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SKIVT-L  July 2019, Week 4

SKIVT-L July 2019, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 25 Jul 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (230 lines)

Expires:201907252000;;593015
FPUS51 KBTV 250723
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
319 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019


VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
319 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Patchy dense fog this morning. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the
upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable
winds. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201907251100;;600411
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      58  54  86 CALM      30.07R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       52  51  97 CALM      30.13R VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       52  51  97 CALM      30.09S VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     52  52 100 MISG      30.08R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       49  48  97 CALM      30.11S VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      53  52  98 CALM      30.09R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      53  52  96 SE6       30.10R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       52  51  97 CALM      30.10R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      56  55  96 SE3       30.06R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      49  49 100 SW5       30.10R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      51  49  92 CALM      30.09R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     46 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W20         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  61  88 SE8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  61  88 S10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  59  94 SE5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;595798
FXUS61 KBTV 250821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will be over the region through the 
weekend, and maximum temperatures will reach the lower to upper 
80s each afternoon. Though the temperatures will be warm once 
again, a drier air mass is in place and conditions will not be 
as humid as last weekend. There is an isolated chance of a 
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Friday will be drier. 
Thereafter, there is a chance for showers or an isolated 
thunderstorm over the weekend before widespread precipitation 
moves into the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...Surface high pressure will ridge
into the area today and upper level trough will begin to lift
out of the North Country. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s
to lower 80s. A weak shortwave aloft passes through the upper
level flow this afternoon and will see some scattered to
isolated showers forming, especially over the Adirondacks and
then drifting downstream. Not a lot of moisture available with
this feature, but can not rule out a few showers. CAPE will peak
around 1000 J/kg this afternoon, so thunder will be possible
with these showers though lack of low level shear so don't see
any storms becoming severe. Any showers that develop this
afternoon will die down following sunset with shortwave exiting
to our East. Surface high remains over the region for another
night, so good radiational cooling sets up again. Expect
clearing skies and light winds, possible valley fog once again
as well as any locations that have some rain this afternoon. 
Min temps shouldn't be quite as cold as Thu morning, mainly mid 
50s to lower 60s. Surface high crests overhead Friday morning, 
and warming trend will begin. Temperatures Friday afternoon will
warm to about the lower to upper 80s. Have continued with dry
forecast for Friday with capped soundings and lack of moisture
as well as forcing. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 319 AM EDT Thursday...The synoptic pattern will feature
1026mb sfc high pres axis across the NE CONUS with weak
mid/upper level troughiness. Soundings indicate deep dry layer 
in place with pws an inch or less during this time period, 
resulting in mainly dry conditions with large diurnal temp 
swings. NAM/GFS solutions continue to highlight the slight 
potential for a trrn driven or lake breezy type shower to 
develop on Saturday aftn, so have continued low chc pops. 
However, I would not cancel outdoor plans, as forcing and 
moisture is limited and with very weak flow with 500 mb winds of
5 to 10 knots, movement will be extremely slow. Basically 
anticipating mid summer North Country Chamber of Commerce like 
weather for late July with highs upper 70s to mid 80s and lows 
mainly lower 50s to near 60f with low RH values during this time
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Thursday...General zonal flow aloft develops
across the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS during this time period
with some mid/upper lvl trof amplification toward midweek.
Overall pattern will support above normal temps by 2 to 4
degrees with increasing chcs for aftn/evening showers and
storms by early next week. Have mention 30 pop for Sunday, as
GFS continues to show northern stream short wave energy
interacting with some instability of 500 to 1000 j/kg of cape.
A slight increase in humidity values will be felt on Sunday with
dewpoints climbing back into the 60s while temps warm in the
upper 70s to mid/upper 80s. Chances for showers/storms continue
for Monday thru Weds of next week, as mid/upper level trof tries
to develop. Some uncertainty on overall magnitude of system,
along with areal coverage of potential precip. Have capped pops
at chc (30 to 50%) during this time period, with highest focus
during the peak heating hours when instability will be the
strongest. Progged 925mb temps btwn 20-22c support highs upper
70s/lower 80s mountains towns to mid/upper 80s warmer valleys
with lows generally upper 50s to upper 60s. Have noted the 00z
ECMWF is slightly warmer with developing axis of 24c to 26c
progged 925mb temps for Monday, along with much drier qpf
fields. This solution would support highs mid 80s to lower 90s
most locations. For now will stick close to superblend, but
monitor for potential warmer temps in future forecasts. ECMWF
would support highest pops on Tue/Weds time frame, with very
limit coverage on Sunday/Monday, so idea of chc only looks
reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are generally expected. The
only exception will be localized LIFR at MPV and SLK with 
nocturnal fog 06-12Z. Light and variable winds overnight 
becoming W-SW at 5-10kts during the daylight hours on Thursday. 
Also, anticipate a local lake breeze at PBG with winds 130/07kt 
from late morning through afternoon. We may see an isolated 
afternoon shower or thunderstorm from the Adirondacks eastward 
across western VT during Thursday afternoon. Anticipated limited
coverage precludes mention of tstm in any of the TAFs attm, but
appears main threat would be between 19-23Z. 

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Banacos/Neiles

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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