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SKIVT-L  January 2020, Week 1

SKIVT-L January 2020, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 5 Jan 2020 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (260 lines)

Expires:202001052100;;887454
FPUS51 KBTV 051107
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
604 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020


VTZ006-052100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
604 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Total snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in
the mid 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers after
midnight. Lows around 9 above. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable.
Chance of snow 20 percent. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then
snow showers likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting
to 2 inches possible. Highs in the upper 20s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Lows around
20. West winds 15 to 20 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs around 30. South
winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely. Little or no snow accumulation.
Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Much colder with lows 5 below to zero.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs 15 to 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Highs in
the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs around 40. Chance
of precipitation 60 percent. 

$$


Expires:202001051200;;888536
ASUS41 KBTV 051130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN JAN 05 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  29  22  75 NW13G26   29.69R WCI  19          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    25  22  88 NW14G22   29.64R WCI  13          
MORRISVILLE    FLURRIES  26  21  81 N8        29.65R WCI  18          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     28  22  78 MISG      29.59R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  24  21  87 W9        29.61R WCI  15          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    28  25  91 N8        29.68R WCI  19          
RUTLAND*       FLURRIES  28  28 100 NW15      29.64R WCI  16          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    33  24  69 VRB7      29.61R WCI  27          
HIGHGATE*      FLURRIES  29  27  92 NW5       29.71R WCI  24          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    24  21  91 NW3       29.63R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    31  24  75 NW7       29.66R WCI  24          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     23 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     23 N/A N/A NW3         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     30  28  93 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     14   9  79 N24         N/A  WCI  -5          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  27  80 NW15        N/A  WCI  22          

$$


Expires:No;;887991
FXUS61 KBTV 051115
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
615 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional snow showers will be possible this morning but any 
lingering showers will taper off this afternoon. Temperatures today 
will return to near normal values with highs generally in the lower 
to mid 20s under cloudy skies. A weak front will bring additional 
snow showers to the North Country on Monday with 1-3 inches of 
accumulation expected. Another system will track through the region 
on Wednesday with another round of snow showers on tap for us. A 
brief blast of arctic air will move in on Thursday with coldest 
temperatures seen in about a month with lows in some locations 
dropping below zero. A return to above normal temperatures is 
expected Friday and through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 338 AM EST Sunday...The upper level trough axis is moving
through the North Country this morning with a weak embedded
shortwave entering the trough. This shortwave is well depicted on
water vapor imagery this morning and will be the focus for
additional light snow showers through the morning hours. While
moisture in the snow growth layer continues to quickly wane, the
increased lift through the layer should allow us to squeak out a few
snow showers. These showers will likely be largely confined to the
highest elevations where another 1-2 inches will be possible with
only a dusting likely at lower elevations. Clouds will be tough to
get rid of this afternoon due to an isothermal layer/weak inversion
keeping a lot of moisture trapped in the low levels. Dry air should
eventually prevail but that probably won't happen until after sunset
when we finally see a decrease in the low clouds. This should yield
near steady to slightly cooling temperatures today with cold air
advection through the low and mid levels throughout the day. With
skies expected to clear after sunset, we have trended temperatures
slightly cooler with lows tonight dropping into the mid single
digits to mid teens.

Just as the low clouds move out tonight, mid to high clouds will be
quick to spread back into the region. Flow will switch to the
southwest as we head into Monday morning ahead of a weak occluded
front that will help advect a little bit of moisture into the
region. Snow showers will overspread the region late Monday morning
but with a lack of moisture available to work with, snow should
remain very light. Higher elevations could see 2-3 inches of
snowfall while lower elevations will see up to 2 inches. Snow will
linger through much of the day Monday but should little overall
impact as the snow will remain light with temps near or below
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 343 AM EST Sunday...A period of light snow will be ending
acrs our fa on Monday Night as best short wave energy and
associated ribbon of mid level moisture lift north of cwa. Have
continued with likely/cat pops mountains and schc/chc in the
valleys from 00z to 03z, before quickly tapering off pops/qpf.
Temps mainly hold in the 20s overnight with clouds/precip and
some winds. Next system arrives in pieces on Tues Night with
southern stream energy and associated weak 1008mb low pres
passing near the 40/70 benchmark, while potent northern stream
energy with limited moisture is digging across the
central/northern Great Lakes. The general idea of increasing
moisture profiles and better dynamics from approaching mid/upper
lvl trof will increase pops on Tues Night into Weds. Have pops
increasing to likely toward 12z Weds, but any accumulation
during this time period will be light and generally under an
inch. Temps warm into the mid 20s to l/m 30s Tues, with lows in
the 20s to near 30f Tues night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 343 AM EST Sunday...The large scale synoptic pattern
remains unchanged from the previous forecaster thinking, with a
fast progressive flow aloft prevailing. A brief shot of arctic 
air is expected Weds Night into Thurs, followed by a significant
warm up as we head into late week. A sharp arctic boundary will
drop south across our cwa on Weds, along with embedded 5h vort 
and some favorable mid lvl moisture. Still some uncertainty on 
amount of instability with clouds, which could impact low lapses
and limit the potential for snow squalls. The idea of scattered
to numerous snow showers looks good on Weds, with several 
inches of snow accumulation possible in the mountains. By 12z 
Thurs strong 1040mb high pres is nosing into the SLV, while 
925mb temps drop to near -20c. Given the cold llvl thermal 
profiles and the potential for clearing skies/light winds across
our western cwa, have dropped temps 3 to 5 degrees below 
guidance in slv/western dacks. Further east the combination of 
wind and lingering clouds will keep temps mainly in the negative
single digits to near 10f, while slv/western dacks drop into 
the -5f to -10f range by 12z Thurs. Thursday is dry with a non-
diurnal temp trend expected for Thurs Night as developing waa 
occurs with brisk 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 45 knots. A warmer
but breezy day is anticipated on Friday, with a period of 
rain/snow showers possible. Guidance is in pretty good agreement
with deep southwest flow developing with much above normal 
temps Friday into Saturday as initial sfc low pres tracks well 
to our west, placing us well established in the warm sector. 
This sfc low pres will help sag a cold front acrs our cwa on 
Sat, with a sharpening low level thermal boundary developing, as
sfc high pres north of the Great Lakes, helps to advect llvl 
cold air into our fa. As sfc low pres develops over the ms 
valley and moisture is lifted over the boundary, additional 
precip is anticipated late Sat Night into Sunday. The sfc 
evolution and associated fast confluent flow aloft, combined 
with multiple solutions offered by guidance, results plenty of 
uncertainty at this time for next weekend and potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Light snow continues to persist between
Saranac Lake and Burlington and is spreading east this morning.
This will continue to bring a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings to
the region through about 15Z when conditions are expected to
slowly improve. KSLK has the potential to remain MVFR all day
but the latest thinking is that they should break out in the mid
afternoon. Otherwise, a trend toward VFR ceilings will be seen
through the day with most places becoming VFR between 16Z and
18Z. North winds of about 10 knots will be common throughout 
the day but some gusty winds up to 20 knots can be expected at 
most terminals through the late afternoon hours. Winds will
lighten overnight and begin shifting to the southwest. The next
wave of snow will work into KSLK around 10Z Monday and
overspread the remaining terminals later Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Clay

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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March 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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April 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 1
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December 2003, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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