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SKIVT-L  March 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 28 Mar 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (242 lines)

Expires:202003282000;;187563
FPUS51 KBTV 280828
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
425 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
425 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then mostly cloudy with
rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain, windy with highs in the lower 40s. Southeast
winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain, breezy with lows in the mid 30s. Southeast
winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY...Rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain showers or a chance of snow showers. Little
or no snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in
the lower 40s. Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in
the mid 40s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003281100;;192430
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      27  21  78 CALM      30.13R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      23  17  78 CALM      30.15R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      21  18  88 CALM      30.13R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     23  20  88 MISG      30.13R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      23  19  84 CALM      30.13R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      25  19  80 CALM      30.12S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      28  21  75 SE9       30.12R WCI  19          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      24  21  88 CALM      30.14R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      28  23  82 E5        30.13S WCI  23          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      21  20  94 CALM      30.14R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      27  22  81 CALM      30.09R                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     19 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A W14         N/A  WCI  17          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  30  93 S5          N/A  WCI  27          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  28  86 NW3         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  30  93 E1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;188744
FXUS61 KBTV 280858
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
458 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the North Country will bring another day of
dry weather, a good deal of sunshine, and above normal
temperatures. A noticeable change will take place tonight as
precipitation chances increase overnight as a warm front
approaches the area. A large upper level low pressure system
will then move slowly eastward out of the Great Lakes and into
the northeast United States Sunday and Monday. Thus you can
expect an extended period of wet weather across the entire area.
The majority of the precipitation will be in the form of rain,
but areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont could see some
freezing rain and snow Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Saturday...Expect a good start to the weekend 
with high pressure over the area today. There will be some 
increasing high clouds, but we should still see a good deal of 
sunshine and no precipitation is expected. Warmer 925 millibar 
temperatures today and a very dry air mass over the area 
suggests we should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Thus 
looking at highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Flow aloft begins to back to the southwest tonight in advance 
of a large upper level low pressure system moving into the Upper
Midwest. This will bring a warm front and deeper moisture into
the region and overnight precipitation should become widespread
over the area. Feel temperatures over much of the area will be
above freezing and thus expecting precipitation mainly in the
form of rain. Forecast soundings show pronounced warm nose
moving over the area, but areas east of the Greens will see
temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. The Northeast
Kingdom of Vermont will be the area most likely to see these
colder surface temperatures and thus the potential for some
freezing rain will exist. Where freezing rain will be most
noticeable will be across the mountaintops. With the warm
temperatures during the day today ground temperatures will warm
as well and this could actually limit impacts from any freezing
rain in the lower elevations. This is definitely not a classic
freezing rain pattern where cold air damming develops near the
surface. Temperatures will be hovering right around the freezing
mark. Will not issue an advisory at this time, however will
issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential for
freezing rain.

As mentioned earlier widespread precipitation will be across the
area on Sunday with most locations picking up a half to three
quarters of an inch of rain. This will lead to rises on area
rivers and streams. Snowpack is confined to the highest
elevations and thus additional runoff from snowmelt may not be
significant enough to cause flooding issues at this time.
However the situation will be monitored. Highs on Sunday will
range from the upper 30s to around 40 east of the Green
Mountains and in the mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday night and Monday will see 
the upper level low move right over the area. While there might 
be a few breaks in the precipitation sufficient dynamic support 
will exist for widespread showers across the entire area during 
this time period. Additional rainfall is expected during this 
time period with another quarter to half inch possible. This 
will lead to additional rises on area waterways. We start to 
lose the warm layer of air aloft on Monday and this will help to
bring snowmelt to an end, but will likely change some of the 
precipitation over to snow, especially over the higher terrain 
and east of the Greens for some minor snow accumulations. Highs 
on Monday will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Saturday...Showery weather is expected Monday 
night into Tuesday morning as a cold core upper level low 
situates across the North Country. With cold air advection 
noticeable in the mid and upper levels, any chances of mixed 
precipitation will be non- existent as thermal profiles will be 
either below freezing through the entire column or below 
freezing through the entire column except at the surface. This 
should yield generally elevational dependent snow showers with 
rainfall likely at the lower elevations. Precipitation rates 
during the time frame will be fairly light but we will hold onto
PWAT values near 0.5 inches. Any snow accumulations Monday 
night into Tuesday morning should be less than an inch and and 
snow that does fall will change over to rain Tuesday morning as 
temperatures warm above freezing.

The weather pattern becomes rather complicated this upcoming week as
we remain under a longwave trough with several reinforcing upper
level lows dropping out of Canada to help amplify the upper level
trough across the northeastern US. While no one particular day looks
to be dry, no one particular day looks to be a washout. With colder
air in the mid and upper levels, diurnally driven "instability"
showers look probable. We have included a lot of 30-40 percent PoPs
through the extended period to account for these diurnal showers.
Nevertheless, temperatures should hover right around seasonal
normals through the upcoming week with highs in the mid 40s to lower
50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions and light winds will 
prevail through the forecast package. Rainfall will begin to 
approach the North Country around 06Z and have included VCSH at 
KRUT, KMSS and KSLK but the bulk of the rainfall won't arrive 
until closer to 12Z. 

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Definite RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Clay

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