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SKIVT-L  July 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 15 Jul 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (225 lines)

Expires:202007152000;;871330
FPUS51 KBTV 150704
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020


VTZ006-152000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
301 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...Patchy fog this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in the mid
70s. Light and variable winds.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. East winds around
10 mph, becoming southeast after midnight.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds
10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid 70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 60s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

$$


Expires:202007151100;;879881
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 64 60 87 N7 30.18R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 62 62 100 CALM 30.23R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 60 58 92 N5 30.19R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 60 59 96 MISG 30.17R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 57 56 97 CALM 30.22R
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 62 60 96 CALM 30.18R
RUTLAND* FOG 58 58 100 SE3 30.18R VSB<1/4
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 64 61 90 CALM 30.18R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 59 56 90 CALM 30.18R
BENNINGTON FOG 58 56 93 MISG 30.17R VSB 1
ISLAND POND* N/A 57 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A W16 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;872597
FXUS61 KBTV 150738
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure brings partly to mostly sunny
conditions to the North Country today, along with seasonable
temperatures for mid July. A frontal system approaching from the
Great Lakes region will bring our next chance for precipitation,
mainly Thursday night into Friday. Will see a trend toward
hotter and more humid conditions over the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday...A relatively quiet near-term
forecast period is expected. Shortwave ridging over the eastern
Great Lakes region will build ewd across our region today and
tonight. Early morning temperatures are generally in the mid 50s
to lower 60s under mostly clear skies. With light winds and
yesterday's rainfall, we are seeing patchy fog in the typically
favored locations within the nrn Adirondack region and across
the valleys of central/ern VT. Expect the fog to dissipate
between 12-13Z with onset of diurnal heating cycle and better
PBL mixing. Temperatures should trend a few degrees warmer
today, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s
(forecast is 1-2F above MOS consensus, consistent with recent
bias correction). Continue to see in the HRRR and 00Z NAM3km
simulated reflectivity product potential for very isold showers
this afternoon associated with terrain forcing across the high
peaks of the Adirondacks and central/srn Green Mtns. Maintained
this idea in the official forecast, with PoPs around 20% over
the higher terrain, and <10% in the valleys. Daytime winds will
generally be light N-NW at 4-8 mph.

Dry weather continues tonight and through at least the first
half of the day Thursday. Lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s are
expected tonight under mainly clear skies. Developing southerly
gradient winds at 10-15 mph in the Champlain Valley after
midnight should help keep temperatures in the mid 60s. A
shortwave trough shifting eastward from the Great Lakes induces
mid-level height falls across nrn NY during the day Thursday.
Should see some increase in mid-level cloudiness as the day
progresses. While best large-scale forcing appears to shift
into the region from W-E during Thursday night, may see some
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western CWA
(30-50% across Franklin NY and St. Lawrence Counties after 21Z),
with a slight chance ewd into the Champlain Valley. With
limited SBCAPE (around 500 J/kg) and weak mid-level lapse rates,
any convective activity is not expected to become severe.
Should see daytime highs on Thursday 78-83F with moderate
humidity levels (2-m dewpoints 58-63F).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday...A surface boundary shifts into the
region overnight Thursday, but stalls across the region. Tightening
low-level pressure gradients will produces a southwesterly jet
around 35-40 kts, and we will be positioned at the nose of this
feature. A narrow 500 hPa trough pushes east behind the upper ridge
over the region, and the cyclonic vorticity advection it provides
should enhance upward motion. In combination with the low-level
speed convergence, any convection that develops on Thursday should
be able to propagate eastwards overnight. We could wake up to a few
rumbles of thunder to start our Friday morning. Temperatures then
rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies. The
theta E boundary should follow late Friday evening. While 35-40
knots of 0-6km shear will be present, only modest instability will
be present (500 J/kg). Storms will likely struggle with the shear
outweighing the modest instability, so the convective mode for the
day should be pulse convection, but any stronger storms that do
develop could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds before the
front clears out late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday...No major changes for the extended
forecast. Mostly dry conditions are expected for Saturday, though
warmer and somewhat humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Then hotter for Sunday as
southwesterly flow strengthens and 925 hPa temps climb to 26-27 C.
So it will shape up to be a warm day with upper 80s to mid 90s.
Dewpoints will also be higher making for a rather uncomfortable day
for New England, which will likely require heat headlines as we get
closer to the day. A prefrontal trough will swing through late in
the evening, which should help spark some afternoon/evening
convection. More widespread precipitation will take place Monday as
the cold front and the base of a longwave trough sink into our area.
Afterwards, conditions trend drier and somewhat cooler (though still
above seasonal norms).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...LIFR fog is anticipated at SLK/MPV
between 06-12Z this morning. May also see intervals of IFR fog
or low stratus at RUT, but anticipate those conditions being
less consistent there. Daylight hours will feature SCT-BKN050
with isold afternoon -SHRA possible across the higher summits of
the central/srn Greens and the Adirondacks. Winds generally
light N-NW at 4-6kt, except locally NE around 7kt at KMSS.
Winds becoming light southeast after sunset with SCT-BKN100-150
conditions prevailing across the North Country.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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