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SKIVT-L  June 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L June 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 24 Jun 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:202006242000;;767043
FPUS51 KBTV 240726
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020


VTZ006-242000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.TODAY...A slight chance of thunderstorms this morning. Showers
likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Less humid with lows in the mid 50s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 

$$


Expires:202006241100;;774935
ASUS41 KBTV 241030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  72  68  87 NW12      29.58R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  69  66  90 S3        29.66R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  69  67  93 CALM      29.61R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     68  67  96 MISG      29.61S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      68  65  90 S3        29.66S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    71  68  92 S6        29.60R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  71  70  96 SE7       29.64R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  69  67  93 CALM      29.66R                  
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      69  68  96 CALM      29.59R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    70  67  90 VRB3      29.65R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     68 N/A N/A N5          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     66 N/A N/A S16G28      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  66  88 W14G20      N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;769739
FXUS61 KBTV 240817
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
417 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving slowly eastward across northern New York 
and Vermont will bring scattered showers and a few embedded 
rumbles of thunder this morning. A tenth to quarter inch of rain
is generally expected. Clearing skies and lower humidity levels
develop this afternoon, along with gusty west to southwesterly 
winds. Temperatures much closer to seasonal levels for late June
are expected through the remainder of the week and through the 
weekend. The next chance for widespread rain and possible 
thunderstorms arrives with the next frontal system on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 259 AM EDT Wednesday...After 6 consecutive 90+ degree days
in many valley locations across the North Country, relief 
arrives today as a slow-moving cold front translates ewd across
the region this morning. RAP-based SPC mesoanalysis indicates 
PW values of 1.7-1.8" along the front across nrn NY, and 
observed 07Z dewpoints are generally in the 64-67F range. 
Despite favorable moisture, best deep-layer forcing is lifting 
well to our north across Quebec. As a result, NWP consensus 
basin- averaged precipitation amts generally expected 0.10 to 
0.25" with the frontal rain band this morning. Stayed close to 
this in the official forecast, but with potential embedded 
convective elements, some locally higher amts can't be ruled 
out. BTV has only seen 0.01" rainfall since June 11th, so any 
measurable precipitation is needed. 

The cold front itself clears the CT River Valley by 17-18Z,
which limits time window for daytime heating/destabilization in
advance of the boundary. Max CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or 
less across central/ern VT. Thus, while there may be some 
embedded rumbles of thunder with convective elements this 
morning, not anticipating any strong/severe storms. 

Should see ample afternoon sunshine with strong mid-level drying
noted in model forecast soundings. Should still see valley highs
in the 80-85F range as a result from the Champlain Valley ewd.
Earlier onset of low-level CAA should keep afternoon readings in
the 70s across nrn NY. Should also see dewpoints falling back 
into the 50s with good drying/low-level mixing and steep low- 
level lapse rates behind the front. SW gradient flow is 
moderately strong, and with the steep lapse-rates should see 
wind gusts 20-30 mph this afternoon, likely strongest with 
terrain channeling in the St. Lawrence Valley. 

Weak sfc ridge builds into the North Country tonight. This
feature should allow winds to abate, decreasing to 5-10 mph
overnight. Dewpoints should continue to fall into the upper 40s
and lower 50s, so it will feel noticeably drier. The drying and
some wind should also limit fog potential tonight, though 
very patchy fog development is possible in the most favored
valleys of central and eastern VT. Will see overnight lows in
the low-mid 50s. 

Deep-layer swly flow continues for Thursday. May see an isold
rain shower across the nrn Adirondacks, but generally a 
pleasant day with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 
80s and low dewpoints holding in the upper 40s to lower 50s. 
Winds generally SW at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Wednesday...The vertically stacked low located east
of James Bay will push eastward Thursday night through Friday night,
with embedded shortwave energy allowing for a slight chance of
showers, mainly Friday afternoon. Overall, showers will be light and
isolated with little in the way of forcing or instability. In
addition, steepening low level lapse rates will mix dry air aloft to
the surface, further limiting rain potential. On a different note,
said mixing will also produce wind gusts up to 20-25 mph during the
day Friday. Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer
than Thursday due to weak warm air advection, with highs in the
upper 70s/low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Wednesday...Saturday is shaping up to be the most
exciting day of the weekend weather wise. A quick moving shortwave
aloft will result in a deepening surface low across the Great Lakes,
which will make its way into the North Country sometime Saturday
morning. A warm front will accompany this surface low and will serve
as the focus for moderate to heavy rain showers. Models indicate a
decent plume of moisture with this feature (PWAT values greater than
1.5 inches), which paired with f-gen forcing, may result in locally
heavy rainfall. The biggest question is if and how quickly we can
destabilize, which will largely be influenced by the track of the
surface low and the timing of the warm frontal passage. In the event
that destabilization does occur, there exists the potential for
strong thunderstorms on Saturday. Contributing to this potential
will be the presence of significant low level wind shear due to
southeasterly surface winds combined with a strong southwesterly
850mb jet of 50-60 kts. Therefore, the threat of severe weather on
Saturday will continue to be monitored during the coming week.

The rest of the long term forecast period will be relatively quiet
in comparison. There will continue to be ongoing chances for rain
showers as an upper level trough remains situated across the
Northeast. This will also keep temperatures near seasonal norms,
with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and overnight lows in the upper
50s/low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A slow-moving cold front will bring periods
of -SHRA, HIR TRRN OBSCD, and intervals of MVFR ceilings and vsby
to the North Country through 13-14Z. Following FROPA, will see a
return to VFR conditions and clearing skies. South winds at 10-15kt
will shift SW 10-15kt following frontal passage later this 
morning. With good low- level mixing expected and pressure 
gradient remaining moderately strong, expecting SWLY afternoon 
gusts of around 20kt at BTV and gusts upward of 25-28kt at 
KMSS. Sustained wind speeds should settle back down to 5-10kts 
tonight with mostly clear/VFR conditions expected. Present
indications suggest there will be sufficient low-level drying
that nocturnal fog will be limited for tonight. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Banacos

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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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