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SKIVT-L  March 2020, Week 1

SKIVT-L March 2020, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 6 Mar 2020 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (244 lines)

Expires:202003062100;;576526
FPUS51 KBTV 061053
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020


VTZ006-062100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
549 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers this afternoon.
Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Southeast
winds around 10 mph, becoming northeast this afternoon. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow showers until midnight,
then partly cloudy after midnight. Little or no snow
accumulation. Lows around 13. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 13. West winds
around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs
in the upper 40s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 20. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003061200;;578322
ASUS41 KBTV 061130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    31  25  78 NE6       30.02F WCI  25          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      23  21  92 CALM      30.05S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      26  23  88 CALM      30.05S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     27  23  85 MISG      30.03S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      25  23  92 CALM      30.04S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      28  24  86 NE3       30.00F                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      29  23  78 SE8       29.99F WCI  21          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      23  20  88 CALM      30.04S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    32  28  84 NE5       30.04F WCI  27          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      25  25  99 CALM      30.05R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      26  19  74 SE6       29.97R WCI  19          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     23 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     23 N/A N/A W10         N/A  WCI  12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  30  93 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  30  93 N8          N/A  WCI  25          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  28  80 N7          N/A  WCI  28          

$$


Expires:No;;578102
FXUS61 KBTV 061127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow returns Friday as a weak clipper low tracks 
through the North Country. Overall snowfall accumulations of an inch 
or less are expected. Below normal temperatures will follow this 
system on Saturday but we quickly warm well above normal for 
Sunday and Monday. The next weather system to impact the North 
Country will move through on Tuesday with widespread precipitation
possible. Continued off an on chances for precipitation will 
continue throughout the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 618 AM EST Friday...Clipper low is moving into far western
New York state with its stationary front positioned just to our
north, where much of the precipitation is streaming eastwards 
of the boundary. Some light snow briefly fell over Massena, NY
and Newport, but that has since lifted north of our area. Some
clearing has even made it into southern Vermont. Adjusted cloud
cover based on satellite data, and then also tweaked hourly
temperatures. Previous Discussion follows below - have a great
day!

Previous Discussion...

Decent jet structure in place and low-level convergence increases 
towards noon time as the system approaches. However, development of 
a coastal low and the intense cyclogenesis that it undergoes will 
rob the clipper of these dynamics. One can see the eastern branch of 
the upper jet just to out south diminish as the base of the upper 
trough meets up with the subtropical jet and rapid cyclogenesis 
begins offshore. The footprint of the clipper is quickly erased 
during the afternoon. Winds will shift out of the north and cold, 
dry air will begin advecting across the region. Before the wind 
shift, temperatures will be in the mid 30s to near 40, so anticipate 
some rain/snow mix initially, but after the winds shift, all should 
quickly change over to snow. Snow will favor the easterly slopes of 
the Adirondacks and Greens in the northeast flow where orographic 
support will make up for the rapidly diminishing synoptic scale 
forcing. On the whole, aside from the higher peaks, all areas should 
expect an 1" or less of snow. Most areas will only see a dusting.

Snow showers exit the region Friday night. Cold air advection should 
bring overnight lows into the teens to upper single digits. The 
brisk conditions will also make it a chilly Saturday morning. Given 
that the broader lake is unfrozen and the cooler air moving over the 
region, some clouds should stream downwind of the north winds off 
Lake Champlain. On the whole though, the region will be mostly 
clear. Highs on Saturday will top out around 30-35 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 AM EST Friday...Surface high pressure and ridging 
aloft then builds across the region for Saturday night into 
Sunday with quiet weather expected. Lows Saturday night 
generally in the 10 to 20 range with some variability, as 
suggested by blended MOS-based output. By Sunday temperatures 
moderate considerably with afternoon highs ranging through the 
40s. PoPs nil.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 307 AM EST Friday...A more active stretch of weather then
evolves across the northeast much of next week with several 
chances of rain and/or snow shower activity. After a very mild 
Monday (highs 45 to 55) the most impactful system in the 7 day 
forecast period arrives for Monday night into Tuesday as low 
pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes states. Some timing 
differences remain in the global solutions this morning, with 
the GFS maintaining it's faster idea in lieu of the slightly 
slower ECMWF and Canadian GEM which would delay things until 
Tuesday proper. Boundary layer temperatures appear mild enough 
such that a good portion of pcpn associated with this feature 
should occur in the form of rain, though some mixed snow/rain 
shower activity will be offered across the northern mountains 
Monday night should the faster GFS solution verify. Sounding 
profiles off this morning's GFS also suggest the potential of 
some light icing across the far northern SLV and Champlain 
Valley during this time frame as north/northeasterly drainage 
flow attempts to seep southward. However, given the 
aforementioned uncertainty in timing and the GFS's known cold 
biases have refrained from mentioning this potential until we 
can get within range of the higher-resolution models.

Thereafter, continued on and off chances of rain and/or rain/snow 
shower activity will be offered by the middle to later portions of 
next week as additional energy bundles eject northeastward from the 
Midwest/Ohio Valley region. Still a ways out to predict overall pcpn 
totals and p-type but at this point these systems appear rather 
uneventful. Daily highs to range through the 30s to around 40 with 
overnight lows in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions through 18Z, though
some localized IFR with 700ft agl ceilings possible at KMSS. 
Most areas currently light and variable, but 5 to 10 knot northeasterly
winds are beginning to take hold, and will continue to accelerate
and turn north to north-northwesterly. Ceilings gradually descending
to 1500-3500ft agl around 18Z-22Z. After 18Z, winds will be about
10 knot to 15 knots, along with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots at KRUT,
KMSS, and KPBG. Areas of snow will begin to develop in this time frame
as well and will be most likely between 20Z and 03Z Saturday. Snow
should be light, briefly dropping visibilities between 2SM and 
5SM. Aviation conditions begin to improve around 03Z-06Z with 
winds beginning to abate, snow showers ending, and clouds 
scattering out and lifting. Areas of clear skies reaching KMSS, 
KSLK, and KPBG towards 09Z and will continue south and east 
beyond 12Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Haynes

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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