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SKIVT-L  August 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L August 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 28 Aug 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (261 lines)

Expires:202008282000;;935324
FPUS51 KBTV 281026
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Light and variable winds,
becoming northwest around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then mostly cloudy with
a slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s.
Light and variable winds, becoming southeast around 10 mph after
midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Breezy with highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:202008281100;;935656
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    60  54  80 E3        29.79R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    55  53  93 CALM      29.83R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    53  51  93 CALM      29.80R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     51  48  89 MISG      29.78R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      47  46  95 CALM      29.81R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    58  58 100 CALM      29.81R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    58  56  93 CALM      29.80R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      50  48  90 CALM      29.80R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      43  41  93 CALM      29.81R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    62  60  93 SW5       29.80S FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     39 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     46 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A NW20        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  52  67 MISG        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  54  72 W8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  57  82 E2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;935716
FXUS61 KBTV 281035
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
635 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will linger across the area this morning and give away 
to breaks of sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures will be 
slightly below normal for this time of year with highs mid 60s 
to mid 70s. An active Saturday is expected with several rounds 
of occasional showers and thunderstorms. The first round of 
mainly rain showers will be associated with a warm front on 
Saturday morning, followed by additional showers and 
thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. A 
few stronger storms are possible with gusty winds and small 
hail, along with frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Friday...Updated to adjust hrly temps and
clouds, which are having significant impacts on temps. Obs show
temps ranging from 38F at Island Pond to 61F here at BTV. Expect
clouds to dissipate this morning with strong subsidence aloft,
but additional clouds streak our way associated with upstream
convective debris clouds. Overall, temps warm into the mid 60s
to mid 70s with rain associated with a warm front arriving aft
06z tonight.

A weak leftover boundary remains acrs our cwa, with plenty of 
llvl moisture trapped below strong subsidence inversion. Given 
the very dry air signature on water vapor, expecting low clouds 
to dissipate by 15z this morning, but mid upper lvl clouds ahead
of our next system will be quickly developing in the aftn. 
Bottom line expect some breaks in the overcast, but clouds will 
influence temps, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. If
more sun develops for an extended period of time, readings 
could jump into the upper 70s to near 80f, especially warmer 
valleys. Tonight clouds continue to increase as 850 to 500mb 
moisture develops associated with favorable mid waa signature. 
Clouds thicken and lower with a band of showers developing btwn 
06-12z, and lifting from sw to ne acrs our cwa on Saturday 
morning. This idea is depicted nicely in the GFS/NAM 850 to 
700mb fgen and associated uvv's fields, along with favorable mid
lvl rh. Rainfall associated with warm front feature generally 
0.10 to 0.25 with isolated higher amounts, especially if some 
elevated instability develops on moderately strong 850mb jet of 
30 to 35 knots.

Saturday is starting to look more interesting in terms of convective
potential during the aftn/evening hours. Have had good discussion in
ops with my coworker, along with coordination with SPC and the key
factor in how robust our convection becomes will be driven off sfc
heating and amount of instability. Latest 00z guidance is trending
further northwest with sfc low pres track, which is closer to potent
upper lvl dynamics digging southeast acrs the Great Lakes. This
would place a warm front draped near the international border by 18z
as a strong cold front approaches the SLV. 

Many ingredients are coming together to support at least 
stronger storms with the potential for severe if enough 
instability develops. These favorable ingredients include a dual
250mb jet structure, supporting deep synoptic scale lift acrs 
our cwa btwn 18z-00z, potent 5h vort digging acrs the eastern 
Great Lakes with strong height falls, and 0 to 6 km shear values
of 45 to 55 knots. The questionable parameter is 
instability/cape with NAM/NAM 3KM/RAP and latest 06 HRRR showing
an axis of 1200 to 1800 j/kg developing acrs northern NY around
18z Sat and shifting eastward as the cold front pushes acrs our
cwa. Meanwhile, the gfs is much less amplified with downstream 
ridge and tracks sfc low pres directly overhead, resulting in 
more clouds/less heating and instability. This solution would 
support more showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Unlike many 
events this summer, dynamics and sfc convergence/boundary seem 
to be lining up during peak heating on Saturday aftn, supporting
the idea of more robust convective activity. 

Have investigated multiple model soundings and did note weak 
EML layer, along with pretty deep dry layer developing behind 
warm frontal precip, which will help to break up clouds, but 
could limit areal coverage of convection. My thinking is that we
have an active day with strong to severe thunderstorms 
possible, given thermodynamics and wind profiles both damaging 
winds and hail up to 1 inch will be possible, along with 
lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Have mention potential in 
HWO and will brief dayshift on my thoughts. Otherwise, progged 
925mb temps near 20c support highs at least into the mid 70s, 
but if a few hours of sun develop lower 80s is definitely 
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 432 AM EDT Friday...Back edge of front moves through Saturday
night with some lingering chances for thunder through the early
overnight hours as upper level trough and first of two surface
boundaries move through. CAA will be underway behind this front with
breezy westerly winds, especially across northern New York with
overnight winds will likely gusting between 20-30 mph. Continued
chances for rain showers will exist Saturday night, especially
across the high terrain due to orographic upslope flow (does anyone
else wish this was occurring in December). Winds shift around to the
NW Sunday morning behind the secondary cold front with breezy
conditions expected to remain, especially across Lake Champlain and
the higher terrain. Given scattered showers and cloudiness, Sunday
will feel quite fall-like with highs mid/upper 60s with NW winds
gusting 20-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 432 AM EDT Friday...Post frontal winds will begin to diminish
but remain Sunday night keeping overnight lows from dropping off
significantly. Expect lows in the upper 40s to low 50s (mid 50s
along/near Lake Champlain). Amplified ridge across the central US
begins to break down as it moves eastward. Monday is looking
beautiful with sunny skies and light winds with temperatures in the
mid 60s to around 70. Mid level flow begins to turn back around to
the SW with increasing moisture. Temps begin to creep back towards
seasonable levels by mid-week as ridge amplifies ahead of another
deep northern stream piece of energy. Precipitation chances will
increase towards the end of next week but differences in the
evolution of this feature make it difficult to pin-down any more
detail.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...MVFR CIGS continue at SLK/RUT, but should
improve by 15z, as llvl clouds quickly dissipate this morning.
VFR conditions prevail at our other taf sites today with light
and variable winds. Tonight, 925mb to 850mb winds increase as a
warm front approaches and rain showers develop aft 06z. The llvl
jet and nearly calm sfc winds will produce areas of wind shear
and turbulence as conditions trend toward mvfr by 09z. 

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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