Expires:202003192000;;723666
FPUS51 KBTV 191014
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
611 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020


VTZ006-192000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
611 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow this morning.
Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Rain after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...A slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain in the morning,
then showers in the afternoon. Breezy and much warmer with highs
in the lower 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
40 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Little or no snow accumulation. Breezy with lows in the lower
20s. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs around 30. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 10 above. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 20. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 40. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the
upper 40s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003191100;;724187
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    40  30  67 S14       30.34                   
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  34  30  85 S10       30.39R FOG     WCI  26  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    33  26  75 S5        30.35  WCI  29          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  25  75 MISG      30.36                   
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  34  24  66 SE9       30.38R WCI  27          
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      35  34  94 S5        30.35S WCI  31          
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW  34  33  96 SE8       30.36S FOG     WCI  27  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  32  31  96 CALM      30.40S VSB 1            
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    36  27  68 S5        30.33R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    30  23  75 CALM      30.35R                  
BENNINGTON     RAIN      36  32  85 E3        30.32                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A SW3         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A E15         N/A  WCI  15          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  32 100 S3          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  32  81 S23G29      N/A  WCI  26          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  36  93 S15         N/A  WCI  28          

$$


Expires:No;;723704
FXUS61 KBTV 191016
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving wave of low pressure tracking across southern New 
England will exit offshore this afternoon with any light rain and 
snow across southern Vermont ending by mid-morning. Dry but 
continued cloudy conditions follow for the remainder of the day with 
temperatures rising into the 40s and 50s. A stronger low pressure 
system passing northwest of the region will bring a period of 
moderate rain tonight, followed by much warmer temperatures in the 
60s, scattered to numerous showers, and gusty southwest winds on 
Friday. Colder and drier weather returns for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 AM EDT Thursday...Quick update to adjust PoPs as
precipitation made a little farther north than previous
anticipated. End timing of precip still looks on track for mid-
morning though, so no changes needed there.

.Previous Discussion...Overall looking at a pretty quiet day 
across the North Country today with the exception of a few hours
of light rain and snow across southern Vermont through mid-
morning as a weak wave of low pressure tracks across southern 
New England. Radar trends through the night have been towards 
less precipitation across Rutland and Windsor counties with the 
bulk passing south of the forecast area. Nevertheless, some 
light rain and snow is finally being reported at KRUT and with 
temperatures slightly cooler along and east of the Green 
Mountain spine expect some areas to see some light wet snow 
through sunrise with accumulations generally and inch or less. 
Thereafter for the remainder of the day, we'll be in- between 
systems with very weak ridging building in. No further 
precipitation expected with highs warming above normal into the 
50s in the wider valleys and low/mid 40s elsewhere.

For tonight, the general forecast remains on track as deepening low
pressure will move northwest into the Great Lakes and drag a warm
front through the forecast area. Good isentropic lift along the
boundary combined with a deep moisture fetch of PWATs around an inch
will support a period of moderate to locally heavy rain through
sunrise before the front lifts north of the border Friday morning.
Entrenched in the warm sector, precipitation will taper to scattered
showers Friday morning, with the focus shifting to a pre-frontal
trough passage in the afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a strong 925-
850mb jet of 40-60kts will usher in unseasonably warm temperatures
aloft, but this mornings guidance has mixed signals on whether the
atmosphere will be unstable enough to mix both the temps and winds
to the surface. In regard to the winds, it'll be gusty day for sure
from the Green Mountains westward, with gusts generally in the 25-35
mph range, but the previously forecast stronger channeled winds up
the St. Lawrence are looking less likely, maxing out more in the 35-
45 mph range now. Temps are tricky too with the GFS indicating
better mixing and 925mb temps of +13-15C, while the NAM is several
degrees cooler. Above normal temperatures are certainly on tap, but
just how warm is uncertain. Given this, I've stayed close to what
we've been highlighting the past few days and trended towards the
GFS with widespread highs in the 60s.

Finally along the pre-frontal trough passage, scattered to numerous
showers are still expected to develop from mid-day through the
afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to show the potential for some
organized convection with weak surface and elevated CAPE noted on
forecast soundings supporting the idea that a few rumbles of thunder
are possible. We'll have to keep an eye on the radar for sure as if
any convection can tap into the winds aloft, we could see some
stronger gusts realized at the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Thursday...Sharp cold front tracking NW-SE across
nrn NY and VT will bring strong low-level CAA to the region during
Friday night. Should see a few upslope snow showers before
sufficient drying occurs to result in partial clearing during the
pre-dawn hrs. A quick dusting to an inch of snow can't be ruled out
in orographically favored areas of the northern Adirondacks and
across the northern Green Mtns. Shouldn't be any significant impact
from the snowfall. However, the rapid drop in temperature overnight
will result in localized flash freeze of any areas of standing water
from Friday's rainfall. Accordingly, travelers should watch for a
few slick spots. Following the valley highs in the 60s on Friday,
Friday night's lows will range from the low-mid 20s in most areas,
and locally into the mid teens across the nrn Adirondacks. Winds
will remain gusty, generally NW 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph
possible with excellent downward mixing with steep lapse rates in
place.

Strong high pressure will be in control for both Saturday and Sunday
as sfc anticyclone crosses nrn Ontario into Quebec. N-NW wind speeds
will gradually diminish (10-20 mph Saturday, but 5-10 mph daylight
hours Sunday), but continued northerly flow will keep temperatures
below seasonal averages on Saturday (low-mid 30s) and near to
slightly below on Sunday (mid-upr 30s). Skies are expected to be
mostly clear throughout the weekend with PoPs NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Thursday...Significant differences in the 00Z NWP
model suite begin to appear late Monday into Monday night. In
particular, as shortwave trough moves rapidly ewd from the
Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, the 00Z ECMWF develops sfc low
pressure much closer to the NJ/southern New England coastline than
does the 00Z Canadian or 00Z GFS. The 00Z ECMWF soln suggests
accumulating snowfall across much of our region late Monday into
early Tuesday as surface low crosses near Cape Cod at 06Z Tuesday.
That said, the 00Z ECMWF exhibits much less run-to- run continuity in
comparison to the CMC/GFS, and is thus considered the outlier at
this point; the other models keep the sfc low and associated
precipitation much further south. At this time, have indicated
30-40% chance for rain/snow showers, with PoPs at a maximum 00-06Z
Tuesday. We'll continue to keep an eye on this potential system and
associated trends in NWP guidance. Appears conditions will trend
drier late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Next potential low pressure
system passing over or just west of the North Country Wednesday
night into Thursday has the potential to bring moderately strong
S-SE winds and periods of light to moderate rain to end the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Overall conditions for the next 24 hours
will feature mainly VFR across northern terminals, and VFR
trending to MVFR at KRUT and KMPV where light rain/snow will 
affect KRUT from 08-12Z reducing vsby to MVFR. After 12Z,
conditions remain persistent through the day with winds shifting
to the south/southeast at 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Lahiff

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