Expires:202003042100;;475436
FPUS51 KBTV 041121
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
617 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020


VTZ006-042100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
617 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

.TODAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Snow
accumulation a dusting to 1 inch possible. Breezy with highs in
the upper 30s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow or rain showers until
midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Total
snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Lows in the
upper 20s. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of snow showers in the
morning. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance
of snow 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Snow likely or a chance of rain. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. East winds around 10 mph.
Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow.
Lows around 10 above. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 15. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 40. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid 40s.
Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow and rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain and snow likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003041200;;475820
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED MAR 04 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    39  29  67 W10G21    29.43R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    37  28  70 W14G28    29.41R WCI  28          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    39  28  64 W12G18    29.38R WCI  32          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     39  29  67 MISG      29.32R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    36  30  80 W15G32    29.34R WCI  26          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    37  28  69 W6G16     29.47R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    38  25  59 W17G25    29.46R WCI  28          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    39  33  76 W12G20    29.42R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    35  31  88 W13G22    29.35R WCI  26          
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    38  26  62 W12G17    29.54R WCI  30          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A W10         N/A  WCI  28          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A SW12        N/A  WCI  27          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A W16         N/A  WCI  17          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     37  34  87 SW15G22     N/A  WCI  28          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  32  75 W14         N/A  WCI  31          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  32  70 SW22G29     N/A  WCI  31          

$$


Expires:No;;468821
FXUS61 KBTV 040853
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
353 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures to remain above normal today with scattered 
showers...mainly in the mountains. Gusty west to southwest winds
will exist today and many locations can expected gusts in the 30
to 40 mph range. The winds and showers taper off tonight and as
high pressure builds into the North Country on Thursday, dry 
weather will be the rule. High temperatures will once again be 
a few degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...As one area of precipitation lifts
out of northeast Vermont we are seeing the strong westerly flow
aloft develop over the area. This will lead to more orographic 
precipitation today, especially over the northern Adirondacks of
New York and north central and northeast Vermont. Temperatures 
will be cold enough in the mountains for snow showers, but 
amounts for today and tonight generally look to be two inches or
less. At the lower elevations temperatures will still be warm 
enough for rain showers as highs today will be in the upper 30s 
to lower 40s. Gusty winds have developed over the area early 
this morning and will only get stronger as the day progresses. 
This is in response to the increased depth of the dry adiabatic 
lapse later this morning and afternoon. This will help to 
produce wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range with some gusts to 
40 mph. Looking at 45 to 55 mph wind gusts at the highest 
elevations.

Winds will start to taper off tonight as lapse rates begin to
stabilize. We will still have some showers over the higher terrain
as flow aloft becomes more northwest as the night wears on. Lows
will generally be in the 20s to around 30.

Overall Thursday is looking on the dry side as high pressure builds
into the region. Above normal temperatures will continue with highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...An interesting forecast on tap for
Friday. Mainly quiet conditions are expected Thursday night 
with perhaps some precipitation near the International Border 
from a weak warm front. A surface low will progress eastward 
from the Great Lakes. Forecast depiction of the upper shortwave 
associated with it has trended towards a more vigorous and 
organized system, even occasionally closing of height contours 
to indicate an upper low. With a trend towards a more organized 
system, dynamics remain in tact as the surface reflection 
approaches Lake Ontario. Favorable upper diffluence will develop
as the longwave trough amplifies and becomes more neutrally 
tilted. We will be in the warm sector of the Great Lakes low, 
with temperatures steadily climbing into the mid 30s to lower 
40s. Cold front attached to the Great Lakes low will begin to 
cross into our region late Friday morning with areas of rain, 
snow, or a rain/snow mix.

Then the coastal low begins to develop east of the 40N 70W
benchmark, providing little direct impact to us. However, it will
absorb the Great Lakes low, and so it will devolve into areas of
light precipitation. Where the low tracks and timing discrepancies
for the frontal precipitation leaves some wiggle room for this
aspect of the forecast. Then, winds quickly switch out of the north
and any rain or rain/snow mix will transition to snow. The dry, cool
northerly winds will begin to push precipitation out of the region
late Friday. It is a fairly complex scenario, but fortunately, the
impacts are expected to be minimal regardless of how the first half
of the short-term plays out. Precipitation amounts are expected to
be roughly 0.10" or less, and thus, snowfall amounts are generally
2" or less, with the highest amounts over the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...Cold air advection will bring a 
short- lived period of cool conditions Friday night into 
Saturday. Winds will be pretty brisk as pressure gradients 
constrict as a result of the powerful offshore coastal low. 
Generally expect wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph with locally up to 
30 mph possible, especially along the Champlain Valley. The 
weekend forecast is dry as a broad upper level ridge begins to 
exert its influence. As the broad ridge crests over the area on 
Sunday night, can't rule out some light precipitation along the 
International Border from warm conveyor belt moisture associated
with a low out across the Central US streaming across the 
northern tier of the US.

Model spread begins to increase from here on out. This split flow
pattern continues to make predictability of the longer range
forecast challenging. There are a few discrepancies with the
translation of the low over the Central US towards the Ohio River
Valley and then New England. There are also differences with a
surface high across Canada, and how that impacts thermal profiles of
our area. At this time, it looks like Tuesday will have the greatest
chance of precipitation, but there could also be precipitation
lingering into the mid-week. Forecast currently reflects rain or
snow at this time and will be refined as more details become clear.
Nevertheless, above normal temperatures appear likely for much of
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Winds will be an issue today as strong
westerly flow aloft produces low level wind shear this morning.
Winds at 2000 feet will be in the 40 to 50 knot range with
surface winds eventually increasing later this morning with
gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range. Winds are not expected to
taper off until after 00z. Ceilings across northern New York
will be at or below 1000 feet through at least 12z before slowly
lifting through the remainder of the morning. Eventually they
will reach the MVFR and VFR categories this afternoon and
tonight. Locations in Vermont will generally be in the MVFR to
VFR range with respect to ceilings. Lingering showers today, 
especially in the mountains, may produce some MVFR visibilities,
but visibilities will mainly be in the VFR category for much of
the period. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Evenson

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