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SKIVT-L  March 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 27 Mar 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (235 lines)

Expires:202003272000;;133000
FPUS51 KBTV 270725
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020


VTZ006-272000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
323 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds around
10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs around 50. Light and variable winds. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain or a chance of freezing rain. Lows in the
mid 30s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain, breezy with highs in the lower 40s. Southeast
winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain, breezy with lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
rain near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 30 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003271100;;141039
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      37  31  78 E3        29.82R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    35  29  78 NW8       29.79R WCI  29          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    37  30  75 N10       29.78R WCI  30          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     38  30  73 MISG      29.73R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    35  31  87 W5        29.75R WCI  31          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      36  30  80 N6        29.81R WCI  31          
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    39  32  76 NW8       29.78R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      45  35  68 NW9       29.74R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    36  33  88 NW6       29.83R WCI  32          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    34  32  91 NW9       29.76R WCI  27          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    47  41  80 NW9       29.75R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     34 N/A N/A W5          N/A  WCI  30          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     34 N/A N/A E3          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A SW7         N/A  WCI  19          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     37  34  87 W9G15       N/A  WCI  31          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  32  75 NW13        N/A  WCI  32          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  34  81 N12         N/A  WCI  32          

$$


Expires:No;;132800
FXUS61 KBTV 270722
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns to the North Country today and persists
right through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly
above seasonal normals through Saturday as well. The pattern
will change starting Saturday night as low pressure slowly moves
across the region Sunday and Monday. Widespread precipitation is
expected during this time period...mainly in the form of
rain. Drier weather will return for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Friday...System that brought precipitation to
the area late in the day yesterday through early this morning 
has exited the region. There may still be a few light rain or 
mountain snow showers through about sunrise...then noticeable 
drying takes place and no precipitation is expected for the 
remainder of the day. Vertical depth of moisture is becoming 
rather limited and this will help to limit the amount of 
precipitation over the next few hours. As high surface high 
pressure builds into the region from the west areal coverage of 
clouds should also be decreasing. This will lead to more 
sunshine and high temperatures generally in the 40s to around 
50. The high settles in over the area tonight and looking at 
clear skies, light winds, and low temperatures ranging in the 
upper teens to upper 20s. The high moves slowly east on Saturday
and flow aloft slowly backs to the west as the day wears on. 
This will delay precipitation even further from approaching 
upstream trough. Thus have kept all of Saturday dry and with 
clouds increasing later in the day we are looking at a warmer 
day than today with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 AM EDT Friday...A stubborn high pressure system 
Saturday evening will act to slow down an approaching warm front
from the southwest. Ultimately, the high pressure will continue
sliding eastward which will allow for rainfall to overspread 
the North Country after midnight as we head into Sunday morning.
The timing for the onset of rainfall has once again been 
delayed due to this stubborn high pressure system with the onset
a good 3-6 hours slower than the previous forecast. One of the 
main forecast problems with this system will be precipitation 
type east of the Green Mountains. Based on the 00Z NAM and GFS 
thermal profiles, a combination of freezing rain and/or sleet 
now looks likely instead of the snow that we had been previously
advertising. A very strong warm nose starting off at around 
7000 ft will melt the snow that forms in the snow growth layer 
above 12,000 ft. The question will be the depth of the below 
freezing layer near the surface as models show a deep isothermal
layer beneath the warm nose. Should a more pronounced freezing 
layer occur, we'd likely see sleet as the hydrometeors refreeze 
while a shallower freezing layer would likely create freezing 
rain. Regardless of which scenario plays out, road temperatures 
will likely be just above freezing as sfc temps will likely be 
right around 30 degrees. This would limit any ice accumulations 
that may occur to elevated surfaces and not so much on roadways 
and sidewalks. Any sleet or freezing rain that occurs early 
Sunday morning could stick around for a while as we see recycled
Canadian air get trapped up along the Green Mountains and looks
like a pretty classic cold-air damming situation. Ice 
accumulations will likely range from a couple hundreths to a 
tenth of an inch with higher amounts possible above 2000 ft.

Precipitable water values and integrated water vapor transport still
look to be 2-3 standard deviations above normal based on the latest
NAEFS output which shows the system is anomalously wet but not
excessively wet where we would expect widespread flooding. Overall
rain totals haven't changed much with the newest guidance with
generally two-thirds of an inch to an inch and a quarter of rainfall
expected through the day on Monday. The main burst of rainfall is
expected from about sunrise on Sunday through the mid-afternoon
hours on Sunday. The rainfall will become more showery in nature
Sunday evening as the best forcing and moisture axis shifts eastward
over the Atlantic. There could be a chance for a rumble of thunder
or two late Sunday afternoon ahead of a pre-frontal trough but
mention has been omitted based on lack of confidence at this time.
Rainfall will continue to slowly taper off on Sunday night through
Monday but as a closed low passes overhead during the afternoon and
evening hours on Monday, we could see just enough cold air to
produce some elevational dependent snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Friday...By Tuesday morning, only a few 
lingering rain and snow showers will remain with the lack of any
appreciable moisture or forcing around. However, an unsettled 
weather pattern is expected to continue as we remain underneath 
the longwave trough the upcoming week. While no single day looks
to be a washout, no single day looks dry either. Chances for 
showers will continue through the period with temperatures 
hovering right around seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Areal coverage of precipitation rapidly
decreasing and not expecting any reductions to visibility for
the remainder of the period. The only exception to this will be
at KSLK where MVFR/IFR visibilities will exist through 12z due 
to fog. Otherwise look for ceilings in the 1000 to 3000 foot
range through 14z before clouds become scattered for the
remainder of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or
less through the period.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Evenson

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