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August 2020, Week 3

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Tue, 18 Aug 2020 06:50:03 -0400
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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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Expires:202008182000;;430053
FPUS51 KBTV 181019
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020


VTZ006-182000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. A slight chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Light
and variable winds, becoming west around 10 mph this afternoon.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms until midnight. Patchy dense fog after
midnight. Lows around 50. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance
of rain 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Partly sunny with a
20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:202008181100;;430517
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    63  60  90 CALM      29.78S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    58  58 100 CALM      29.84S                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       61  59  93 CALM      29.79S VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  58  92 MISG      29.78F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       57  57  97 CALM      29.82S VSB 3/4          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    59  59 100 CALM      29.82R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  60  59  96 CALM      29.81R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    62  59  90 CALM      29.78R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    57  55  94 CALM      29.80S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    64  57  78 SW3       29.84R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     57 N/A N/A NW1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A W17         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  63  88 S9          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     68  63  83 SW13        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  63  94 S5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;421721
FXUS61 KBTV 180707
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front will cross the area today with scattered 
showers and a few storms. Mainly dry weather returns for tonight
through the remainder of the work week as surface high pressure
builds across the region. The next chance of significant 
precipitation occurs by next weekend with the approach of 
another frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 247 AM EDT Tuesday...An occluded boundary remains draped 
across the area early this morning with scattered showers and 
isolated storms ongoing. Expect this activity to continue 
through sunrise, though generally wane in areal coverage as the 
boundary edges eastward.

In terms of the forecast for today the overall thinking hasn't 
appreciably changed to any large extent. We remain embedded within 
broad cyclonic upper flow at the base of an atypically large 
longwave trough by mid-August standards. Another, fairly decent 
vorticity center and associated surface trough embedded within this 
flow will swing through the area this afternoon with a gradual 
reblossoming of scattered showers and a few storms. Activity should 
be most focused across central and northern counties where better 
low level moisture convergence will be present, but given at least 
some modest instability and deep layer shear area wide I can't rule 
out a shower or storm anywhere. Organized strong to severe wx is not 
expected. High temperatures should be quite similar to yesterday, 
ranging mainly through the 70s.

Lingering showers then taper off this evening as surface trough 
pushes east, leaving largely dry conditions for the overnight hours. 
Patchy fog in favored river valleys/hollows of eastern VT and the 
Adirondacks will also be a good bet as temperatures fall to 
pleasantly cool values from 45 to 55 or so.

A final lobe of vorticity associated with departing upper trough 
then swings through the area on Wednesday. Drier air will be more 
abundant aloft so most areas should remain dry outside of the far 
northern mountains where a scattered sprinkle or light shower will 
be possible during the afternoon. High temperatures ease back a tad 
more with values peaking by late afternoon from the upper 60s to mid 
70s under partly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 304 AM EDT Tuesday...Base of the upper trough finally swings
across Wednesday night with remaining PoPs tapering off and
gradually clearing skies. Surface high pressure does not reach our
region until later in the morning, so some light winds will keep us
from perfectly radiating out. Still, a cool air mass will be in
place, bringing lows to lower 50s in the valleys and lower to mid
40s across the Adirondacks and Greens. A perfect late summer day for
the North Country on Thursday with light winds and highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 304 AM EDT Tuesday...We remain under the influence of a
gradually deamplifying longwave trough with west-northwest to
northwest flow aloft. The question will be how far south weak
perturbations embedded within the upper trough reach and how much
moisture will be associated with them. Still think Friday should be
mostly dry with confluent upper flow, but a few areas along the
International Border could see a shower as a low-level trough pushes
east across Quebec Province. We moderate into the upper 70s to mid
80s on Friday as southwesterly flow advects some warmer air into the
region. Saturday should also be fairly dry, but a similar scenario
should unfold with a weaker shortwave passing a bit further south in
Quebec Province. This means scattered showers possible mainly along
the International Border, but one or two could stray further south
into the Adirondacks or central Vermont.

As we head into Sunday, surface high drifts eastward and a broad
region of lower pressure takes its place while an upper shortwave
traverses the Great Lakes region. Looks like better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as better moisture
filters into our region while another shortwave passing south of us.
How these features interact, the orientation of the trough, and
where the best forcing is are all fairly different between various
synoptic models and runs. 0-6km bulk shear will be increasing to 20-
25 knots ahead of this feature with 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. The
question will be whether we have sufficient dynamical forcing to
work to produce stronger convection. It looks like some 
activity will linger into Monday before drying out for next 
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the forecast period. 
Scattered showers to continue moving east across the area 
through 12Z with weak surface front in the vicinity. Some 
patchy MVFR/IFR possible in br and/or low stratus at KMPV. 
Coverage of showers to lessen over time so many terminals to 
remain dry during this period. Scattered showers and a few 
storms reblossom after 16Z so VCSH offered at most terminals in
the 18-00Z time frame after which coverage wanes. Winds 
generally light and variable through 12Z, trending 
west/southwesterly 4-8 kts from 12-18Z, then west to 
northwesterly 6-10 kts thereafter as front clears east.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...JMG

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