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SKIVT-L  March 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L March 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 21 Mar 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (237 lines)

Expires:202003212000;;831668
FPUS51 KBTV 211048
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020


VTZ006-212000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
645 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 4 above. North winds 10 to
15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds around 10 mph
in the morning, becoming light and variable.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 16. Southeast winds 10 to
15 mph.
.MONDAY...Snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Highs in
the mid 30s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation
possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain showers likely. Lows in the lower
30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 40s.

$$


Expires:202003211100;;831279
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 26 14 60 N15 30.28R WCI 14
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 25 16 68 NW16G25 30.20R WCI 12
MORRISVILLE FLURRIES 26 16 65 NW10G22 30.22R WCI 16
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 28 17 63 MISG 30.15R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 25 14 65 W17G29 30.18R WCI 11
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 28 18 66 N13G23 30.24R WCI 17
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 29 21 72 NW10G21 30.19R WCI 20
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 33 17 51 NW14G23 30.16R WCI 23
HIGHGATE* FAIR 26 14 61 NW9 30.32R WCI 16
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 23 16 74 NW8G21 30.22R WCI 14
BENNINGTON FAIR 33 22 63 N9G25 30.17R WCI 25
ISLAND POND* N/A 23 N/A N/A NW10G24 N/A WCI 12
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 23 N/A N/A N3 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 12 N/A N/A N9 N/A WCI 0

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 27 18 69 NW14G26 N/A WCI 15
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 30 19 64 N25 N/A WCI 16
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 32 18 55 NW17G24 N/A WCI 21

$$


Expires:No;;824687
FXUS61 KBTV 210756
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the Great Lakes this morning will slowly
move across the Northeast this weekend providing clear and dry
conditions along with unseasonably cooler temperatures. A storm
system passing offshore will bring a light mix of rain and snow
Monday afternoon and night, with high pressure returning for
Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns again for Wednesday and Thursday,
with quieter conditions expected again on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...A welcomed period of quiet weather is on
tap for the North Country this weekend as high pressure currently
centered over the Great Lakes region will slowly track over the
Northeast. In the wake of an exiting cold front, low clouds are
lingering over much of the forecast area early this morning, but
satellite imagery loop shows the expected trend of clearing from
north to south over the next few hours with clear/sunny skies
expected by mid-morning. A few passing cirrus clouds across
central/northern portions of the area are likely this afternoon and
evening, then clear skies will rule again for Sunday.

After a warm day yesterday in the 60s, temperatures have fallen
abruptly this morning behind the cold front passage with expected
temps at sunrise only in the teens and 20s. Continued low level cold
air advection today will support highs only warming into 30s for
most areas, with some spot 40s possible in the lower Connecticut
River Valley. As high pressure centers overhead tonight, temps will
plummet well below freezing into the single digits to teens above,
while portions of the Adirondack and perhaps Northeast Kingdom see
some sub-zero values. Temps rebound nicely on Sunday, but won't
reach seasonal values with a light northerly flow continuing. Look
for highs once again in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure is expected to be
exiting ewd across Maine/New Brunswick Sunday night as a surface and
mid-level trough approach from the Ohio Valley region. This mid-
level trough ultimately results in stronger sfc cyclogenesis off the
Delmarva peninsula and southern NJ coast during the day Monday.
Differences in NWP guidance suite persist with the 00Z cycle on the
eventual track of this sfc low and how much precipitation spreads
northward into nrn NY and VT during the daylight hours Monday
through Monday night. The 00Z Canadian is the furthest north of the
deterministic runs, with the sfc low tracking thru Cape Cod and the
Islands between 06-12Z Tuesday. The 00Z ECMWF has similar timing,
but with the low remaining south of Nantucket Island. Meanwhile, the
00Z GFS low track passes south of the 40N/70W benchmark, keeping the
more significant precipitation south of our region. Model run-to-run
continuity has varied significantly, and thus difficult to resolve
some of these differences. Took a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
resulting in QPF of 0.25 to 0.35" across Essex County NY ewd across
s-central VT, with lesser totals to the north. Precipitation type is
also an issue, with marginal PBL temperatures in place Monday for
snowfall. Will probably see a rain/snow mix in the valleys, and
mostly snow at elevations above 1000-1500ft based on current
indications. Based on current indications, anticipate rain/snow
developing Monday afternoon from west-east across the region,
changing to mostly snow Monday night before precipitation quickly
exits the area during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Have indicated 3-
4" of snow accumulation across the higher terrain of Rutland/Windsor
counties of s-central VT, and across portions of Essex County NY.
Generally 1-3" elsewhere, except 1" or less across the St. Lawrence
Valley. Will need to monitor for better consensus, as a slight
northward shift could yield higher snowfall totals, especially
across the higher elevations of central and southern VT with
advisory criteria snowfall possible. High temperatures generally 33-
37F Monday, falling back to 30-32F for Monday night. Ridging, sfc
and aloft builds back overhead for Tuesday as low pressure quickly
exits south of the Canadian Maritimes. Should see highs in the low-
mid 40s for Tuesday afternoon with skies becoming partly to mostly
sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure maintains briefly drier
weather conditions Tuesday night with lows mainly in the mid-upper
20s under light wind conditions. Next shortwave trough approaching
from the srn Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley follows quickly. We
may see precipitation redeveloping Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night (PoPs 40-60%) across the North Country. Possibly
another rain/snow scenario with significant elevational dependence
on precipitation type given marginal PBL temperatures. The 00Z GFS
soln is warmer overall, and suggests mostly rain. However, the 00Z
ECMWF has trended colder and stronger with the sfc low, with
potential accumulating snowfall across our region Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, especially above 1000' elevation. The
00Z Canadian is different still, with less robust low pressure
development and less potential precipitation/snowfall. Have
indicated a chance of a rain/snow mix at this time pending better
model consensus. Highs on Wednesday generally in the lower 40s in
the valleys, followed by lows in the low-mid 30s for Wednesday
night. Highs in the mid-upr 40s to lower 50s are then expected
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Trend over the next few hours will continue
to be from MVFR to VFR with all sites VFR by 10Z and gusty NW
winds of 20-25kts continuing. After 12Z, skies trend to SKC
with just a few cirrus passing north in the afternoon. Winds
remain brisk at 8-12kts from the NNW, with some gusts up to
20kts persisting at KMPV through 18Z. Winds at all sites drop to
8kts or less after 22Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 3
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
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