Tuesday. Still some 
differences in where the forecast models place the front and the
heaviest band of rain, but would anticipate some areas in the 
North Country will see upwards of 1.50 inches by the time it's 
all said and done, which should be Tuesday night. Note that 
WPC's latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a Slight Risk 
encompassing south central/southern VT, and this seems 
reasonable. With our area remaining on the cool side of the 
front, don't anticipate much in the way of thunder. Temperatures
will be near to possibly even below seasonal normals given 
abundant cloud cover.

From Tuesday night onward...the upper trough finally pushes through,
shunting the boundary away from the region. However, can't rule out
pop up showers until the trough axis moves to our east, which should
occur Thursday morning. HIgh pressure and northwest to west flow
will dominate thereafter, keeping conditions mainly dry as we head
toward the end of the week. Temperatures will exhibit a warming
trends from Wednesday on; highs will be in upper 70s to lower 80s by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly VFR with intermittent periods of 
MVFR ceilings/BR between 07-09z at all TAF sites. Skies should
remain relatively clear tonight with just some high level 
clouds ~20,000ft and cap clouds across the high terrain. 
Decaying convection currently located over western Great Lakes 
will increase chance for showers across northern New York 
terminals towards 14z. Uncertainty exists in extent of 
precipitation so have mentioned VCSH at KMSS only at this time. 
Chances for precipitation increase during the day but areal 
extent should be limited. Winds generally south/southwest 4-10 
knots overnight, becoming locally gusty in the afternoon on 
Saturday between 15 to 20 knot range.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ019.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ009-011-012.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     NYZ029>031-034.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>028-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...LaRocca

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March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
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March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 5
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
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June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 5
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June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
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March 2001, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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May 1999, Week 3
May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 3
April 1999, Week 2
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March 1999, Week 3
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March 1999, Week 1
February 1999, Week 4
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December 1998, Week 5
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