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SKIVT-L  July 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 17 Jul 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (267 lines)

Expires:202007172000;;971557
FPUS51 KBTV 170650
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
247 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020


VTZ006-172000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
247 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds, becoming
southwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. Warmer
with highs in the mid 80s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and
variable winds. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Hot with highs in the lower 90s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:202007171100;;980762
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    63  59  87 S15G25    30.03F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  60  57  89 S10G20    30.15F                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  61  59  93 CALM      30.09F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  57  89 MISG      30.12S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   HVY RAIN  58  56  92 SE12G18   30.16S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    61  60  95 S3        30.09F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  61  60  97 S9        30.14S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    61  57  87 S7        30.18S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    64  61  90 S13G21    29.99F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    63  52  67 SE8       30.14R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A S1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     59 N/A N/A SW5         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A S17         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;973372
FXUS61 KBTV 170738
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms across the North Country this
morning. Brief heavy downpours are possible, but average
rainfall amounts will range from a quarter to half inch in most
locations. Drier weather will return tonight and for Saturday, 
but with a noticeable trend toward warmer and more humid 
conditions. Highs on Saturday will generally range from 85 to 90
degrees, and then soar into the mid 90s on Sunday with heat 
index values in the upper 90s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence 
Valleys. A cold front will bring possible thunderstorms Sunday 
night, followed by a reprieve from the heat heading into the 
work week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 301 AM EDT Friday...We continue to monitor radar trends
early this morning as 850mb low tracks ewd across the Ottawa
valley and a sewd extending warm front tracks across the North
Country. While it appears best dynamics will pass north of the
intl border, still watching developing 40-50kt swly 850mb jet
across central NY which will drive ascent and strong moisture
advection across the North Country thru mid-morning today.
Though instability is limited (generally 500-1000 J/kg), the
RAP-based SPC Mesoanalysis does indicate PW values of 1.7-1.8"
across central/nrn NY. Therefore, despite scattered nature of
shower activity, do anticipate some locally heavy downpours as
best forcing moves thru mid-late this morning. This will also be
aided by warm cloud processes with high freezing levels of
12-13kft. Forecast maintains idea of likely PoPs (60-70%) this 
morning, and gradually decreasing this afternoon with trough 
passage. Overall, QPF amts are not significantly different from 
previous fcst. Generally expect 0.3-0.5", but may see a couple 
of locally higher amounts with thunderstorm activity. 

Channeled southerly flow remains in place across the Champlain
Valley, and continued with winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph
at times thru 16Z. Should see a SSWLY wind shift this afternoon
and a decrease in wind speeds areawide. 

Appears any lingering shower activity across central/ern VT 
will quickly end/move out early this evening, with good 
potential for clearing skies after 00Z. Dewpoints remain low-mid
60s, and with saturated soils in areas seeing rain, should set 
up good conditions for BR/FG development. Mentioned patchy dense
fog in some of our typically favored river valleys 05-12Z 
Saturday. Overnight low temperatures generally 62-67F, but 
locally in the upper 50s across VT's Northeast Kingdom. 

On Saturday, a rather broad 700-500mb ridge sets up from sern
Ontario ewd across NY and New England. Prevailing low-level swly
flow allows 850mb temperatures to rise to +15 to +17C, and with
mostly sunny conditions forecast, this supports highs 85-90F in
most valley sections, including 89F at MSS/BTV. Air mass appears
sufficiently capped, so did not mention any potential for
precipitation in the forecast for Saturday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 301 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night will be warm as increasing
southerly flow will keep most in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Sunday's
weather prognosis remains torrid. If anything, it appears hotter
with forecast models spitting out 925 hPa temps of 28-29 C.
Situational awareness tables from EC ensembles indicate 850 hPa max
temperatures outside a 30-yr model climatology as well. After
holding out some hope that a convectively induced shortwave might
creep south, the odds are looking slimmer by the day. Have nudged
high temperatures upwards for this update into the 89-97 range. A
few daily records will thus be under threat. See the climate section
below for additional info.

With only a weak cap around 3000ft-4000ft above sea level and a lee-
side trough developing, still anticipate some showers and storms to
grow over the typical mountains areas like Lyon Mountain and
Whiteface. With the westerly 30-40 kt mid-level flow, these isolated
cells should move off the summits and decay as they hit the cooler,
stable air over Lake Champlain. A sharp frontal boundary will begin
to approach the west late in the day, reaching New York by day's end.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 301 AM EDT Friday...An impressive cold front progresses
overnight Sunday into early Monday. Despite the front's passage at
the nadir of convective instability, good height falls, 35-40 kts of
0-6km shear, and sharp theta e boundary should allow for a semi-
organized band of showers and embedded thunder overnight. There
could be some locally heavy rain, given PWATs around 2.00".

Mostly dry weather is expected Tuesday. While there is a trailing
shortwave in a favorable jet environment, think that the drier air
behind Monday's front will preclude any precipitation coming out of
this. A longwave trough slowly translates eastwards for the middle
of the week while a Bermuda High sets up. This points to a good
soaker either Wednesday or Thursday, with timing and location
details still being sussed out. The first half of the next weekend
looks to be rather pleasant as surface high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...A mid-level trough shifting eastward 
from southeastern Ontario will bring scattered showers with a 
few embedded thunderstorms, mainly between 09-16Z this morning. 
Will see developing periods of MVFR conditions as well, before 
ceilings and vsby conditions improve this afternoon in the wake 
of the trough and associated precipitation. Winds will continue 
moderately strong as well, especially at BTV where southerly 
gusts to 25kt are expected through 16Z. Will see a gradual 
shift in winds W-SW mid-late afternoon. LLWS will also be a 
concern early this morning as a strong low-level jet moves 
overhead. Included mention in the TAFs at RUT/SLK 09-14Z. As 
winds settle down and partial clearing takes place tonight, 
anticipate areas of developing BR/FG, especially after 05Z 
Saturday. 

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will remain 15-25 knot range through this morning
with moderately strong pressure gradient in place. Waves will
briefly reach 3 to 5 feet, highest across the northern portion
of the broad lake this morning. Winds and waves will gradually
settle down this afternoon as winds shift southwesterly and
decrease slightly to 10 to 20 knots. Waves will gradually 
subside to 1-3 feet this afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record to record high temperatures are possible on Sunday,
July 19th. Here are the current records for July 19th:

Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV    SJBV1     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
07-19  98|2013  92|1991  95|1991  93|1991  95|2013  92|1946

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos
CLIMATE...Banacos

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November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
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November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
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August 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 1
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February 2000, Week 4
February 2000, Week 3
February 2000, Week 2
February 2000, Week 1
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January 2000, Week 3
January 2000, Week 2
January 2000, Week 1
December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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