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SKIVT-L  March 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 22 Mar 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (237 lines)

Expires:202003222000;;874362
FPUS51 KBTV 220715
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
312 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020


VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
312 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds.
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows around 17. Light and variable winds,
becoming south around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after
midnight. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow in the
afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible.
Highs in the mid 30s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows in
the upper 20s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow
80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs in the
lower 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Highs in the
lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. Lows in
the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain showers or snow. Highs
in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow showers likely. Lows in the lower
30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Snow showers likely or a chance of rain showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows
in the mid 20s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in
the mid 40s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003221100;;882590
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      19   4  51 N6        30.69R WCI  11          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      14   1  56 N5        30.64R WCI   6          
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      14   5  67 CALM      30.66R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     16   2  54 MISG      30.63R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      12   2  63 NW3       30.63R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      15   8  75 CALM      30.66R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      16   9  74 CALM      30.62R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      20   4  50 N3        30.63R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      16   7  67 CALM      30.72R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      12   3  67 CALM      30.65R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      20   4  50 CALM      30.58R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      5 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     10 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      3 N/A N/A N8          N/A  WCI -10          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21   9  58 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23   7  50 NE14        N/A  WCI  11          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     25   9  50 N14         N/A  WCI  13          

$$


Expires:No;;875721
FXUS61 KBTV 220757
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure cresting over the North Country will provide another 
sunny but chilly day today, before a storm system passing offshore 
brings a mix of rain and snow Monday afternoon and night. High 
pressure returns for Tuesday, but is short-lived as additional rain 
and snow showers are likely Wednesday through Thursday. Quieter 
conditions are expected again on Friday but more unsettled weather 
is possible next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet conditions continue today and tonight
as high pressure currently centered over the southern Ontario/Quebec
border will slowly drift east to the Canadian Maritimes by Monday
morning. Light northerly flow persists today so despite full
sunshine temperatures will once again struggle to warm from morning
lows in the single digits and teens to afternoon highs in the
low/mid 30s. As the high shifts northeast of the region tonight, a
light southerly return flow will develop with mid/high clouds
increasing from southwest to northeast supporting a non-diurnal
temperature trend for most areas except the Northeast Kingdom. Lows
will generally occur through about midnight in the teens to low 20s
before slowly rising towards sunrise.

Monday begins dry but will be trending unsettled as a shortwave
trough entering into the Ohio Valley and developing coastal low
near the VA/NC border will begin to spread precipitation from 
southwest to northeast across the area from mid-day onward. 
Drier air place from exiting high pressure will likely delay the
onset of precip by several hours until the afternoon when the 
low levels can saturate enough to produce precipitation. By that
time the boundary layer will have warmed sufficiently with 
highs in the mid to upper 30s supporting mainly rain in the 
wider valleys, but a rain/snow mix appears likely mid-slope and 
all snow above 2000 feet with temps in the 20s. Snow levels 
begin to fall late in the day with a dusting north to 1-2 inches
south possible through sunset. Snow continues into Monday night
and additional accumulations are likely. More on that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...Snow continues across the North Country
into the first half of Monday night as deepening sfc low tracks ewd
passing between Cape Cod and the 40N/70W benchmark around 06Z
Tuesday. Snow is expected to be steadiest across s-central VT, and
modest cooling should result in any rain/snow mix across the lower
valleys changing to a period of all snow before ending from west-
east between 04-06Z. For the period 00-06Z Tuesday, looking for an
additional 1-3" of accumulation across Rutland/Windsor/Orange
counties, and generally 0.5-2" further north and west removed from
better deep-layer UVV. Owing to marginal PBL temperatures near
32-33F, snow-to-liquid ratios are expected in the 8:1 to 10:1 range.
Based on storm total snowfall amounts of 3-5" (which includes snow
accumulation prior to 00Z Tuesday), may eventually need a Winter
Weather Advisory for portions of s-central VT and perhaps wrn Essex
County NY. Could see winter travel impacts especially across the
higher elevation routes, including U.S. Route 4 across s-central VT.
Temperatures will not fall much Monday night with lows generally
29-32F across the North Country.

Low pressure and associated precipitation exits quickly ewd during
the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, with just a few lingering flurries or
snow showers across the higher summits. Ridging, sfc and aloft
builds back overhead on Tuesday with skies becoming partly to mostly
sunny by the afternoon hours. Should see valley high temps generally
in the mid 40s for Tuesday afternoon, and locally in the upper 40s in
the upper CT river valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure maintains briefly drier
weather conditions Tuesday night with lows mainly in the mid-upper
20s under light wind conditions. Should see increasing mid and high
clouds after midnight as next shortwave trough approaches from the
upper Ohio River Valley. As primary low tracks into wrn PA, better
consensus in 00Z GFS/ECMWF that a secondary low will develop off the
NJ coast during Wednesday afternoon before passing southeast of Cape
Cod Wednesday night. Consensus of ECMWF/Canadian/GFS is that heavier
precipitation slides south of our CWA. Included 40-50% PoPs for a
light rain/snow mix during Wednesday afternoon thru Wednesday night.
Some snow accumulation is possible, but should see a strong
elevational dependence in p-type and accumulations based on model
forecast soundings and marginal PBL temperatures. Highs on Wednesday
generally in the low-mid 40s in the valleys, followed by lows in the
low-mid 30s for Wednesday night.

A stronger zonal upper flow regime develops Thu-Fri and should
maintain additional chances of precipitation late in the week. The
00Z GFS indicates a fast moving shortwave trough bringing potential
rainfall Thursday night into early Friday. Official forecast leans
on this soln with PoPs 50-60% across the area Thursday night into
early Friday. High temperatures are expected in the upper 40s to
around 50F on Thursday, and generally in the mid-upper 40s for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR SKC/FEW250 is expected through the 
next 24 hours with winds less than 10kts mainly from the NNW.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
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