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SKIVT-L  September 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L September 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 2 Sep 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (234 lines)

Expires:201909022000;;164867
FPUS51 KBTV 020756
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
353 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019


VTZ006-022000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
353 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

.TODAY...Showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then mostly cloudy with a
slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s.
West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
around 70. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 

$$


Expires:201909021100;;172009
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  62  58  86 S14G23    30.04F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  58  56  93 S7        30.13F                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  60  58  92 CALM      30.07F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     58  57  97 MISG      30.10F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      56  55  95 SE9       30.13F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  59  57  93 SE10      30.12F                  
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      59  57  93 CALM      30.14F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      64  62  94 S9G16     30.00F                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   57  57  99 S9G17     30.07F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  59  57  93 N3        30.11F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     57 N/A N/A S2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     59 N/A N/A SW5         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W25         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  61  88 S23G32      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  61  88 S33         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A    N/A N/A N/A SE17        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;168484
FXUS61 KBTV 020902
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
502 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers continue this morning across the region, then
ending from west to east this afternoon. There is a possibility
of a few thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across 
southern and central Vermont. These showers will exit the region
come Monday night with Tuesday expected to be a beautiful day 
across the region. Rainfall and the chances for thunderstorms 
returns on Wednesday as a strong cold front is slated to push 
through the region. Conditions then turn drier for the second 
half of the work week into the weekend with temperatures 5-10 
degrees below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Monday...Rain this morning will become more
showery this afternoon along with a chance for thunder before
ending from west to east headed into this evening. Rain will be
moderate to heavy at times this morning. Axis of rain will be
ending from west to east across the area and mostly exiting the
area by about 21z. Rainfall totals should range from about three
quarters to an inch to about an inch and a half total, some
lower values in the Champlain valley where a shadowing effect
will be evident. Models indicate a bit of surface instability
developing during the afternoon today, so may see some
convective properties to the showers this afternoon. 

Upper level shortwave will push east across the area, finally
exiting our area overnight. Some showers linger as this feature
pushes across our area, ending towards early morning. May see
some fog develop overnight, especially areas that had heavy
rainfall in the previous 24 hours. Still some uncertainty with
how much the sky clears, but certainly a possibility. Ridging 
returns to give us a nice day on Tuesday, dry once again with 
temperatures close to seasonal normals. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...Changeable weather then returns for 
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the approach and passage of a 
fairly decent cold front. Clouds will be on the increase in 
advance of the boundary Tuesday night and with increasing pre- 
frontal southerly flow temperatures will hold on the mild side 
from 55 to 65. Given relative consistency in regard to 00Z 
models' timing of the boundary I'll maintain the idea of chance 
pops arriving after midnight from the western Dacks into the 
SLV. 

The surface front and attendant pre-frontal trough then push through 
the area during the day on Wednesday with scattered to numerous 
showers. As mentioned yesterday, surface-based instability will be 
rather limited despite robust deep layer shear to 50 kts or greater. 
As such I'll maintain the threat of a few storms here and there 
given decent dynamical support aloft, but organized severe is not 
expected. High temperatures to range mainly through the 70s as 
breezy south flow trends northwesterly by early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...Showers then exit fairly quickly by 
early Wednesday evening with skies trending partly cloudy into 
the overnight hours. Behind this feature quiet and seasonably 
mild weather return for Thursday into Friday under weak high 
pressure. This morning's GFS solution suggests a more pronounced
westerly track to Hurricane Dorian as it ejects into the 
westerlies while passing offshore near the 40N/-70W benchmark. 
This appears a clear westerly outlier solution at this point 
however and for now will still assume no impact from this system
for our area. Please consult forecasts from the Natl. Hurricane
Center for the latest on Dorian. By next Saturday there is some
suggestion that another front will affect the area with a few 
showers. For now have leaned on the conservative side 
advertising 20/30 pops as deep layer moisture appears limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Complicated aviation forecast is in store
the next 18 hours. Periods of showers and steady rain expected 
until 18Z in NY terminals and 21Z in VT terminals. Pockets of 
MVFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings falling to 700-2500ft agl 
are possible, especially in heavier rain. TSRA possible at KRUT 
18Z to 00Z Tuesday, but not mentioned in TAF. Terrain effects 
will lend to variability in flight categories as mid-level flow 
increases from 03Z to 15Z. Winds generally 5 to 10 knots, 
except at BTV, where wind speeds up to 15 kts and gusts up to 20
to 25 kts will be possible. Southerly winds will begin to 
become southwesterly beyond 18Z and ceilings will gradually 
improve beyond 21Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient will tighten across the Champlain Valley
tonight with a core of stronger winds also moving overhead. This
should allow winds of 20-30 knots to develop shortly before
midnight and continue through around noon on Monday. Seas will
build from 1-3 ft this afternoon to 3-5 ft after midnight. It's
possible that the broad lake could see seas upwards of 6 ft.
Winds will diminish slowly during the afternoon hours on Monday
with 10-20 knots expected through the daylight hours. Seas will
also diminish to 2-4 feet after sunset. The strongest winds and
highest seas will be north of Kingsland Bay.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Clay

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March 2009, Week 3
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