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SKIVT-L  January 2020, Week 1

SKIVT-L January 2020, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 4 Jan 2020 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (259 lines)

Expires:202001042100;;836300
FPUS51 KBTV 041058
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
555 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020


VTZ006-042100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
555 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 AM EST SUNDAY...

.TODAY...A chance of snow this morning, then snow this afternoon.
Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches.
Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
snow 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Additional snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible.
Highs in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Lows around 12. West winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.MONDAY...Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation possible.
Highs in the upper 20s. South winds around 10 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of
snow 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow likely. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the mid 30s. 

$$


Expires:202001041200;;837808
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT JAN 04 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    37  30  75 N3        29.75F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    34  32  92 CALM      29.75F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    35  30  82 CALM      29.75F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  32  96 MISG      29.74F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    33  32  97 CALM      29.74F FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    34  32  94 CALM      29.73F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  37  36  96 CALM      29.73F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  33  32  96 CALM      29.75S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    36  34  93 CALM      29.77S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    32  31  94 CALM      29.74F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  39  36  89 CALM      29.72F FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     37  32  81 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A      5   1  85 NE6         N/A  WCI  -6          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  34  81 N10         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;837506
FXUS61 KBTV 041122
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will overspread the North Country this morning as a low 
pressure system tracks to our south. Snow amounts through Sunday 
morning will range from 3-5 inches at most locations expect southern 
Vermont and the St. Lawrence Valley where 1-3 inches of snow will be 
possible. Temperatures will return to normal on Sunday following a 
cold front today with highs only climbing into the lower to mid 20s. 
This active period of weather will continue into next week with snow 
expected again on Monday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 337 AM EST Saturday...Early morning radar echoes are showing
precipitation spreading into central New York in advance of a low
pressure system tracking from the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic
region. This precipitation will begin to spread into southern
Vermont around sunrise this morning with rainfall expected at the
onset of precipitation. This rainfall will quickly mix with snow
during the morning hours but will take some time to transition to
plain snow as the significant push of cold air advection associated
with a cold front isn't expected until later this afternoon. As the
precipitation moves northward, it'll encounter a more favorable
environment for snowfall with weak cold air advection expected
throughout the day. Snow will be slow to accumulate as boundary
layer temperatures will be marginal during the first part of the day
as temperatures remain at or slightly above freezing. Nevertheless,
with snowfall expected from late this morning through the overnight
hours, it looks like snow accumulations between 3-5 inches will be
seen at many location except the southern Champlain Valley where 1-3
inches are expected due to the extended period of rain and snow mix.

There will be two separate "bursts" of snow today with the first one
occurring during the onset of the precipitation. High resolution
model soundings show strong vertical motion in a saturated DGZ which
should help support some wet and juicy flakes late this morning and
early this afternoon. Snow will then likely taper off a bit before
intensifying late tonight with a shortwave tracking through the
region. Snow ratios this morning will start off pretty wet at 10:1
or so but will gradually dry out to 15:1 by this evening. Higher
elevations should do very well with this event with 6-8 inches
possible at the highest peaks along the Green and Adirondack
Mountains.

Snowfall will be slow to taper off through the overnight hours as we
head into Sunday as enhanced lift from the aforementioned shortwave
couples with lingering moisture and upslope flow. An additional 1-2
inches of snowfall will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday
with snow showers largely tapering off by noon. Sunday will usher in
the return of near normal temperatures following the passage of the
cold front today with highs expected to range from the lower to mid
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM EST Saturday...A period of light snow is likely on 
Monday as ribbon of enhanced 850 to 700mb rh, along with
favorable region of 7h fgen and deformation band of lift is
moving from southwest to northeast across our fa. QPF associated
with this general waa lift will be light, as pws are hovering
btwn 0.25 and 0.33, but good news precip will be in the form of
snow. Progged 925mb temps start near -10c at 12z Monday and warm
btwn -4c and -6c, supporting highs mid/upper 20s mountains to
near 30f warmer valleys. Generally qpf will be a tenth of an
inch or less, with snowfall of a dusting to 2 inches possible.
Westerly 850mb winds of 30 to 35 knots will produce some
shadowing in the western cpv. NAM/GFS show some lingering mid
level moisture and favorable upslope flow for Monday Night, so
have continued chc pops for the mtns of NY into northern VT. An
additional light snow accumulation is possible as temps hold
mainly in the upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 309 AM EST Saturday...Active period of wx continues as
very fast and progressive mid/upper level pattern prevails acrs
the conus. A west to east orientation of a 140 to 160 knot jet
at 250mb, with limited north-south amplification will result in
systems every couple of days, but with only minor to moderate
impacts. Next system in the fast flow aloft arrives on Tues
night into Weds, with a general light to moderate snow event
expected. The trends have been for less development of sfc low
pres wit a faster/progressive solution, which results in less
qpf/snowfall for our fa. However, good news is thermal profiles
are cool enough to support another all snow event for our fa, 
which will help to build snow pack across our region. A period
of upslope snow on brisk northwest winds and moderate llvl caa
develops on Weds/Weds Night. GFS seems most aggressive with 
this scenario and given the lack of mid/upper level trof 
amplification and jet orientation, thinking this maybe a bit 
overdone. Have trended toward a more progressive ECMWF/UKMET 
solution, which shows a limited window for upslope snow. A brief
shot of seasonably cool air flows on brisk northwest flow late 
Weds into Thurs as progged 925mb temps cool btwn -16c and -18c. 
This caa will help squeeze out remaining moisture in the mtns 
with lingering snow showers continuing. Still some uncertainty 
on exact track and timing of sfc development for snowfall 
amounts at this time. By Thurs into Friday, heights increase 
again ahead of more pacific energy and moisture. This will 
result in warming temps with a chance for rain or snow showers 
by Friday. Overall, pattern will feature mainly above normal 
temps and precip for the next 7 to 10 days, as fast flow aloft 
prevails acrs the conus and arctic airmass stays locked up in 
central/northern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Rainfall has worked into KRUT during the
predawn hours and it should be another 2-3 hours before they
begin to mix some snow in with the rain. Elsewhere, dry
conditions prevail but that will change over the next few hours
as precipitation spreads northward. Snowfall is expected at the
remaining terminals by mid to late morning with IFR ceilings and
visibilities developing with the steady snowfall moving in.
These visibilities and ceilings will remain IFR to possibly LIFR
at times through 06Z when snow begins to taper off and ceilings
and visibilities begin to lift. Light and variable winds today
will switch to the northwest at 7 to 10 knots after midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST 
     Sunday for VTZ001>008-016>018.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST 
     Sunday for NYZ028>031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Clay

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 5
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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