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SKIVT-L  July 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 16 Jul 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (258 lines)

Expires:202007162000;;921098
FPUS51 KBTV 160652
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020


VTZ006-162000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
249 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in
the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers until midnight, then
showers after midnight. Lows around 60. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.FRIDAY...A chance of thunderstorms. Showers. Highs in the mid
70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 80s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 80. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:202007161100;;930500
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    72  61  68 S13       30.22R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    64  59  83 S8        30.33R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    67  60  78 S10       30.27S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     58  56  93 MISG      30.29R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      59  58  95 CALM      30.34R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    69  61  76 S3        30.27R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    66  62  87 SE12      30.28S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    65  57  75 SE3       30.32R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      71  62  72 S14       30.21R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    67  60  78 SE7       30.29S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     64 N/A N/A SW3         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A S10         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;922371
FXUS61 KBTV 160725
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
325 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure moving eastward into the Gulf of Maine 
will maintain mostly dry and warm conditions across the North 
Country today. Breezy south wind conditions will also develop as
a frontal system makes its way eastward across the Great Lakes 
region. This frontal system will bring widespread rainfall 
tonight into Friday morning, with a few embedded thunderstorms 
anticipated. Rainfall amounts of a half to three-quarters of an 
inch are possible, likely highest along the international 
border. The weekend will be drier and trend much warmer with 
higher humidity and heat indices. Valley heat indices in the mid
90s are expected Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 258 AM EDT Thursday...Ridge of high pressure along coastal
New England remains our controlling weather feature today.
GOES-16 10.3-3.9um product indicates widespread low stratus
across s-central and ern VT, which will be slow to mix out this
morning. However, with increasing southerly gradient flow, PBL
eventually mixes out bringing a period of partly to mostly sunny
conditions to the North Country into the afternoon hours.
Channeled flow in the Champlain Valley results in south winds
10-20 mph around BTV, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Have issued a
Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Champlain with sustained winds of 
15-25kt over the water. High temperatures this afternoon 
generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. 

Progressive mid-level shortwave trough brings increasing mid- 
level cloudiness later this afternoon across the St. Lawrence 
Valley and nrn Adirondacks, followed by potential for widespread
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms during the 
evening/overnight hours. Have indicated 70-90% PoPs shifting
from west to east across the forecast area, highest during the
pre-dawn hours Friday. Some continued indication in NAM/GFS model
soundings for a swly low-level jet of 40-45kt overnight at 
4-5kft, and this allows PW values to increase to 1.7-1.9". As 
such, could be some brief heavy rainfall with any embedded 
convective elements overnight. That said, MUCAPE values remain
around 500 J/kg, so severe threat remains low. All in all, mid-
level trough is progressive enough that we should avoid any 
flooding concerns, but generally looking at 0.5-0.75" basin-
averaged rainfall. Currently, appears highest rainfall will be 
across nrn areas, and this will bring much needed rainfall to 
the St. Lawrence Valley, where precipitation deficits remain 
large during the past 2-3 months. Lows tonight generally upper
50s to mid 60s, highest in the Champlain Valley as PBL remains
well-mixed (Champlain Valley winds hold 10-20 mph much of
tonight). 

Will see a gradual decrease in coverage of shower activity from
west to east during the day Friday. That said, daytime heating
may bring a renewed threat of thunderstorms, mainly central/ern
VT during the early-mid afternoon hours. Should see highs on
Friday from the mid-upper 70s across central/ern VT, near 80F in
the Champlain Valley, and 80-85F in the St. Lawrence Valley
where the best potential exists for prolonged sunshine on
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 258 AM EDT Thursday...A relatively warm Friday night due to
lingering low-level moisture. Clouds decreasing overnight with the
North Country waking up to 60s Saturday morning. For the afternoon,
it will be quiet, but bordering on hot for Saturday. Deep-layer
ridging and dry mid-level air will shift across the North Country
during the day. An inversion layer positioned 8000ft above sea
level. So not even elevated heating off terrain should produce
convection. We should still see some fair weather cumulus dot the
sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 258 AM EDT Thursday...Westerly flow aloft becomes more
southwesterly, allowing continued warming with muggier air in place.
With that, we should see better instability allowing for storms
along the high terrain, along with lee-side troughing that could
support convection from lake breeze interactions towards New York.
Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s as 925 hPa
temps climb up to 26 C. There could be a fly in the ointment. There
is a shortwave trough riding over the ridge Sunday, and some
guidance is suggesting convection that develops along the feature
Saturday evening might seep down into the North Country as opposed
to remaining north. Will continue to lean towards NBM output for the
time being.

Piecemeal frontal passage takes place Sunday night into Monday. The
nocturnal timing will not help us get the most out of the frontal
passage, but most should see at least some precipitation.
Afterwards, a longwave trough will nudge southwards over the Great
Lakes region. West to northwest mid-level flow should prevent moist
southerly flow from bringing oppressive heat back northwards and
with thicknesses should be lower overall. 925 hPa temps remain in
the upper teens Celsius. So it should still be seasonably warm 
(+2 to 4 F above normal), but nothing oppressive in sight for 
now. Anticipate a series of weak waves to ride confluent flow 
between the Bermuda High and the troughing centered over the 
Great Lakes, but there is some disagreement between global 
models on the finer details.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Areas of MVFR stratus will affect portions
of s-central/central/ern VT, including the RUT/MPV TAF locations
through 13Z this morning. Elsewhere, anticipate just scattered
cirrus with FEW-SCT250. A notable increase in southerly gradient
wind is expected this morning, and at BTV, should see winds
13G22KT for much of the daylight hours. An approaching frontal
system from the west will bring widespread showers tonight,
along with the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms.
Started prevailing -SHRA at KMSS at 00Z and at SLK at 02Z. 
Periods of MVFR conditions are expected with these showers.
Also, with a low-level jet in place, also included LLWS at 
SLK/MSS starting at 03Z tonight. 

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will increase to 15-25 knots this morning as
pressure gradient increases between a departing high pressure
system across the Gulf of Maine, and a frontal system across the
Great Lakes. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet by this afternoon,
likely highest across the northern portion of the broad lake. May
see a continuation 15-25 knot winds through much of tonight as
low pressure shifts eastward into northern New York. 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos

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July 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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