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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 4

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 27 Jul 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (235 lines)

Expires:201907272000;;687384
FPUS51 KBTV 270655
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019


VTZ006-272000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
251 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in
the mid 80s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and
variable winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201907271100;;696395
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      63  59  87 CALM      30.25R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    56  56 100 CALM      30.33S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      55  54  96 CALM      30.30R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  55  97 MISG      30.29R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       55  54  97 CALM      30.32R VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      59  57  92 CALM      30.27R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      59  56  89 SE8       30.29S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       57  56  96 CALM      30.31R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      64  61  93 CALM      30.25R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      57  57 100 SW5       30.30R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  54  52  93 CALM      30.29R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     68 N/A N/A W3          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A SE7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  64  83 S13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  61  77 SE7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;690585
FXUS61 KBTV 270809
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Another very warm day anticipated across the North Country with
just a small chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm across 
the higher terrain this afternoon. A better chance of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Sunday, with some 
storms capable of frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours. 
Temperatures will continue above normal for Sunday into early 
next week, with additional chances for precipitation on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 401 AM EDT Saturday...Water vapor shows mid/upper level 
ridge across the NE CONUS with deep dry layer overhead as a 
result of large scale subsidence. This dry layer will limit 
areal coverage of potential showers/storms this aftn, along with
the lack of any significant forcing. With that said, most high 
res guidance continues to highlight weak Lake Ontario boundary 
interacting with some sfc based instability to produce a few 
showers/storms across the southern SLV/western Dacks. In 
addition, an isolated storm is possible across the eastern Dacks
associated with lee side trof and Lake Champlain lake breezy 
boundary interaction. Once again, these trrn driven 
showers/storms will be isolated and very limited in areal 
coverage, due to lack of moisture/forcing. Interesting, 
soundings show deep layer mixing thru 800mb with high lcl 
heights, resulting in high cloud bases, which if enough precip 
loading can occur in an updraft, would support some localized 
gusty winds in the stronger cells. Something to watch this aftn 
with any convection. Otherwise, saw BTV reached 89F yesterday, 
and was thinking we should be another degree or two warmer today
with progged 925mb temps near 22c and good dry adiabatic mixing
per soundings. Highs generally range mid 80s to lower 90s with 
moderate rh levels, as some mixing of drier air aloft occurs 
during peak heating. 

Tonight, any lingering precip will quickly end by sunset with 
soundings showing some bl moisture return as dewpoints climb 
back into the mid/upper 60s during the evening hours. A dry 
night anticipated, with best chc for fog across eastern VT 
valleys, as low level winds increase across slv/dacks and parts 
of the CPV. A muggy night with lows ranging from the upper 50s 
slk/nek to mid/upper 60s cpv/uhi's.

Sunday...active day anticipated with scattered pulse-like 
thunderstorms expected across the North Country. The short wave 
and associated mid/upper lvl trof is located over the northern 
Plains/western Great Lakes this morning per latest water vapor. 
This energy will cross our cwa during peak heating/instability 
on Sunday to produce several broken lines of scattered storms. 
The pre-storm environment will feature moderate instability 
parameters with cape of 1500 to 2000 j/kg, while 0 to 6 km is 20
to 25 knots per latest nested nam. The best ribbon of 700 to 
500mb winds will pass to our north, along with strongest forcing
associated with mid/upper level trof shearing out. However, 
tail of 5h vort with some modest height falls and sfc temps 
warming into the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the 60s will 
produce enough instability to promote strong updrafts with the 
stronger convective elements of gusty winds. The potential for 
organized convection, with a widespread severe threat is low, 
however still expect a few stronger storms, with a couple of 
svr/damaging wind gusts possible given large CAPE profiles. 
Also, could not completely rule out an isolated dime to quarter 
size hail report or two, given the cape profiles, but lack of 
shear/wind will keep threat minimal. SPC continues to keep our 
cwa in general thunderstorm outlook, which maybe upgraded in 
future outlooks to marginal per coordination.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 407 AM EDT Saturday...Showers will wind down Sunday night
with loss of daytime heating. Minimum temperatures will remain 
mild though with leftover clouds and a few stray showers. 
Minimum temperatures will range through the 60s. On Monday, 
southwesterly flow will develop ahead of next approaching upper 
level and surface troughs which will be lifting North of the 
Great Lakes on Monday. Monday will be warm with temperatures 
reaching the mid to upper 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 407 AM EDT Saturday...Extended portion of the forecast 
will begin active and warm, ending cooler and less active. 
Surface and upper level lows will lift well northward and a 
front will slowly make its way across our area. Front and best 
shortwave energy will push across the North country mainly on 
Tuesday night. A cooler air mass and large ridge of surface high
pressure will build over the area from Wed onward bringing more
seasonable temperatures and drier conditions. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...High pres both aloft and at the sfc 
continues to produce widespread vfr conditions across our taf 
sites this morning. The combination of clr skies and light 
winds, expect some patchy/shallow ground fog/br to develop at 
slk/mpv btwn 08-11z this morning. Given the lack of recent 
rainfall duration of ifr will be 2 to 3 hour window this morning
with conditions quickly improving by 12z. Otherwise, a spot 
shower is possible this aftn near slk, have mention vcsh, but 
lack of moisture will limit areal coverage. Light trrn driven 
winds overnight will become south 4 to 8 knots today with vfr 
prevailing at all sites. 

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Likely TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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