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SKIVT-L  January 2020, Week 1

SKIVT-L January 2020, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 1 Jan 2020 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (253 lines)

Expires:202001012100;;685502
FPUS51 KBTV 011134
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020


VTZ006-012100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
630 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020

.TODAY...Snow showers likely. Additional snow accumulation a
dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers until
midnight, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers
after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches
possible. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance
of snow 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs around
40. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in
the lower 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Rain or snow likely. Little or no snow accumulation.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of
snow 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the
mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Lows 10 to 15. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 15. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:202001011200;;685342
ASUS41 KBTV 011130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 01 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    32  28  85 SW6       29.49R WCI  26          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    29  23  78 SW6       29.48R WCI  23          
MORRISVILLE    FLURRIES  31  24  75 SW6       29.46R WCI  25          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     29  26  89 MISG      29.44R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    28  26  90 SW5       29.45R WCI  23          
RUTLAND*       FLURRIES  31  26  82 SW13G21   29.52S WCI  21          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    30  25  81 CALM      29.53S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    33  28  82 CALM      29.47R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    29  25  84 SW7       29.44R WCI  22          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    32  22  66 VRB5      29.56R WCI  27          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A W8          N/A  WCI  20          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     28 N/A N/A SW5         N/A  WCI  23          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  28  80 SW10        N/A  WCI  26          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A      1  -6  71 W10         N/A  WCI -14          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  32  93 S15         N/A  WCI  24          

$$


Expires:No;;685829
FXUS61 KBTV 011143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will become more concentrated in the mountains today.
The northern Adirondacks and portions of the central and northern 
Green Mountains will see 2 to 6 inches of snowfall by this evening. 
The next system impacts our region late Friday into Saturday with 
more mixed precipitation. Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend 
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 636 AM EST Wednesday...The forecast is pretty much on
track. Snow is starting to redevelop as the upper shortwave
approaches from the north. Lake effect snow is streaming
eastward from Lake Ontario, moving across the central
Adirondacks into Addison and Rutland Counties. Surface obs and
webcams show some light snow is falling in the latter areas, so
have increased PoPs to add mention of the chance of snow showers
today. Otherwise the forecast remains unchanged. 

Previous discussion...Happy New Year! We'll be starting the
new decade out with continuing snow showers in the mountains. The
upper low that brought yesterday's widespread showers and squalls
will continue to spin just north of the international border,
gradually shifting east today and tonight. A shortwave will rotate
around the back of the departing low later today, and this combined
with west flow will keep snow showers focused along the western
slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks through the day. An additional
1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is expected in the higher
terrain, with just a dusting at most elsewhere. Winds will be a bit
gusty today as well, particularly on the eastern sides of the higher
terrain, as we'll see good mixing given the cold pool aloft. Today's
highs will be in the lower to mid 30s.

Tonight and Thursday...The upper low will move east while surface
high pressure builds to our south. Winds will turn to the southwest,
resulting in warm air advection. In fact, temperatures will likely
hold steady or even rise slightly late tonight/early Thursday in the
St Lawrence Valley. Lingering snow showers will taper to an end
overnight, persisting longest in the Northeast Kingdom. The warm air
advection continues tomorrow, with just increasing clouds expected.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, with most topping out
in the mid 30s to around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 256 AM EST Wednesday...The short-term period will feature
a full-latitude trough across the central U.S., with broad mid-
level ridging across NY and New England. The southerly to swly
low to mid-level flow will result in above normal temperatures
Thursday night, especially from the Champlain Valley and points
west. Should see lows 30-35F from the Champlain Valley wwd, and
in the mid-upper 20s east of the Green Mtns. These forecast lows
are 15-20deg above climo means for early January. Boundary layer
winds will remain S-SW, locally 10-15 mph during the overnight 
period in the Champlain Valley. The persist S-SW flow will 
result in increasing moisture, with the 00Z GFS indicating PW 
values climbing to 0.7-0.8" during the daylight hours Friday. A 
modest northern stream trough approaches from the Great Lakes, 
but overall convergence and forcing is limited given 
anticyclonically curved mid-level flow. Indicated increasing 
clouds and 30-50% PoPs during the day Friday. With highs 
climbing into the lower 40s most areas (upper 30s far nern VT), 
thermal profiles support mainly rain with any precipitation that
falls on Friday. Kept QPF <0.10" given overall absence of 
strong forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 256 AM EST Wednesday...Eastward progression of full-
latitude trough Saturday/Sunday and eventually evolution and
development of surface low pressure of near the New England
coast will be the main features over interest for the long-term
forecast period. Continue to see substantial differences between
the 00Z ECMWF and GFS. The GFS holds onto the primary low
longer, and is overall a bit faster and further north and west,
bringing a low center across central New England on Saturday,
with secondary development Saturday night in the Gulf of Maine.
Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and further south with
the overall system evolution, with low pressure strengthening
south of Long Island during Saturday night. Leaned a bit closer
to the GFS, and consistent with previous official forecast. 
Indicated 60-70% PoPs for Saturday with thermal profiles 
supporting mainly rain early in the event. That said, should see
better chances for mixed wintry precipitation across the 
northern Adirondacks toward the St. Lawrence Valley given cooler
thermal profiles, and potential northerly low-level flow. Highs
on Saturday mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except 35-38F
across far nrn NY. Heading into Saturday night, both the 
GFS/ECMWF indicate cooling thermal profiles and falling snow 
levels, so there is a transition toward a period of accumulating
snow before precipitation/PoPs decrease below 30% during the 
day Sunday. Several inches of snow accumulation will be possible
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, especially across 
higher elevations as thermal profiles become more conducive for
snowfall. The ECMWF would support lower precipitation amounts 
on Saturday, but given consistency of GFS/CMC with previous 
forecasts, maintained continuity at this time. 

Drier and more seasonable conditions are expected early next
week, though weak northern stream shortwave troughs bring low
chances of snow showers for late Monday into Tuesday. Highs
for Monday and Tuesday still projected slightly above climo 
means, generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Main aviation concern will be mainly-
mountain snow showers with MVFR/localized IFR conditions
expected. KSLK will see the most persistent snow activity with
visibility 2-4sm. KMPV and KRUT may see a bit of light snow as
well, though don't anticipate significant reductions in
visibility. The greatest likelihood for reduced ceilings will 
be at KRUT, KMPV, KMSS & KSLK. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will 
persist. Winds will be west/southwest around 10 kt with 
isolated gusts upwards of 20kt this afternoon. They'll subside a
bit this evening, eventually becoming more southerly overnight. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Likely RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Hastings

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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