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SKIVT-L  September 2019, Week 2

SKIVT-L September 2019, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 13 Sep 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:201909132000;;713348
FPUS51 KBTV 130730
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
327 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019


VTZ006-132000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
327 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Sunny. Highs in the mid
60s. Light and variable winds, becoming south 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Clear until midnight, then partly cloudy with a chance
of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
Lows in the mid 40s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
40 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in
the morning. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to
15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

$$


Expires:201909131100;;720962
ASUS41 KBTV 131030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 42 40 92 CALM 30.44R
MONTPELIER FOG 41 41 100 CALM 30.49R VSB 1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 38 37 97 CALM 30.47R VSB 1/2
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 40 40 100 MISG 30.46R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 38 38 97 CALM 30.48R
RUTLAND* FAIR 42 41 96 SE8 30.44R
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 40 38 93 CALM 30.46R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 42 40 95 E5 30.45R
NEWPORT* FAIR 34 34 100 CALM 30.48R FOG
BENNINGTON FAIR 41 38 89 S3 30.42R
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 39 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 43 N/A N/A N20 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 48 46 93 NE1 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 52 46 82 NW12 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 54 48 82 N3 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;715965
FXUS61 KBTV 130822
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the North Country today will give way to an
occluded low pressure system tracking out of the Great Lakes tonight
with gusty southerly winds developing this afternoon and continuing
tonight. Light rainfall spreads into the region late tonight into
early Saturday morning, then shifts eastward throughout the day.
Seasonable temperatures and drier weather will follow on Sunday but
another round of showers will be possible Sunday night. High
pressure will then settle into the region through the first half of
the upcoming week bringing warmer and drier conditions to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 421 AM EDT Friday...After morning valley fog burns off, a
perfect late summer/early fall day is on tap for the North Country
as surface high pressure and a ridge aloft center over the
Northeast. Sunny skies will prevail with just a few passing high
cirrus clouds and high temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As the
high drifts eastward into the Canadian maritimes this afternoon,
increasing southerly winds are expected as the pressure gradient
begins to increase between the departing high and an occluded low
pressure system tracking out of the Great Lakes. Gusts up to 25 mph
are likely in the Champlain Valley during the afternoon and evening
hours, before winds increase markedly across much of the region
tonight as a strong low level jet of 40-50kts moves in ahead of an
approaching cold front. Due to the nocturnal nature of the jet,
mixing will be limited so the full potential of the wind won't be
realized at the surface. Nevertheless, gusts in the 20-30mph are
likely with localized gusts up to 40mph possible along the Lake
Champlain shoreline.

Rain showers associated with the cold front shift into the region
after midnight across northern New York, and after sunrise across
Vermont. Some upslope and shadowing effects are expected due to the
strong low/mid level flow, and expect showers to be light in nature
because of this with overall QPF amounts generally less than a
quarter inch through Saturday. Bulk of the rainfall occurs Saturday
morning, then tapers off for the afternoon with the frontal passage.
Wind, clouds and precip tonight will keep temps mild in the 50s to
low 60s west of the Greens, but still cool eastward in the 40s.
Highs Saturday will run in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 421 AM EDT Friday...Moisture axis pushes east of the North
Country on Saturday night with any remaining showers quickly
exiting. Lows will be above normal from lingering clouds falling
into the 50s. Much of Sunday should be dry. Southerly return flow
becomes reestablished, though it is not very strong and becomes
west-southwesterly during the day. Max temperatures should top out
near seasonal norms in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A shortwave will
advect across the area during the afternoon. It does not have much
to work with as forecast soundings indicate only a shallow layer of
moisture available, and with more westerly winds, warm advection and
low-level convergence will be lacking. It is possible that we see
mostly virga, but have offered some 20% PoPs for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 421 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridging is expected to build over the
Central US, with a shortwave digging into the North Country ahead of
this feature on Monday. Models generally agree on the synoptic set-
up, but disagree on placement and strength of certain features that
play a role in Monday's weather. Surface high pressure will develop
across northern Quebec Province while a weak mid-level low slides to
our south. This should result in a favorable set up for overrunning
along a strengthening thickness gradient. The GFS is the most
aggressive, producing widespread rain over the Adirondacks and much
of Vermont, while the EC/CMC are much weaker with light
precipitation south of the forecast area. While a few SREF members
and most GEFS members have precipitation in the region, other
ensemble suites indicate they are not in the majority. Given the
pattern though, 20-30% PoPs seems reasonable for Monday.

Beyond Monday, deep layer ridging will be in control for the work
week. After a cool day on Monday, expect a gradual trend upwards
with near to above normal temperatures with dry, pleasant weather.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through
the period with the exception being VLIFR fog at KMPV/KMSS and
briefly KSLK from 07-13Z. Thereafter, just some passing cirrus
are expected through the day with clouds lowering and thickening
after 00Z as our next system approaches. Light winds overnight
will increase from the south/southwest through the day with
locally some gusts to 20kts at KBTV/KPBG.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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