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SKIVT-L  September 2019, Week 5

SKIVT-L September 2019, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 30 Sep 2019 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (217 lines)

Expires:201909302000;;569606
FPUS51 KBTV 300801
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019


VTZ006-302000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
357 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...Patchy frost this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the
lower 60s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers until
midnight, then cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows in
the upper 40s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance
of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows
around 50. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Less humid with highs in the mid
50s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:201909301100;;576142
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      42  38  85 NE3       30.39R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       36  36 100 CALM      30.42S VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       35  35 100 CALM      30.41S VSB 1/2          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  36 100 MISG      30.39S                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     33  33  99 CALM      30.40S FOG              
RUTLAND*       FAIR      40  38  93 CALM      30.38S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      36  35  96 CALM      30.41R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      41  40  95 SE3       30.39S                  
NEWPORT*       FOG       32  32 100 CALM      30.39F VSB 3/4          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      41  39  93 SE3       30.36R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  43  81 SE5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  45  87 NW12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  43  76 NW12        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;572340
FXUS61 KBTV 300855
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
455 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A nice start to the week is expected Monday with increasing clouds 
through the day and slightly warmer temperatures. Conditions then 
turn more unsettled with periods of rain likely through the rest of 
the week. Temperatures will turn cooler for mid to late week, as 
well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will crest over the North
Country this morning before gradually shifting eastward this
afternoon. Hence expect a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Flow
will turn to the south this afternoon as the ridge axis moves east,
and this will allow for warmer temperatures than yesterday. Highs
will mainly be in the lower to mid 60s.

The dry weather comes to an end tonight as warm air advection begins
in earnest around the back of the departing high and ahead of low
pressure sliding across central Ontario. Moisture and lift will
increase as well with a low-level jet lifting across the region
overnight. CAMs indicate scattered to numerous showers spreading
across the region after midnight and continuing into Tuesday
morning. The low moves north of the international border Tuesday,
and expect shower coverage to wane for several hours during the day
as the best dynamics lift to our north and drier air briefly works
into the North Country. However, showers will redevelop in the
afternoon as a mid-level jet moves overhead. This will usher in
copious amounts of moisture as evidenced by PWATs approaching 2
inches by late in the day. Instability will be meager given
unimpressive lapse rates, but a few hundred J/kg of CAPE will allow
for perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, mainly in northern NY. The
aforementioned jet will result in decent 0-6km shear of around 40
kt, so if any stronger convection is able to hold together, a few
strong wind gusts would be possible. Note that northern NY remains
in SPC's Day 2 Marginal Risk. The jet will also make for breezy
south to southwest winds Tuesday afternoon, though the
aforementioned poor lapse rates/warming aloft will limit optimal
mixing potential. Still, gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible,
especially in the higher terrain and the St Lawrence Valley due to
channeling. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs
reaching into the 70s in most spots. The exception will be far
eastern portions of VT where 60s will be likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 455 AM EDT Monday...Model guidance continues to indicate that
the North Country will see an active pattern through mid-week.
Stationary cold front will remain over the region through Tuesday
night. Ridge of surface high pressure builds into the region from
north of the Great Lakes and will help to push stationary front
through the area on Wednesday. The heaviest QPF is expected Tuesday
night into early Wednesday with QPF amounts between 0.75-1.0". At
this time, we are not looking at any widespread hydro concerns
however any embedded/training convection could bring locally heavy
rainfall with sharp rises on small creeks and streams. As the
boundary sinks southward, precipitation will come to an end from
North to South.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 455 AM EDT Monday...Will have a break from rain Wednesday night
into Thursday morning before another low moves across the area
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will begin to trend below normal
beginning on Thursday with high temperatures only reaching the low
to mid 50s. This pattern will continue through the weekend with
another reinforcing shot of cold air on Friday. Highs through the
remainder of the period will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with low
temperatures dipping into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Fall-like
weather is in store for Friday and Saturday with brisk north winds
and cloudy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through the 
period. There will be broken ceilings AOA 10 kft. Winds will 
generally be under 10 knots through the period. No precipitation
is expected, thus visibilities will be in the VFR category.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-006>008-
     010-012-016-017.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-030-031-
     034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 3
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April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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February 1999, Week 1
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