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SKIVT-L  July 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 19 Jul 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (260 lines)

Expires:202007192000;;082557
FPUS51 KBTV 191032
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020


VTZ006-192000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
629 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Hot with highs in the lower 90s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall until
midnight. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Heat index values in the mid
90s until midnight. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Highs
in the mid 80s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Not as warm with highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows
in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 

$$


Expires:202007191100;;082495
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    74  61  63 S8        29.89R                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    62  62 100 CALM      29.99R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    65  63  93 S6        29.92S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  64 100 MISG      29.91F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       63  62  97 CALM      29.97S VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      68  63  84 CALM      29.92S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     64  62  93 SE7       29.95F                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    60  59  96 CALM      29.96F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      74  62  64 S8        29.87S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      68  64  88 S6        29.93R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     61  58  90 CALM      29.97R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     61 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     66 N/A N/A SW22        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;079488
FXUS61 KBTV 190905
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
505 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather is expected with high temperatures in the 90s across
Vermont and Northern New York. Late this evening into the
overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms along a cold front 
will shift east. A few of these storms could produce locally 
heavy rain and brief, gusty winds, with the greatest chances 
across St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties of New York. After 
another warm day on Monday, temperatures become more seasonable 
Tuesday onward with the next best chance of showers and storms 
during the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 505 AM EDT Sunday...Heat advisories take effect from 11 AM
to 8 PM today across our region, excluding portions of the 
Adirondacks and Essex County Vermont. Several hours of heat 
indices above 95 are expected today, and could be as high as 
103. Keep cool and take necessary actions to stay healthy in the
heat.

Temperatures range from about 60 to 70 this morning, and have 
fallen quite well despite the high cirrus clouds streaming 
through the region. Precipitation remains north of our region 
associated with a shortwave progressing across Ontario and 
Quebec Provinces. A narrow upper shortwave ridge between this 
system and the next system will help us to clear out today and 
bring temperatures well above seasonal norms this afternoon. A 
push of strong warm advection will bring in a warmer and muggier
air mass than yesterday. We will have strong mixing potential 
this afternoon as winds aloft accelerate, allowing for a hot, 
breezy day. Temperatures will likely reach 90 by noon while 
dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 60s. Thereafter, while we
get warmer, the consequence of our strong mixing should bring 
several areas back down to lower 60s dewpoints and keep us from 
reaching excessive heat. However, temperatures will be in the 
mid to upper 90s across the lower valleys, with perhaps a spot 
100 or two and puts many daily records under threat. Given BTV 
has overperformed on so many of our hot days this year, 
accounting for recent dryness, and adiabatic downslope warming 
in the Champlain Valley, decided to bite and call for 100 F at 
BTV. It's a bit more likely than not that we just miss it 
(ensemble 90th percentile is at 99F for BTV) and incoming 00Z 
guidance on 925 hPa temps are about 0.5 to 1 C less than 
yesterday, but the potential exists. If it does reach 100, it 
would be the 5th such instance in BTV's period of record, with 
the last occurrence in July 1995.

By the end of the day, a sharp frontal boundary will cross into
the region late in the day (after 8 PM). Better low-level
convergence remains to the north, and 850mb winds begin to
broaden as the front enters our region. Additionally, we will
begin to lose our diurnal heating with poor lapse rates from a
mid-level inversion layer. That said, shear parameters are
35-40kts due to the strong flow with ample dry mid-level air
present. The greatest severe potential will be across Northern
New York, where the front arrives early enough that there still
remains about 1000 J/kg of CAPE and where inflow will be
maximized. However, as the front treks from the St. Lawrence
into the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, precipitation should
begin to fall apart as better dynamics lift north. The front 
exits the region Monday morning, but the wind shift where the 
cool air advection begins lies a bit further behind. Another 
above normal day will be in store, but not to the same level as 
Sunday, with most reaching mid 80s to near 90 in the lower 
valleys and lower 80s at higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Westerly flow aloft will prevail Monday
night into Tuesday. As a result...dry weather is expected along with
seasonal temperatures. Lows Monday night will be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s and highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...We will begin to see the transition to
southwest flow aloft Tuesday night and this pattern will persist
right through Thursday. Increasing moisture within this flow will
eventually lead to increased precipitation chances. Tuesday night
will be dry, but then looking at a chance of showers and some
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night. A shortwave trough
moving down from Canada on Thursday will bring renewed chances for
showers and storms. Will need to keep an eye on this system as deep
layer shear and a more noticeable front move into the region suggest
the potential for organized convection. Instability could be a
limiting factor. Showers and storms should come to an end Thursday
night as shortwave trough/cold front exit the area and drier
northwest flow aloft becomes established over the area on Friday.
Temperatures should be right around seasonal normals on Friday as
well. It is looking like we will stay in northwest flow aloft
Saturday and Sunday for temperatures at or slightly below seasonal
normals. There are indications of shortwave troughs moving through
the northwest flow that could bring some showers to the area over
the weekend and thus will carry slight chance/chance wording for
both days.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Conditions VFR outside transient 3SM fog at
KRUT, which should not last. From 08Z-12Z, faster low-level 
flow over northern New York necessitates WS due to west- 
southwest to west winds of 35 to 40 knots at 2000ft agl. Clouds
SCT to BKN at 5000-10000ft agl. Winds increase after sunrise. 
After 14Z, southwest winds will be 9-15kt sustained with 
18-25kt gusts possible until about 22Z. After 23Z, precipitation
approaches KMSS and KSLK from the west and reaches KPBG and 
KBTV around 03Z-06Z. Not expecting widespread coverage, so have 
mentioned VCSH. Turbulent winds are expected ahead of the front,
and will need to monitor for possible mention of wind shear 
again after 04Z Monday as the front comes across.


Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record to record high temperatures are possible on Sunday,
July 19th. Here are the current records.

Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV    SJBV1     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
07-19  98|2013  92|1991  95|1991  93|1991  95|2013  92|1946

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening 
     for VTZ001>003-005>012-016>019.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening 
     for NYZ026>028-031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...Banacos

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November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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March 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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April 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 1
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December 2003, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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