Expires:202005282000;;878403
FPUS51 KBTV 281020
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020
VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance
of rain 20 percent.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms
likely in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in
the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. Lows in the
lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Not as warm with highs in the lower 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s.
$$
Expires:202005281100;;878844
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 72 61 68 S12 30.10R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 67 61 81 S7 30.17R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 63 61 93 SW3 30.13R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 67 61 81 MISG 30.12R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 65 61 88 CALM 30.17R
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 69 62 78 S12G17 30.15R
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 64 64 100 SE3 30.17R
SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 62 60 93 VRB3 30.18R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 74 65 72 S7 30.10R
NEWPORT* FAIR 67 65 94 S5 30.14R
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 64 61 90 CALM 30.19R
ISLAND POND* N/A 66 N/A N/A SW6 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 59 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 61 N/A N/A SW1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 63 N/A N/A SW15 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 68 61 77 S10 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 64 59 82 S22 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 72 64 78 S10 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;878298
FXUS61 KBTV 281016
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm, but not recording breaking day is expected as
temperatures warm into the lower to middle 80s today. Rain
showers will move into northern New York Thursday night into
Friday morning, followed by the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with the passage of
the first of 2 cold fronts. A few storms will be capable of
strong, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. An additional
cold front on Saturday will bring the return of near normal to
slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and through the first
half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM EDT Thursday...Updated sky grids based on satellite
obs. Everything else is on track. Have a great day!
Previous Discussion...
Period of active weather will continue. A ridge axis connected
to the strong Bermuda High that helped create record-breaking
warmth will lift northeastward. Upper ridging is expected to
weaken throughout the day and intermittent clouds will keep us
from warming as dramatically as the last couple days. Still well
above normal with highs in the low 80s to mid 80s forecast. Not
anticipating scattered showers or storms like yesterday as mid-
level temperatures warm, resulting in poor lapse rates and
relative stability. Still, plenty of moisture in place, and we
should see some precipitation develop as the result of warm
advection during the evening hours associated with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Bertha. The bulk of the precipitation will
remain west of the St. Lawrence River, but portions of the St.
Lawrence River Valley could see a couple tenths with decreasing
amounts expected as you head east with little or no
precipitation across Vermont.
Overnight, precipitation will gradually taper off. Warm, muggy air
will remain in place, so low temperature forecasts are still in the
mid 60s to lower 70s across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Thursday... Watching the potential for severe
weather Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction
Center has much of Northern New York and western Vermont in a
slight risk category (Level 2 of 5). The most likely threat will
be strong, gusty winds. Additionally, we'll be monitoring the
potential for training cells that may result in localized minor
flash flooding.
Friday will be the muggiest day of the week as dewpoints climb into
the mid 60s. Temperatures should be relatively similar to Thursday,
perhaps a degree or two warmer. By late morning into the early
afternoon hours, anticipate convection to begin as surface based
CAPE quickly rises to 800-1500 J/kg. There could be some brief
capping that delays the onset of precipitation towards the mid-
afternoon, but think convection will get started earlier than later
due to terrain interactions and a developing prefrontal trough. The
first storms to pop for the day could produce locally heavy rain,
strong downdraft wind, and perhaps some small hail. Later in the
day, a digging trough will begin to approach the area and bulk shear
values are anticipated to increase. A meridionally-oriented jet will
develop and support additional convection. Combined with little
change in wind direction with height, we could be looking at
training convection from a sluggish cold front. These forcing
mechanisms and increasing 0-6km bulk shear of 35 to 40 knots
should also allow storms to begin to cluster and form transient
linear structures or mini bowing-segments. Warm cloud depths up
to 13000ft, PWATs upwards of 1.7", and 850mb winds of 35 knots
to our south providing moist inflow will play a role in where
the potential for training convection. Wherever the front and
speed convergence line up will be where the threat for locally
heavy precipitation is greatest. Based on the 00Z HREF, this
appears to be from Essex County, New York northeastwards to
Orleans County, Vermont. Antecedent dry conditions should
mitigate the threat to some degree, but probability of 1" in 3
hrs is greater than 70 percent for portions of our area. It will
be something to watch closely.
Around midnight, the first chunk of the piecemeal front will begin
to head eastwards and expect the severe threat and heavy rain threat
will begin to wane thereafter. Some elevated instability remains, so
a rumble of thunder could still take place as scattered showers
continue ahead of the wind shift to northwest, which will take place
later in the day. We will finally start to usher in cooler weather.
Forecast highs generally in the 70s and noticeably less muggy.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Thursday...Cold front #2 with the real push of
cooler, drier air moves through with the help of a shortwave
rotating around the bottom of the trough. There still will be enough
low level moisture and increasing lapse rates that can't rule out a
few showers will get rung out, especially in favored terrain. After
that...folks will need to put on sweatshirts as we go from 95
degrees yesterday (Wed) to Lows in the 30s/40s by Monday morning.
Well, it's been a crazy May with snow into the second week and then
the hottest May day on record on Wednesday.
Surface high pressure from Great Lakes slowly moves into area while
upper level trough steepens Monday which provide enough instability
for a sprinkle or two. Otherwise...high pressure in control through
Tuesday with building heights as upper trough shifts east and
Southern Plains Ridge attempts to build NNE but disturbances in
northern stream flow across Canada will likely dampen any heat ridge
for now. As the first disturbance moves through Tues ngt-
Wed...expect some rain showers.
Temps start cool in the upper 50s-L60s Sunday/Monday moderating into
the 60s/70 Tue/Wed. Lows in the 40s Sat Ngt...30s/40s Sun/Mon Ngts
and 40s/50 Tue Ngt.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Broad SW flow aloft and deep moisture with the remnants
of Bertha will bring high clouds for much of the day. After a
few hours of surface heating some building cumulus near summit
levels and eventually showers developing from NY by mid-late
afternoon and slowly moving east into VT largely ard/aft 00z
Fri. Vsby should be VFR except briefly MVFR in any heavier
downpours. SSW winds will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 20+
knots aft 15z.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
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