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SKIVT-L  January 2020, Week 1

SKIVT-L January 2020, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 3 Jan 2020 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (256 lines)

Expires:202001032100;;785139
FPUS51 KBTV 031108
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
604 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020


VTZ006-032100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
604 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

.TODAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers this afternoon.
Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...A slight chance of rain showers until midnight. Mostly
cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper
20s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
20 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow or
rain likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to
2 inches possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows
in the lower 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow
80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Additional
light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Lows 10 to 15. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 20. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow.
Lows around 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in
the upper 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20. 

$$


Expires:202001031200;;786109
ASUS41 KBTV 031130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 03 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    40  29  64 S7        29.71F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      32  28  85 SE6       29.72F WCI  26          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    35  30  82 S6        29.70R WCI  30          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     34  30  85 MISG      29.71R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    33  29  86 CALM      29.72F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    38  29  70 CALM      29.74R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    41  29  62 CALM      29.73F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    29  28  96 CALM      29.75F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    41  32  71 S6        29.70S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    36  31  82 SE7       29.71S WCI  30          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      36  28  73 CALM      29.74F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     34 N/A N/A S3          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A W1          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  32  75 S13G18      N/A  WCI  32          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A      7   3  85 S16         N/A  WCI -11          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  32  75 S3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;786174
FXUS61 KBTV 031132
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
One more quiet day is on tap today across the North Country as we 
see highs climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s. A cold front will 
sweep across the region on Saturday and bring period of light to 
moderate snowfall Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The bulk of 
the snow will taper off by Sunday morning but upslope showers are 
expected to continue across the western slopes of the Green and 
Adirondack Mountains. Any lingering showers will dissipate by Sunday 
night. Additional chances for light snow continue into Monday and 
Tuesday as a weak occluded front is expected to push through the 
region. The active period of weather will likely continue into 
Wednesday with another system expected to track near the North 
Country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 327 AM EST Friday...A quiet albeit unseasonably warm day is on
tap for the North Country as we remain between a departing surface
low to our north and another system tracking off to our south.
Ridging will continue to nose into the region throughout the day
which should produce enough subsidence to keep any piddly shower
activity very isolated. Cloud cover will remain plentiful across the
region throughout the day as we continue to advect moisture
northward into the region and a subsidence inversion trapping this
moisture in the low to mid levels. Afternoon highs will warm into
the upper 30s to mid 40s under this thick blanket of cloud cover
which will be around 15 degrees above normal. Lows tonight won't
budge much with the absence of any radiational cooling and cold air
advection with lows only in the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Friday...Models are starting to come into much
better agreement with the evolution of the complicated system
expected to move across the region on Saturday. It now appears that
the northern and southern branches of the jet stream won't phase
until late Saturday night or even early Sunday morning. What does
this mean for us? The likelihood of a significant coastal system is
highly unlikely given the lack of support in the upper levels. With
all that being said, it still looks like a decent snowfall event for
the North Country as we head into Saturday afternoon. A mix of rain
and snow will move into southern Vermont and northward up the
Champlain Valley shortly after noon on Saturday with snow expected
to spread northward across northern New York and the rest of
Vermont. Any rain/snow mix over southern Vermont and the Champlain
Valley will change over to all snow pretty quickly as we get into a
decent cold advection regime behind a cold front pushing through the
region.

Snow ratios are a little tricky with this system as the moisture
advected northward should keep ratios near 10:1 during the early
onset of the snowfall. Decent large scale ascent in the DGZ supports
some moderate snow during the early to mid afternoon hours 
across much of the North Country but snow rates should taper as 
we head into the evening hours. As this happens, we will begin 
to see ratios approach 15:1 and ultimately 20:1 toward the end 
of the event as we begin to dry out. With all of that being 
said, we should see a good 2-4 inches of snow at most locations 
with 5-7 inches possible above 2000 ft along the spine of the 
Green Mountains and the northern Adirondacks.

The bulk of the snowfall will taper off during the overnight period
heading into Sunday. However, upslope snow will persist across the
western slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens through much
of the day on Sunday. This could yield an additional 1-2 inches of
snow across the favorable upslope locations with little to none
elsewhere. Temperatures will trend back toward seasonal normal 
with highs in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Friday...The extended period is looking pretty
active, the details are still a bit in question, as usual. We'll
start out with some light snow showers on Monday as an upper trough
digs down into Ontario/Quebec, while the surface low spins just
north of the international border. We'll first get some warm
advection snow Sunday night, becoming more widespread on Monday as
the low draws near. The flow will turn to the west-southwest,
resulting in lake effect snows across northern NY. This feature will
linger into Tuesday as the upper trough pivots across southern
Canada, though it should be noted the ECMWF is more progressive and
shunts the wave quickly eastward by Tuesday afternoon. A cold front
will cross the region on Tuesday, and there are still indications
that heavier snow showers may accompany its passage. It's the next
system for Tuesday night-Wednesday that will need to be watched
carefully. Guidance all indicates that an upper trough will dig in
behind Tuesday's system; the question is how much phasing occurs.
The GFS is the least aggressive, with little to no phasing and just
an open wave pushing across the region with a very weak surface low
moving very near the benchmark. The ECMWF meanwhile phases the
northern and southern streams, resulting in a closed circulation and
a 992mb low moving along the NH/ME coast. This snowier solution is
echoed by the CMC, as well as a few of the GEFS members. Regardless,
any precip that does fall will likley be snow. Have stayed with a
model blend for this time frame, especially for PoPs, which I kept
in the high chance category due to the extreme variance in
solutions. Needless to say, stay tuned for later forecasts as we
will be watching model trends closely with this system. After the
potential storm, we look to see cold high pressure Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Satellite shows widespread clouds across
the region. Current ceilings are mainly VFR, with MVFR at KSLK.
Additional moisture will stream up from the southwest through
the day, lowering ceilings to 1500-3000 ft this afternoon. KSLK
will eventually drop below 1000 ft toward evening. These
MVFR/local IFR ceilings will persist through the overnight 
hours. No precipitation is expected for the entire period and 
thus all sites will remain in the VFR category with respect to 
visibilities through the entire period. South to southwest winds
will remain less than 10 kts today, eventually turning to the
north and becoming less than 5 kts tonight. 


Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
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June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 4
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
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June 2002, Week 5
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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April 2000, Week 1
March 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 3
June 1999, Week 2
June 1999, Week 1
May 1999, Week 5
May 1999, Week 4
May 1999, Week 3
May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
April 1999, Week 5
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April 1999, Week 2
April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
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March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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February 1999, Week 2
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December 1998, Week 5
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