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SKIVT-L  June 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L June 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 27 Jun 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (227 lines)

Expires:202006272000;;925597
FPUS51 KBTV 270833
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
430 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020


VTZ006-272000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
430 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms
likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows around 60. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Numerous showers. Highs in the lower 70s. North winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows in the
upper 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows in
the upper 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs in the
mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows in
the upper 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:202006271100;;929977
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    69  49  48 S12       29.79F                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    55  52  89 CALM      29.87F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    55  52  89 CALM      29.82F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     55  52  89 MISG      29.83S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      54  51  91 CALM      29.86S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      58  53  81 CALM      29.83S                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    56  52  86 SE10      29.86S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     52  50  93 CALM      29.88R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      70  54  56 S5        29.77F                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    54  51  90 CALM      29.87S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A W24         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  55  60 S9G15       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     68  57  68 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  55  68 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;925297
FXUS61 KBTV 270829
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
429 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of shortwave disturbances aloft will bring a chance of
showers and possible thunder this afternoon and evening to the
North Country, though better chances for rain exist on Sunday. 
Pulse thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening, 
though no severe threat at this time. Overall, 0.25 to 0.50 
inches of rain are expected over the course of the weekend. 
Thereafter, periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms will 
continue next week with a trend towards above normal 
temperatures in the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Saturday...An approaching upper level shortwave will 
bring a chance of showers to the North Country this afternoon, 
though model guidance has continued to trend further south with 
the track of the surface reflection and accompanying warm front.
For such reasons, the best chances will be across southern 
Rutland and Windsor counties in Vermont between noon and 5pm 
today, with rainfall totaling less than one tenth of an inch 
during this time. Later this evening, additional chances for 
rain can be expected across northern portions of New York and 
Vermont as the primary surface low tracks eastward along the 
International Border, lifting the warm front along with it. 
Increased low level moisture will allow some instability to 
develop across portions of northern New York, and occasional 
rumbles of thunder are possible late tonight. 

Overall, Sunday now looks to be the better day for rain potential 
across the North Country with increased moisture and instability. In 
addition, a cold front will pass during the afternoon hours; the 
timing of which is favorable for convective development with diurnal 
heating increasing instability across the area. Shear, however, will 
be limited (<20 kts), so severe thunderstorm potential is limited. 
Still, scattered pulse storms are likely to develop, producing 0.10" 
to 0.25" of rain overall, with localized higher amounts. 
Showers/storms will begin early Sunday afternoon and continue 
through the evening.  

Temperatures for the weekend will remain near seasonal norms, with 
highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and lows in the upper 50s/low
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 424 AM EDT Saturday...Diurnally driven convection decreases in
areal coverage Sunday evening with loss of heating with mainly dry
conditions expected during the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts
will be less than a tenth of an inch. Lows will range in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. Relatively large upper low becomes established over
northern New England on Monday. Dynamic support will enhance
convective development and instability is also expected to become
sufficient for convective development as mid level lapse rates
steepen in response to upper low. Will use areal coverage
wording...scattered to numerous...to describe precipitation threat
on Monday. With more clouds and showers around highs will generally
be in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Saturday...Upper low moves very little Tuesday and
Wednesday. As a result the combination of dynamic support from the
upper low and instability from steeper mid level lapse rates will
produce diurnally driven showers. Highs will be in the 70s to around
80 both days and rainfall amounts each day could range in the tenth
to quarter inch range. Eventually the upper low will weaken and move
out of the area on Thursday and precipitation chances will decrease.
We will also see slightly warmer temperatures with highs at or
slightly above seasonal normals. There are some differences related
to how Friday unfolds with respect to upper ridge building into the
region. At this time most data points to the idea of northwest flow
aloft being reinforced over the area on Friday which may temper how
warm we actually get. As a result have kept highs in the lower to
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 00z
Sunday, thereafter MVFR cigs at MSS, SLK, and RUT. Mostly clear
skies overnight will give way to scattered clouds by afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming southerly
by morning at 5-10kts ahead of an approaching weather system. 
Bulk of precipitation will remain south of the region, but have 
included mention of VCSH at SLK and RUT around 15z. Northern 
terminals should remain mostly dry until after 00z when a 
secondary low pressure system will bring chances of showers at 
MSS, PBG, and BTV. Cigs will degrade to MVFR after 00z as well,
particularly at MSS, SLK, and RUT.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Hammond
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Hammond/LaRocca

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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