Expires:201909292000;;516148
FPUS51 KBTV 290651
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
248 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019


VTZ006-292000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
248 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then clearing. Highs in the
upper 50s. North winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds
around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Light and
variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs around
70. Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 50. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 

$$


Expires:201909291100;;525661
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    52  43  71 N10       30.30R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    53  51  93 N7        30.28R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    49  43  80 N8        30.28R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  50  86 MISG      30.23R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    49  47  93 NW8       30.27R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    56  53  90 VRB3      30.25R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    62  51  67 VRB6      30.22R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    49  41  75 N9        30.34R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    46  43  91 N15G22    30.31R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      60  54  80 NW5       30.22R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A W8          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     46 N/A N/A W2          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A W37         N/A  WCI  26          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  41  71 N2G15       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  43  71 N25         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  48  82 NW22G28     N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;517430
FXUS61 KBTV 290723
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and bring below 
normal temperatures to the area along with clearing skies and north 
winds. It will turn chilly tonight with patchy frost likely. Then we 
will see a warming trend and the increasing threat for showers 
starting late Monday into Tuesday. Cooler conditions arrive mid to 
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Today will be a mostly sunny but cool and
breezy day with high pressure gradually building in from the
northwest. Low clouds currently blanket much of the area this
morning, but these will erode through the morning hours as drier air
works into the region. North winds will remain on the breezy side
this morning before abating a bit this afternoon as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Cold air advection will keep temperatures cooler
than normal today with highs topping out around 60. These cooler
temps will continue overnight with the high cresting directly
overhead by early Monday morning. The temperature forecast is
complicated a bit by mid clouds rotating around the upper ridge
which will spread over the region from west to east this evening and
overnight. Current thinking is that this cloud cover will be thin
enough and/or move in late enough that temps will be able to drop
substantially in the evening hours, especially in locations east of
the Greens as clouds will arrive latest there. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 30s across portions of the Adirondacks and much of
eastern VT, with patchy frost likely. Have therefore issued a Frost
Advisory for these areas. Please note that Essex County, VT is not
included in the advisory since they have already had a widespread
frost and the growing season is therefore considered over.
Elsewhere, temperatures will bottom out in the upper 30s to lower
40s. The high will move east of the region later Monday, allowing
south flow to develop in the afternoon. Increasing moisture ahead of
an approaching warm front may result in a few afternoon showers from
the Adirondacks westward, but overall anticipate a dry start to the
work week. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, mainly in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...The short-term forecast period will 
feature changeable weather conditions as deep-layer ridge in 
place across NY and New England to start the period Monday night
gradually breaks down. Based on 00Z ECMWF and GFS, it continues
to appear that surface low will track well to our north and 
west early Tuesday morning. However, surface warm front shifting
newd across the North Country will bring increasing chances for
shower activity. Indicated 30-50 PoPs for light showers around 
daybreak Tuesday, with the highest PoPs across far nrn NY. 
Should also see a period of gusty S-SW winds (up to 25- 30 mph 
in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys) following warm 
frontal passage. Air mass is quite warm on Tuesday, with 850mb 
temps of +14 to +15C expected. That said, variable cloudiness 
and chances for rain showers will keep sfc temperatures 
generally in the low-mid 70s. If sunshine/mixing is greater than
currently anticipated, highs closer to 80F on Tuesday afternoon
would be possible. Also, carried a slight chance of 
thunderstorms for Tuesday based on 00Z NAM CAPEs approaching 
500-1000 J/kg during the peak heating period Tuesday afternoon. 
Sfc dewpoints increasing into the low 60s and PW values 
increasing to 1.6 to 1.8" late in the day will also contribute 
to locally heavy downpours with any convective storms that do 
develop. 

Tuesday night/Wednesday: May see a brief lull in precipitation 
during Tuesday night, but eventually, sfc cold front sags sewd from 
Ontario into our northern zones toward daybreak Wednesday, and 
eventually southward into s-central VT by Wednesday afternoon. The 
00Z GFS indicates pronounced anafrontal structure, thus may see 
moderate rainfall within frontal zone throughout much of the day on 
Wednesday. Also appears PW values will be quite high for early 
October, generally 1.7" to 1.9", which would also contribute to 
widespread moderate rainfall. Present indications suggest a 
widespread 1" rainfall is possible Tuesday night through the first 
half of Wednesday as the frontal boundary interacts with rich 
moisture in place. Likely not sufficient QPF for any significant 
hydro concerns, but cloudy conditions and periods of rain will be 
widespread on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night generally mid-upper 50s 
south, and upper 40s to lower 50s for northern sections. Cloud cover 
and developing north winds will hold temps in the upper 50s to near 
60F along the intl border, and mid-upr 60s across Rutland/Windsor 
counties with later arrival of frontal boundary and onset of low-
level CAA. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Should see somewhat quieter weather 
conditions returning for the long-term forecast period, as 
frontal zone sags south of the region Wednesday night, and dry 
N-NE trajectories from Ontario and Quebec usher in seasonably 
cooler conditions, with high pressure anchored north of the 
Great Lakes. As frontal zone progresses just south of the 
region, should see some partial/gradually clearing Wednesday 
night, especially across nrn sections. If clearing is 
sufficient, overnight lows in the mid-upper 30s will be possible
away from the Champlain Valley. Next shortwave trough 
traversing along the frontal boundary to our south brings 
additional chances for rainfall late Thursday into Thursday 
night (40-60 PoPs). The increase in clouds and continued 
northerly low-level flow should keep high temperatures in the 
low-mid 50s for Thursday. A cold mid-upper level trough sweeping
sewd across Quebec into northern New England will bring a 
reinforcing shot of cooler air, with highs in the upper 40s to 
lower 50s expected for both Friday and Saturday. There is a 
chance that the first snowflakes of the season will be seen 
across the higher elevations Friday evening/night as 850mb temps
fall to -2C to -4C per 00Z GFS. Question will be maintenance of
saturated layer at temperatures colder than -10C to generate 
ice and snow growth within the cloud layer. At this time, it's 
uncertain if deeper moisture will be maintained for mountain 
snow showers/flurries, or if we'll see a shallower cloud layer 
without precipitation (but with some light rime potential over 
the mountains). Lows Friday night and Saturday night generally 
30-38F. High pressure with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies
expected for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Generally looking at MVFR/VFR ceilings 
through about 14z Sunday before areal coverage of clouds 
decreases and VFR conditions develop for the remainder of the 
period. The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV 
where ceilings will be in the IFR categories through about 06z 
before ceilings slowly lift. Winds will generally be from the 
northwest as a cold front moves east of the area. Speeds will be
10 knots or less. Winds will become more north and northeast 
after 12z...but speeds will remain 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for 
     VTZ003-007-008-010.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for 
     NYZ030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Hastings

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