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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 21 Jul 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (235 lines)

Expires:201907212000;;400437
FPUS51 KBTV 211044
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019


VTZ006-212000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
640 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms until midnight. Lows around 60. Northwest
winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable.
Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and
variable winds. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:201907211100;;399914
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    78  70  76 S10       29.68R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      76  71  85 SW6       29.76R                  
MORRISVILLE    TSTM      76  70  82 S8        29.71R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     69  69 100 MISG      29.68S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      70  68  94 CALM      29.75R FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    73  70  90 SW5       29.77R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      71  68  90 CALM      29.75R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    81  73  77 CALM      29.68R                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    76  71  82 S5        29.71R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      67  65  93 CALM      29.79R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     72 N/A N/A E2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     77 N/A N/A SW6         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     68 N/A N/A W33         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     79  73  83 S6G13       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     77  72  83 SW14        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     75  70  83 S5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;393096
FXUS61 KBTV 210749
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue across the North Country 
today before a cold front brings some relief tonight. Isolated to 
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon ahead of the 
front, while quieter and cooler conditions expected Sunday night. 
The next best chance for rain across the region comes Monday and 
Monday night as low pressure slides along the front positioned just 
to our south. Areas of moderate to heavy rain are possible, mainly 
across southern Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 348 AM EDT Sunday...Very muggy conditions continue this morning
with dewpoints in the 70s across the area. Some scattered showers
are moving eastward into northern NY at this hour, meager remnants
of an MCS that pushed through the Great Lakes yesterday. This
activity will progress eastward through the early morning hours with
perhaps a brief downpour and a rumble of thunder or two. We should
see a break in the precipitation for a few hours once this moves
through, but anticipate additional isolated to scattered convection
to develop this afternoon as a couple of weak surface
fronts/boundaries cross out of Canada. The first will move through
late this morning into the afternoon, ushering in a slightly drier
airmass. The second boundary will be more of a wind shift line, and
this should bring a bit more widespread shower activity this
evening, particularly in northern areas. Instability will be limited
by a mid-level warm layer, and max values will be displaced from
better shear. So while thunderstorms will be possible, don't
anticipate much in the way of any severe potential. That being said,
any stronger storms will be capable of producing briefly heavy
rainfall and some gusty winds. It'll be another hot and muggy day,
especially in our southern areas which will see the aforementioned
lower dewpoint air move in later in the day. Heat index values will
once again spike into the mid 90s in these locations, so the Heat
Advisory remains in effect through the day today.

For tonight...any lingering shower activity will wane by late
evening as daytime heating is lost. It will be noticeably drier as
dewpoints drop through the 60s, giving way to a much more
comfortable night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dry weather
will continue through the morning hours Monday before our next round
returns in the afternoon. Low pressure will slide along a frontal
boundary positioned just to our south, resulting in another surge of
moisture. Steady rain will move into our southern sections during
the afternoon, with the heaviest precipitation in southern Rutland
and Windsor Counties in VT. Temperatures will be much cooler than
what we've seen recently, topping out in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Wave low expected to form along stalled
frontal boundary will bring additional chances for mainly stratiform
rainfall Monday night into early Tuesday. Model discrepancies 
persist, with 00Z ECMWF a bit further north with the sfc low 
track across NYC area and enewd across southern New England. 
Meanwhile, the 00Z GFS soln has the sfc low track south of Long 
Island and south of Cape Cod during Monday night, with more 
minimal QPF across our CWA. Took a model blend at this point, 
indicating PoPs 60-70% Monday night across south-central VT, but
lower to the north and west. In addition to rain, may see some 
patchy fog around, especially across central/ern VT. By 12Z 
Tuesday, indicated PoPs down to 40% for Rutland/Windsor 
counties, and just a slight chance further north. QPF will 
depend on low track, but generally expecting 0.50-0.75" across 
Rutland/Windsor counties, with progressively lesser totals to 
the north and west. Stratiform rain during Monday night becomes 
more showery and gradually more isold during the daylight hours 
Tuesday. Should see increasing sun by afternoon. Low 
temperatures Monday night generally expected in the upper 50s to
lower 60s, with Tuesday's highs mainly in the mid 70s with 
humidity in a more comfortable range by Tuesday afternoon with 
2-m dewpoints falling into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...All in all, a quieter weather pattern
is anticipated during the long- term period, with temperatures 
initially near to slightly below normal for late July Wednesday-
Thursday. Will see temperatures and humidity levels increasing 
once again for Friday and through next weekend, but not to the 
extent observed this weekend. Forecast valley highs generally 
range from the low-mid 80s for Friday, followed by mid to 
possibly upper 80s for Saturday-Sunday. A modest shortwave 
trough in nwly flow brings the best chance for rain shower 
activity and possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday afternoon. 
Otherwise rain chances are 20% or less throughout the long-term 
period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Generally anticipate VFR conditions to 
persist through the period, with exceptions at KMPV and KSLK 
through 12z Sunday. KMPV was the only site that saw rain
Saturday evening, and it has already seen IFR conditions in fog
in the past hour. Expect it will continue to jump around between
MVFR and IFR through 12z. KSLK ceilings will remain MVFR through
daybreak as well, with occasional reductions in visibility due
to fog. Otherwise, scattered showers moving in through the early
morning hours, with MVFR visibility possible in any
precipitation. Another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms is expected mid-afternoon through this evening,
and these too may drop conditions to MVFR from time to time. Winds
will generally be from the south and southwest at speeds of 10 
knots or less, but shift to the west and northwest after 18z on
Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ009-011-012-
     019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Hastings

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