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SKIVT-L  July 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 21 Jul 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (221 lines)

Expires:202007212000;;179194
FPUS51 KBTV 210730
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020


VTZ006-212000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
328 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Not as warm with highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy.
Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance
of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid
with highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:202007211100;;186960
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    71  60  68 CALM      29.97R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    64  59  83 SE5       30.02R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    63  61  93 CALM      29.98R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     63  60  90 MISG      29.95R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    63  60  91 CALM      30.00R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      62  59  91 CALM      29.98R                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     62  59  90 SE8       29.99R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     60  57  89 CALM      29.98R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    69  60  74 N5        29.98R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    64  61  88 NW3       29.99R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     60  57  89 S3        30.00S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     66 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     63 N/A N/A SE1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A NW15        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;178824
FXUS61 KBTV 210717
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
317 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and provide the
North Country with a good deal of sunshine, no precipitation,
and temperatures right around seasonal normals. Moisture will
return to the region on Wednesday followed by a low pressure
system on Thursday. These two factors will increase
precipitation chances, especially Wednesday afternoon and
evening and again on Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday
and persists right through the weekend. As a result...dry
weather and seasonal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Tuesday...Westerly flow aloft will persist 
over the area today. This will allow an area of high pressure to
move into the region and bring dry weather to the area. There 
will be some clouds from time to time, but no precipitation. 
High temperatures will be right around seasonal normals with 
readings generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The flow aloft 
will slowly back to the southwest tonight and allow for moisture
to return to the region. Initially this will be in the form of 
clouds and then as a few showers across our southern areas 
shortly after sunrise. The better precipitation chances will 
come during the afternoon hours as moisture advection increases.
Composite analysis does not show the threat for organized 
convection. Best instability will be to our southwest, but could
see CAPE values around 500 J/kg across southern Vermont and 
portions of northern New York later in the day ahead of a weak 
surface boundary moving toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. Will 
mention a slight chance of thunder in these areas during the 
afternoon hours and keep the rest of the area as showers. 
Rainfall amounts on Wednesday should generally be a tenth to a 
quarter inch. Highs will once again be in the mid 70s to lower 
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 316 AM EDT Tuesday...Shower activity with a few embedded 
thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours on 
Wednesday into Thursday morning as we see a weak shortwave 
transit the region. Instability looks very meager and would 
remain elevated as the surface layer looks to be strongly 
capped. This may help to briefly increase the strength of a few 
showers and thunderstorms but the lack of any appreciable shear 
should prevent any sort of organized convection and just lead to
some light to moderate rainfall. A brief lull in shower 
activity is expected early Thursday morning but an increase in 
shower activity is expected during the late morning and 
afternoon hours on Thursday. A combination of increasing upper 
level diffluence and increasing CAPE profiles should support 
scattered to numerous showers with the possibility of a few 
embedded thunderstorms. Once again, the instability looks to be 
elevated and we aren't expecting any sort of gusty winds to be 
associated with any embedded thunderstorms. We will see the 
upper level trough axis swing through Thursday night which 
should be the last push of upper level support before we start 
to see our mid-level heights rise as we approach Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Tuesday...Drier weather will return to the 
North Country on Friday as a combination of drier Canadian air 
and increasing subsidence from mid- level height rises help 
quell our precipitation chances. This drier weather will 
continue into Saturday but should see cloud cover begin to 
increase across the region as a series of weak disturbances push
through the region along the eastern periphery of the upper 
level trough. This "dirty" ridge will allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to move into the region Sunday afternoon as a 
potent shortwave interacts with a high precipitable water air 
mass. This has the making of being a pretty decent soaker given 
the high precipitable water values but there is some 
disagreement in whether we get one push of rainfall or if it 
will come through piecemealed. Either way, by Sunday evening we 
should see some pretty widespread shower and thunderstorm 
activity across the region that'll clear around daybreak on 
Monday. Unsettled weather is in store for the first half of next
week as zonal flow aloft sets up and allows convection across 
the midwest to drift across New England. Through this time 
period, temperatures will be just a few degrees above seasonal 
normals with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Expect VFR conditions through the entire
period with any clouds mainly above 5000 feet. There could be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings at KSLK between 08z and 12z. No
precipitation is expected. Otherwise light winds at the start 
of the period will range from a northwest to northeast direction
after 12z at speeds of 10 knots or less before becoming light 
and variable after 00z.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Evenson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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