Expires:202003162000;;563407
FPUS51 KBTV 160801
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020


VTZ006-162000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
358 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable
winds, becoming south around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then mostly cloudy with
a chance of snow showers after midnight. Snow accumulation a
dusting to 1 inch possible. Lows in the upper 20s. South winds
15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow showers likely in the morning. Rain showers. Snow
accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 40s. South
winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers.
Lows in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 10 to 15. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:202003161100;;570099
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      17  11  77 N5        30.66R WCI  10          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      10   6  84 CALM      30.63R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       9   5  84 CALM      30.65R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     11   7  84 MISG      30.62R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       9   4  82 CALM      30.61S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      15   8  73 CALM      30.63S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      15   9  76 SE5       30.61R WCI   8          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      15   7  70 CALM      30.64R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      15   7  68 N3        30.68R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR       8   5  90 SW5       30.63R WCI  -1          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      15   6  67 CALM      30.58R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     -2 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      1 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A      7 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A NW14        N/A  WCI  -5          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     18  14  86 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23   5  46 N14         N/A  WCI  11          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     25  16  68 NW14        N/A  WCI  13          

$$


Expires:No;;565717
FXUS61 KBTV 160847
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
447 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures this morning will rebound nicely into the mid
30s to low 40s under mostly sunny skies. Clouds and winds will
increase tonight as our next system approaches from the west.
This fast- moving low pressure system will bring our next 
chance for precipitation, with a light mix of rain and snow 
showers late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Drier and 
cooler conditions return for Wednesday. The weather turns active
once again towards the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 437 AM EDT Monday...Overnight lows have been stubborn to truly
drop off this evening, with most locations in the upper single
digits to low teens, however a couple near zero readings have been
reported at the typical cold spots, including Saranac Lake. Adjusted
temperatures up slightly to account for this, but still should see
lows about 10 degrees below average this morning.

High pressure will continue to move eastward and into the Gulf of
Maine today as return southerly flow becomes established across the
North Country. Another day of dry weather is expected with weak
upper level ridging overhead. Should be a mostly sunny day despite
passing high clouds with high temperatures in the mid 30s to around
40. Increasing cloud cover and southerly winds associated with our
next frontal system will keep overnight lows from dropping
significantly, especially for the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys.
Generally speaking lows will be near freezing for the broad valleys
and low to mid 20s east of the Greens and across the northern
Adirondacks. This channeled southerly flow will persist throughout
the overnight hours and into Tuesday with winds sustained in the
10-15 kt range with gusts between 20-30 kt, highest over the broad
lake and northern Champlain Valley.

Surface low pressure will pass well to our north, over the Hudson
Bay, and along with it the best dynamics, however southern edge of
upper level shortwave and attendant sfc cold front sweep through
from west to east Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday morning will be
favorable for snow outside the St Lawrence Valley, and through early
Tuesday afternoon for the higher terrain and locales east of the
Greens. A period of light snow will be possible, but temperatures
warm into the 40s (outside the highest terrain) by mid afternoon and
change any wintry precipitation over to rain. Moisture is pretty
marginal with this system, PWATS around 0.50", therefore expecting
storm total QPF generally less than 0.25". 850mb SW jet around 50 kt
will lead to shadowing in the Champlain Valley where less than 0.10"
is expected. Storm total snow is equally as meager with a few tenths
of an inch expected below 2000ft. Above 2000ft, an inch or two may
be possible. Precip will end towards 00z as westerly winds advect
in cooler and drier air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Monday...Any lingering precip wl quickly end by
03z Weds as 1032mb high pres builds into our cwa. The anti-
cyclonic flow around this feature will result in cooling thermal
profiles and dry conditions on Weds. Progged 925mb temps drop
into the -6c to -8c range, supporting highs in the upper 20s to
upper 30s most locations, with a few lower 40s possible if
super-adiabatic mixing can occur, given the very dry llvls. 
Temps drop quickly on Weds night, but as clouds and winds 
increase ahead of our next temps, anticipate warming temps 
overnight into Thurs morning. This waa will be associated with a
period of precip late Weds Night into Thurs. Initially 925mb to
850mb layer is sub 0C supporting mainly snow, but southerly 
850mb jet of 35 to 40 knots, quickly warms column to support a 
mix of rain/snow by 18z Thurs. Some minor snow accumulation is 
likely, especially above 1000 feet early Thurs morning. Temps on
Weds night mainly upper teens to near 30s, coolest values NEK 
and warmest SLV and CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Monday...The extended will start out active but
end very quiet and chilly for next weekend. Mid/upper lvl ridge
acrs the se conus will expand northward on Thurs into Friday
ahead of our next system. This will result in strong llvl waa on
Thurs into Friday, as 925mb temps soar into the 13 to 15c range
by 18z Friday, while 850mb values are in the 10 to 12c range.
This thermal profiles with some llvl mixing, but clouds and
precip will support highs well into the 60s on Friday for most
locations. A sharp cold front with potent 5h energy will
interact with pw values approaching 1.0" to support a 2 to 4
hour window of moderate rainfall on Friday aftn/evening. Have
noted sfc based cape values in the 150 to 250 j/kg range acrs
our cwa, so a rumble or two of thunder is possible, but given
the low probability have no mention in fcst. Rainfall will range
from 0.25 to 0.75 in the heavier convective elements, given the
fast 500mb flow of 50 to 70 knots, precip fields should be very
progressive. Sounding profiles indicating some channeled flow is
possible, especially slv with sw to ne sfc to 850mb winds, with
bottom of the mixed layer supporting localized gusts 35 to 40
knot range. The potential for gusty south to southwest winds
will have to be watched as the event becomes closer. Otherwise,
sharp boundary quickly moves acrs our cwa on Friday evening with
rapidly falling temps on gusty west/northwest winds of 15 to 30
knots with some localized higher gusts. Progged 925mb temps drop
from -6c se cwa to -14c nw cwa by 12z Sat, supporting lows upper
teens to upper 20s from nw to se. Some lingering upslope snow
showers are possible Friday Night, but any accumulations will be
minor and mainly above 1500 feet. A cool and dry weekend is
anticipated with highs mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s and
lows teens to lower 20s. Given deep dry layer, anticipating
large diurnal swings in temps over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR throughout the period with just some
passing high cirrus clouds. Light and variable winds overnight
will trend S-SE at 5-10kts toward late morning/early afternoon.
At KMSS, winds during the day Monday will be locally E-NE at 
5-10kt. After 00z, LLWS will begin to impact northern NY
terminals as 30-35kt LLJ moves in ahead of our next frontal
system.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...LaRocca/Verasamy

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html