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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 16 Jul 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (245 lines)

Expires:201907162000;;724553
FPUS51 KBTV 161032
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019


VTZ006-162000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
629 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80. South winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers until midnight,
then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with highs in the
mid 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 80s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201907161100;;724455
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      60  56  86 CALM      30.05R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       53  53 100 CALM      30.12S VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       52  51  97 CALM      30.08S VSB 1/2          
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       52  51  97 CALM      30.11R VSB 1/2          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      56  54  93 SE6       30.10R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       54  53  97 CALM      30.10R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      61  59  94 S5        30.03S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      54  54 100 S3        30.08S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      53  51  93 CALM      30.09R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W10         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  61  82 SE9         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  63  88 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  61  88 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;724609
FXUS61 KBTV 161033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Today marks the transition to more humid conditions as higher
dew points move into the region. There may be a few showers this
morning and again later today...but more widespread
precipitation is expected late tonight and especially on
Wednesday. This is when moisture from the remnants of tropical
system Barry interacts with a front dropping down from Canada.
Heavy rainfall is possible which could lead to localized
flooding. The front moves south of the area Wednesday and drier
air moves in for Thursday. The pattern will change once again
with Friday and Saturday experiencing hot and humid conditions 
along with the threat of thunderstorms...some of which could be 
strong to severe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...Just some minor tweaks to account 
for latest radar trends. Area of decaying convection located 
over Lake Ontario has held together over the last couple hours, 
therefore have mainly increased chances for precipitation 
across southwestern areas of St. Lawrence county. This 
precipitation will continue to fizzle out as it moves across our
area as indicated by continued warming cloud tops on satellite 
imagery. Otherwise, going forecast remains in good shape.

Previous Discussion....Warm front and leading edge of deeper 
moisture is moving into southeast Ontario and far western New 
York early this morning. There is an area of showers associated 
with it which will move across portions of northern New York 
before dying out later this morning. Mid level clouds associated
with the front will also decrease in areal coverage this 
afternoon allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to 
mid 80 degree range. This combined with dew points getting into 
the 60s should create enough instability for additional showers 
to develop over parts of northern New York and northern Vermont 
late this afternoon and into the evening hours.

Cold front will eventually work its way southward toward the
region early Wednesday morning and with deep
moisture...precipitable water values around 2 inches...moving up
from the southwest we should see widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday. Going forecast has
mention of heavy rainfall possible and this looks real good.
Have kept in the forecast at this time. Many areas should pick 
up a half inch to an inch...with localized amounts in the 1 to 2
inch range. Localized flooding will also be possible. High
temperatures on Wednesday should only be in the 70s to around
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Trends in the data now suggest cold 
front will push south of the area during the overnight hours as 
northwest flow aloft develops. Thus precipitation gradually 
comes to an end from northwest to southeast during the overnight
hours. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. 
Thursday is looking like a relatively quiet day with some 
moisture returning from the south later in the day for a few 
showers. Highs will return to the upper 70s to mid 80s range.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...No major changes made from previous 
forecast regarding increased chances for heat and humidity, and 
possibility for thunderstorms Friday/Saturday. Building ridge 
across central US will advect in tropical-like airmass with 
temperatures warming to at least 90 Friday and Saturday and 
dewpoints in the low 70s. With the unstable atmosphere, the 
chance exists both days for storms to develop. The better chance
for organized convection appears to be during the 
afternoon/evening on Friday as a boundary moves across the area.
Temps and dewpoints support CAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear values are between 30-35 kts and low level lapse 
rates are around 6.5 C/km. Sounding indicate EML present between
700-500mb with decent dry layer and DCAPE values around 600-900
J/kg. Obviously, convection initiation will be limiting factor 
as cap does exist across area but certainly something that bears
watching as several ingredients favor the potential for 
strong/possibly severe thunderstorms. 

Temperatures remain warm Friday night as winds continue out of the 
south/southwest so many locations will likely not see temperatures 
below 70, especially in the Champlain Valley. Warm overnight 
temperatures will help us rebound back into the 90s for Saturday as 
925mb temperatures warm several degrees from Friday to ~26-27 C. 
Currently have temperatures in the low 90s for valley locations with 
upper 80s across the high terrain. Some guidance suggests 
temperatures well into the mid 90s, however GFS/Euro both show 
subtle boundary oriented W-E across the area and with it clouds/ 
precipitation therefore still some uncertainty in areal extent of 
heat and need for heat headlines.  

After this, temperatures "cool" slightly on Sunday but are still 
above normal with highs in the upper 80s.  Chances for precipitation 
continue on Sunday with impulses continuing to pass through fast 
flow aloft. Lows Sunday night remain warm by North Country standards 
generally in the mid to upper 60s. A pattern change finally appears 
for early next week as a deep mid-latitude trough amplifies across 
the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR through the period with mainly 
clear skies through the remainder of the nighttime hours...just
some passing high clouds. Decaying convection across Ontario 
will bring chance for VCSH at northern New York terminals 
through early morning, otherwise 4000-6000 ft scattered/broken 
deck of cumulus clouds throughout the daytime. Overcast deck and
precipitation chances move in towards 00z as a warm front 
approaches the area. Winds overnight will be light and variable 
turning south/southwesterly between 07-10 knots by 14z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance TSRA,
Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...LaRocca

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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
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August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
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May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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January 2002, Week 1
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May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 2
April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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February 1999, Week 2
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