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SKIVT-L  August 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L August 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 26 Aug 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:202008262000;;823635
FPUS51 KBTV 260731
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020


VTZ006-262000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
329 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Lows in
the mid 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy. A
50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. Light and
variable winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. West winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. 

$$


Expires:202008261100;;831111
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    55  44  66 NW9       29.95R                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    51  44  77 NW15      29.95R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    54  43  66 VRB6      29.94R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  43  66 MISG      29.88R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      50  42  73 W9        29.92R                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     53  44  71 NW8       29.94R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     52  43  71 W3        29.91R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      50  44  81 CALM      29.95R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    50  41  71 W8G16     29.93R                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    55  45  68 VRB3      29.94R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     52 N/A N/A NW8         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     50 N/A N/A W3          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A NW38G49     N/A  WCI  29          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  48  72 W7G16       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  45  62 NW23        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  45  62 NW13        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;826155
FXUS61 KBTV 260820
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool fall like day is in store for the North Country today
with temperatures in the 60s to near 70 and dry conditions.
Clouds increase again tonight with areas of showers arriving by
Thursday, especially across northern New York into parts of
central and southern Vermont. A rumble or two of thunder is
possible across our southern sections. Another dry day is
anticipated on Friday, before more rain arrives on Saturday.
Temperatures generally on the cooler side of normal with highs
mid 60s to mid 70s and lows mid 40s to mid 50s through the
period. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Wednesday...Water vapor shows strong
subsidence/dry air acrs our cwa this morning with deep northwest
flow aloft prevailing. This deep dry layer combined with nosing
sfc high pres will result in a dry and mostly sunny day. Temps
will be cool on northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph, with highs
mainly upper 50s to upper 60s acrs our cwa. This is supported by
progged 850mb temps btwn 1-3c acrs our fa this morning, which do
modify some by mid aftn. Whiteface is crntly 36f, which confirms
the progged 850mb temps acrs our fa. 

A period of unsettled weather is anticipated on Thursday, as
several embedded short waves in the northwest flow aloft cross
our fa. Very difficult to determine exact axis of highest
pops/qpf given the sharp gradient acrs our cwa. Have continued
with highest likely pops along and south of a mss to btv to mpv
line, but could see a secondary area of light rain associated
with 700mb fgen forcing slightly north of this region, based on
latest nam/gfs proggs. The other factor to watch is the
extremely sharp thermal gradient setting up just to our south,
if sfc low pres tracks a bit further north, we are warmer and
more unstable, resulting in a greater threat for thunderstorms.
SPC has slight risk just south of our cwa, with primary threat
mainly acrs central NY into southern New England. Temps on north
side of boundary will be cool with highs only in the upper 50s
to mid 60s, but lower 70s possible from southern SLV to southern
Rutland/Windsor counties. QPF will be a sharp southwest to
northeast gradient with 0.25 to 0.50 southwest to <0.10 acrs the
NEK, based on forcing and moisture fields. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 409 AM EDT Wednesday...Quiet weather expected Thursday night
into Friday as weak ridging pushes into the North Country. Lingering
low level moisture behind departing front will keep overnight
temperatures up near seasonable norms in the mid to upper 50s
(except NEK which should see lows in the mid 40s). Soundings show
fairly deep layer of moisture and with just enough winds in the
boundary layer expect low stratus to develop with a few spits of
rain possible, mainly across the high terrain. Pockets of fog may
develop in the most protected hollows, but do not anticipate at this
time to be widespread. Drier air moves in for Friday with partly
cloudy skies as diurnally driven cumulus clouds develop. Near
seasonable temperatures are expected in the low to mid 70s with no
precipitation expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Wednesday...The dry weather on Friday will come to
an end by Saturday morning as another system approaches the area.
Guidance is still on track for a widespread wetting rain throughout
the day on Saturday as digging upper level trough mingles with
moisture laden shortwave. PWATs continue to remain around 1.5-1.75"
and coupled with strong upper level diffluence periods of moderate
rain are likely across the North Country. General consensus is the
area should see between 0.50- 1.0" of rainfall, with locally higher
amounts possible. Still some subtle differences on exact track of
surface low pressure, with a shift to our north or south having
implications on precipitation amounts. Broad upper level trough
swings through on Sunday with continued cloudiness and chances for
light rain showers. Expect Sunday to the cooler of the two days with
highs on Saturday in the low to mid 70s and mid to upper 60s Sunday.
Still continues to look drier heading into the beginning of next
week with a return to near normal temperatures by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected the next 12 to 24
hours as sfc high pres builds into our taf sites. Breezy
northwest winds prevail at 5 to 15 knots with localized gusts up
to 20 knots, especially on Weds with deeper mixing develops.
Some lingering upslope clouds are possible at SLK/MPV with cigs
heights btwn 4000 and 6000 feet. Winds become lighter toward 00z
Thurs as mid lvl moisture begins to advect acrs our fa. 

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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