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SKIVT-L  June 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L June 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 23 Jun 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (286 lines)

Expires:202006232000;;717351
FPUS51 KBTV 230749
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020


VTZ006-232000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
346 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog this morning. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
until midnight, then showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall until midnight. Lows
in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the upper 70s. South winds around 10 mph, becoming southwest
in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Less humid with lows in the mid 50s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:202006231100;;724119
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    75  65  70 SE5       29.78S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    65  65 100 CALM      29.88S FOG              
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    64  63  96 CALM      29.83S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     66  65  96 MISG      29.82F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    67  66  95 CALM      29.87S FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      72  65  78 CALM      29.81S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     68  67  96 SE10      29.84S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    67  64  90 CALM      29.86R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      73  70  89 CALM      29.77S                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     66  63  90 CALM      29.84S                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     64 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     68 N/A N/A SW15        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  68  83 SE9         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     73  70  88 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  70  94 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;719071
FXUS61 KBTV 230815
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
415 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another hot and moderately humid day is expected today with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible. A few 
stronger cores are expected to produce gusty winds, small hail, 
heavy downpours and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. An
upper trough and associated cold front approaching from the
Great Lakes region will bring additional showers and a few
thunderstorms tonight into the day Wednesday. With passage of 
the cold front, will finally see temperatures trend downward 
closer to seasonal levels for late June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Muggy conditions prevail early this
morning across the North Country with temperatures generally in
the mid 60s, except 70-75F at 06Z across portions of the
Champlain Valley (and 74F at BTV). GOES-16 IR imagery reveals variable
mid-level cloudiness, an artifact of yesterday's isold 
thunderstorms (so-called "convective debris" clouds). These
clouds are mitigating radiative cooling somewhat early this 
morning. That said, still seeing some patchy fog in areas that 
received rainfall yesterday, including SLK, MPV, and the valleys
of central and eastern VT. 

Generally anticipate the convective debris clouds to diminish
toward daybreak. Latest RAP 850mb analysis indicates
temperatures 17-18C. With mostly sunny skies through the morning
hours, expect rapidly warming temperatures once again, and
should see highs in the upper 80s to 90-94F range in the
Champlain Valley. We remain on track for our 6th consecutive 
90+ degree day at BTV (see climate sections below). 

There are some modest changes in the synoptic environment today.
The 850mb ridge axis has pushed ewd toward coastal New England
as a slow moving mid-level trough translates ewd across the
Great Lakes region. This allows for modest mid-level height
falls across our region this afternoon, along with weakly
cyclonic flow aloft. Also noting that sfc-6km bulk shear
increases to 15-20kts. While not a dramatic increase, there is
some better potential for multicellular convective storms rather
than strictly short-lived "pulse" storms that have characterized
the past couple of days. Have shown PoPs 40-60% this afternoon
into early this evening, highest across the Adirondacks and near
the spine of the Green Mtns. Hot PBL temps combined with
dewpoints in the mid 60s should yield SBCAPE values of 1000-2000
J/kg. Given moderate CAPE, somewhat better shear, and better
expected storm coverage, continued to include gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy rainfall wording with any storms this afternoon
into early this evening. Should also see a bit stronger surface
winds today...generally S-SW at 10-15 mph, with a few gusts up
to 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley. 

Should see convective coverage briefly wane late this evening
with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. However, approaching
slow-moving shortwave trough then brings increasing PoPs late 
tonight into Wednesday morning as sfc cold front reaches the nrn
Adirondacks by 09Z and slowly tracks ewd across VT thru 18Z 
Wednesday. Timing of best large-scale forcing coincides with 
diurnal convective minimum. Overall, not expecting much of a 
severe tstm threat based on latest indications. However,  
showers with a few embedded tstms are expected late tonight and 
into the day Wednesday, providing some much needed rainfall to 
the North Country. Basin-averaged rainfall generally expected 
in the 0.25-0.50" range, but embedded tstms will yield localized
footprints of higher rainfall amts, perhaps exceeding 1" in a 
few spots. It appears the best threat for thunderstorms 
Wednesday will be across central/eastern VT given timing of cold
front and potential development of instability eastern sections
before front clears the CT River Valley. Low temperatures 
tonight generally 64-71F. On Wednesday, Will see a westerly wind
shift with highs in the mid-upper 70s across the northern 
Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley. Should still see highs in 
the low-mid 80s from the Champlain Valley ewd.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...By Wednesday night, the cold front will 
be well east of our forecast area, and a nose of relatively 
high surface pressure will have edged it's way into the North 
Country. During this time, a mid-level dry slot will be 
positioned across the area as well. Together, this will make for
clearing skies and dry conditions Wednesday evening through 
Thursday morning. Subsequently, Thursday morning low 
temperatures can be expected in the upper 50s/low 60s. By 
Thursday afternoon, the North Country will be positioned 
squarely under the upper level trough. As a result, there will 
be an increase in clouds, and temperatures will be relatively 
cooler under cold air advection with highs in the upper 70s/low 
80s. There is also a chance of showers Thursday 
afternoon/evening ahead of an approaching surface boundary, 
though forcing would be orographically induced under southwest 
flow. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...A weak surface boundary will traverse the
North Country Friday as the base of the upper level trough lifts
northeastward. As a result, there exists a chance of showers Friday
during the day. Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the
upper 70s/low 80s. A gradual warming trend will take place through
the weekend as flow aloft becomes southwesterly, with highs reaching
the low to mid 80s by the start of next week. There continues to be
chances for rain showers through the weekend as well with Saturday
looking most favorable attm. This is due to shortwave energy aloft
which may manifest in a surface low and associated warm front
situated across the North Country. This system will have the
potential to produce heavy rain with PWAT values in the 1.25"-1.75"
range. As we move into the start of next week, an upper level trough
will settle across Quebec, brining ongoing chances for showers and
cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR overnight with SCT-BKN100-150.
However, localized IFR fog is expected through 11Z at SLK and 
MPV. During the daylight hours, should see mainly VFR 
conditions. With peak daytime heating, scattered afternoon 
thunderstorms are expected. This could result in brief 
intervals of MVFR/IFR at the TAF sites associated with heavy 
rainfall. Additional showers and isold thunderstorms are
possible through Tuesday night as a cold front approaches from
the eastern Great Lakes region. Winds are light and variable 
early this morning. However, will see a bit more gradient flow 
today, with south winds increasing to 10-14kts, with gusts to 
20kt possible at BTV between 15-21Z. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures were set Monday (6/22) at KBTV, K1V4, 
KMSS, KPBG, and atop Mt. Mansfield. Please see Record Event 
Report for details. With valley temperatures again expected into
the lower 90s, here are the existing high temperature records 
for today (Tuesday):

Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
06-23  93|1975  90|1975  88|2003  92|1975  95|1983  89|1964

At KBTV, Monday (6/22) represented our 5th straight 90+ degree day. 
This sets the longest stretch of consecutive 90+ degree days in 
June. If BTV reaches 90 degrees again today, the stretch of 6
days of 90+ degrees will tie for the second longest on record.
Already for 2020, BTV has recorded eight 90 degree days through
Monday (6/22). Records at BTV date back to 1883.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Banacos
CLIMATE...Banacos

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September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
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November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
February 2006, Week 3
February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
January 2006, Week 5
January 2006, Week 4
January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
December 2005, Week 4
December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 4
November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
February 2004, Week 5
February 2004, Week 4
February 2004, Week 3
February 2004, Week 2
February 2004, Week 1
January 2004, Week 5
January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
January 2004, Week 2
January 2004, Week 1
December 2003, Week 5
December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
December 2003, Week 2
December 2003, Week 1
November 2003, Week 5
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November 2003, Week 3
November 2003, Week 2
November 2003, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 3
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May 2003, Week 1
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March 2003, Week 3
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February 2003, Week 3
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December 2002, Week 2
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November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
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July 2002, Week 2
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June 2002, Week 5
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June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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December 2001, Week 1
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November 2001, Week 1
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June 2001, Week 3
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June 2001, Week 1
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May 2001, Week 3
May 2001, Week 2
May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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