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SKIVT-L  June 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L June 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 22 Jun 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (260 lines)

Expires:202006222000;;156078
FPUS51 KBTV 220705
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020


VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
303 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight, then partly cloudy after midnight.
Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog in the morning. A
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in
the upper 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
40 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 80. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:202006221100;;164588
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    70  64  81 CALM      29.94R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       62  62 100 CALM      30.02S VSB 1/2          
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     62  60  93 CALM      29.97S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  62  90 MISG      29.97S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      64  63  96 CALM      30.01S FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      67  62  85 CALM      29.95S                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    65  63  93 SE9       29.98S                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    64  61  90 CALM      29.99S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      72  67  86 S3        29.92S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    63  60  90 CALM      29.98S                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     66 N/A N/A SW12        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  66  78 SE7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     72  68  88 SW5         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  68  88 SE3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;157769
FXUS61 KBTV 220749
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Near-record to record high temperatures are expected with 
moderate humidity levels today and Tuesday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly 
across the northern Adirondacks and across central Vermont. On 
Tuesday, scattered thunderstorm activity is expected as an 
upper-level trough approaches from the Great Lakes region. A few
strong to severe storms are possible. A cold front will bring a
gradually return to more seasonable temperatures for later in 
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 217 AM EDT Monday...The 850mb thermal ridge axis 
extending from w-central PA newd across NY and northern New 
England will hold firm over the next 24-48 hours, making it 
largely a persistence forecast across the North Country. We've 
reached 94F the past two days at BTV, and see no reason for 
anything different today and again on Tuesday, with 850mb temps 
holding near +18C within the thermal ridge. May see some daily 
temperature records set (see climate section below). Dewpoints 
will mix out into the lower 60s for the peak heating hours, 
generally keep heat index values below 95 degree threshold, but 
may need to reevaluate that for Tuesday with a bit stronger 
southerly flow and potential for a bit higher 2-m dewpoints in 
the mid 60s. 

The North Country remains wedged between a cut off low 
southeast of Cape Cod and a slow-moving trough across the 
western Great Lakes. Looking again at very weak wind fields 
below 500mb, with sfc-6km shear around 10kts. The mountains will
again act as an elevated heat source (max SBCAPEs of 1000-2000 
J/kg), producing isolated convective storms this afternoon into 
this evening with orographic forcing. May see some localized 
heavy downpours, but over very limited areas given pulse type 
convective environment. Max PoPs are just 20-30% in the Mtns, 
and expect generally dry and sunny conditions once again in the 
St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys.

Quiet and muggy conditions for tonight, with lows mainly 
65-71F. Could once again see some patchy dense nocturnal fog 
development, mainly in locations seeing any rainfall during the 
afternoon into the evening hours producing moist soil 
conditions. 

On Tuesday, modest increase in sfc-6km shear (20-25kts) as 
trough moves across the Great Lakes and we begin to see 
developing cyclonic flow across the North Country and slight 
700-500mb height falls. Should yield a somewhat better forcing 
environment for aftn/eve thunderstorms, and went with PoPs of 
30-50% (highest over the Adirondacks). With hot PBL conditions 
and dewpoints in the mid 60s, can't rule out a few strong to 
severe storms late Tuesday, with a few multicellular clusters 
possible organizing along convective outflow boundaries. 
Damaging winds associated with wet microbursts would be the 
primary severe threat, as freezing levels near 13kft will not be
conducive for much hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 348 AM EDT Monday...Surface cold front will begin to push
across our area Tuesday night, and continue across the north 
country on Wednesday. The cold frontal passage is not too ideal 
for convection to develop, but have still included mention of 
thunder, mainly in Northern New York Tuesday night, then across 
Vermont on Wednesday. With the overnight and early morning 
frontal passage, don't think any of the storms will get 
organized or become severe. Still some disagreement amongst the 
models at that timeframe, so with later timing of the front we 
could see better storms on Wed. Minimum temperatures Tuesday 
night will range through the 60s with some 70 degree readings in
the Champlain valley. Then high temperatures on Wednesday, 
which will occur early in the day across Vermont will range from
the lower 70s in the Dacks to lower 80s across Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 348 AM EDT Monday...It continues to look like a nice 
little pattern change for Wednesday night onwards, with more 
seasonable temperatures anticipated. Upper level low situated to
the north of the Great Lakes will be slow to exit the region. 
This will keep us in a pattern with more clouds and chances for 
showers than we have seen recently. Sometime Saturday the upper 
low and associated trough will finally kick through to our east.
Friday continues to look like the best chance for showers with 
base of upper trough crossing overhead. Additional shortwave 
energy crosses the area over the weekend behind departing upper 
trough, more showers and possibly thunderstorms are possible 
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Generally VFR conditions through the next
24hrs. Will see localized IFR fog thru 11Z at SLK, and brief 
intervals of fog or BR at MPV. During the daylight hours, isold 
thunderstorms are possible during the peak heating hours and 
into the evening. Similar to recent days, expect any 
thunderstorm activity to remain anchored to higher terrain areas
for the most part. Best chances for a thunderstorm at the TAF 
locations would be MPV and SLK generally 20-00Z. Light and 
variable winds trend south to southwest 5-8kts for the daylight 
hours, and then light and variable again tonight. 

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Scattered TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible through Tuesday. Here are the
existing high temperature records: 

Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
06-22  92|1921  89|1989  85|2012  91|1983  90|1983  93|1953
06-23  93|1975  90|1975  88|2003  92|1975  95|1983  89|1964

At KBTV, Sunday (6/21) represented our 4th straight 90+ degree
day. This ties for the longest stretch of consecutive 90+ 
degree days in June (13th-16th June 1983). We should break the
June record today, with a good chance of stretching the 90+ 
degree stretch to 6 on Tuesday. The longest stretch of 90+ 
degree days at KBTV is 8 set in August 1944. If we reach 6 days,
that will tie for the second longest stretch on record.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Banacos
CLIMATE...Banacos

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September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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August 2008, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 5
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October 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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